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Milei Wins Argentina Runoff, Mexico Activity Data & CPI This Week

LATAM
  • As noted, the key news over the weekend was libertarian candidate Javier Milei winning the runoff of the Argentinian presidential election. His term begins December 10th, with Milei having won 56% versus economy minister Massa’s 44% (who is now set to take a leave of absence). The calendar in LatAm remains fairly light this week amid the US thanksgiving holiday. Highlights will be Mexico, CPI and GDP as well as Banxico minutes.
  • USD: The USD is weaker for a second session, prompting the USD Index to step lower and trade below the 200-dma for the first time since December last year. The JPY is comfortably the best performer, with USDJPY reaching a near seven-week low of 148.10.
  • US: Equity markets are trading well headed through to the Monday open, with the e-mini S&P within range of Friday's highs and helping underpin the bid in high beta currencies. The data calendar is muted Monday, keeping focus on Fed minutes, while Wednesday sees UMich sentiment and weekly jobless claims. On the speaker slate Monday, we have ECB's de Cos & Villeroy and Fed's Barkin.
  • EU: In an interview with Bloomberg, ECB's Wunsch states that bets on rate cuts risk prompting the ECB to hike instead, noting that markets are optimistic to rule out further hikes. Wunsch adds that rates should stay unchanged in both December and January.
  • China: Chinese regulators are drafting a list of 50 developers eligible for a range of financing, according to people familiar with the matter, the nation’s latest effort to put a floor under the property crisis.
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