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Milder IP Contraction Excluding Ireland

EUROZONE DATA
MNI (London)

Eurozone industrial production experienced a milder contraction when reweighting index values to remove volatile Irish data.

  • Our calculations suggest a smaller -0.3% m/m in December (vs -1.1% reported EZ aggregate print) and a less sharp -1.1% y/y contraction (vs -1.7% reported).
  • In aggregate, the sector likely contracted by approx. -0.2% q/q in Q4, implying a downwards contribution to Q4 euro area GDP.
  • January PMI data suggests the pace of decline is easing, but they remain in contraction, implying we are yet to reach a trough.
  • With higher interest rates beginning to feed through, a rebound in IP appears unlikely for now.


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