Free Trial

Mixed Trade Figures, Trade Surplus Higher But Import Growth Softer Than Expected

CHINA DATA

The China trade figures for the Jan-Feb period present a picture that was similar to last year. That is, import growth weaker than exports, which is aiding the underlying trade surplus position. Exports came in slightly better than expected, -6.8% ytd y/y (-9.0% forecast), but imports were -10.2% ytd y/y, versus -5.5% forecast. The trade surplus was $116.88bn ytd, versus $82.50bn forecast.

  • At face value the market might be a little disappointed by the softer import number, given the domestic re-opening theme, which should be boosting domestic demand and therefore import demand.
  • It's possible the softer number reflected a price impact, given softer commodity prices. Volume numbers looked mixed with iron ore stronger, but crude oil slightly lower in y/y terms.
  • Exports were slightly better than expected, which was hinted at by the better tone to PMI new export order data. Still, a clearer picture won't emerge until we get March trade data, which will be released in April.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.