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Mixed Stocks, Muted Risk Appetite, CPI Revisions

US STOCKS

US stocks open, trading mixed w/Dow Industrials gaining (106.17 points (0.3%) at 35191.16), SPX eminis modestly weaker (-5.75 points (-0.13%) at 4468.75) holding to narrow range, NASDAQ weaker (-39.4 points (-0.3%) at 13969.8). Risk appetite looks muted ahead of Thu's CPI inflation data, (0.6% revised, vs. 0.5% prior).

  • Technicals: SPX eminis still trading below recent highs and below the 50-day EMA that intersects at 4565.55 today. This average remains a key pivot resistance where a break is required to suggest scope for a stronger rally that would initially open 4671.75, the Jan 18 high. For bears, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 4212.75, the Jan 24 low and a key support.
  • On this morning's CPI seasonal revisions (data available on request, BLS site not updated until 1100ET), JP Morgan economists said the "underlying data (before seasonal adjustment) did not change, and the %oya price increases through December were unaffected and continue to look strong (headline: 7.0%, core: 5.5%)."
  • JPM posited the "story on inflation has not changed much—the headline CPI surged 8.9% saar over the three months through December (9.1% before the revisions), and the core CPI is now reported up 7.0% saar over these three months (6.9% before the revisions)."
  • JPM forecast for Thu's January CPI "is not meaningfully impacted by the revised seasonal factors, and we still look for 0.4% monthly increases in both the headline and core CPI measures, with the core change at 0.44% to two decimals."

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