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Mild Twist Flattening, PMIs and 2Y Supply Ahead

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsy yields sit 1.2bp higher (2-5Y) to 0.3bp lower (30Y), with the modest sell-off at the front-end in line with European FI but the long end underperforming a larger rally in EGBs/Gilts on limited new drivers.
  • TYM4 is near unchanged at 107-28+ (+01) after earlier touching yesterday’s high of 107-31. Volumes of ~300k are closer to longer-term averages for the time of data after some particularly high recent sessions.
  • The earlier increase was a small step closer to resistance at 108-22+ (Apr 19 high) but the trend needle points south with support tat 107-13+ (Apr 16 low) after which lies Fibo projection-based levels starting with 107-07+.
  • Fed Funds implied rates have lifted slightly but remain off most recent highs. Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 1bp May, 4bp Jun, 11bp Jul, 22bp Sep, 28bp Nov and 39bp Dec.
  • Data: Philly Fed non-mfg Apr (0830ET), S&P Global US PMIs Apr prelim (0945ET), Retail sales annual revisions (1000ET), New home sales Mar (1000ET), Richmond Fed mfg Apr (1000ET)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $69B 2Y Note auction (91282CKK6) – 1130ET. Last month's 2Y saw a small tail (4.595% high yield vs 4.592% WI)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $65B 42D Bill CMB auction – 1300ET
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