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Minutes Preview: The 75 Decision, And Other Considerations (1/3)

FED

The minutes of the June FOMC meeting will be released at 1400ET (1900BST). With the usual caveat that developments since the meeting may render the minutes "stale" - this time around, since the 75bp June increase, those developments include rising recession fears and a sharp repricing lower in rate hike expectations - there are a few areas of interest:

  • Any more details surrounding the seemingly last-minute decision to go for a 75bp hike, instead of the 50bp raise signaled prior to the pre-FOMC blackout period. How much did the May CPI release and (especially given its later downward revision) the UMichigan inflation expectations survey impact the decision, and were there other considerations involved?
  • Any discussion on the criteria required to downshift to 50bp hikes, or ratcheting up to 100bp?
  • Did non-voters express disapproval of the 75bp hike (we already know KC's George dissented in favor of 50)?
  • Was there any talk of accelerating balance sheet runoff in light of high inflation readings?
  • On the more dovish end of things, did any participants see inflation as potentially peaking/having peaked?
  • And were there any concerns expressed about economic slowdown/recession?
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The minutes of the June FOMC meeting will be released at 1400ET (1900BST). With the usual caveat that developments since the meeting may render the minutes "stale" - this time around, since the 75bp June increase, those developments include rising recession fears and a sharp repricing lower in rate hike expectations - there are a few areas of interest:

  • Any more details surrounding the seemingly last-minute decision to go for a 75bp hike, instead of the 50bp raise signaled prior to the pre-FOMC blackout period. How much did the May CPI release and (especially given its later downward revision) the UMichigan inflation expectations survey impact the decision, and were there other considerations involved?
  • Any discussion on the criteria required to downshift to 50bp hikes, or ratcheting up to 100bp?
  • Did non-voters express disapproval of the 75bp hike (we already know KC's George dissented in favor of 50)?
  • Was there any talk of accelerating balance sheet runoff in light of high inflation readings?
  • On the more dovish end of things, did any participants see inflation as potentially peaking/having peaked?
  • And were there any concerns expressed about economic slowdown/recession?