Free Trial

MNI 5 THINGS: BOJ Tankan: Biz Short-, Long-Term CPI Outlook Up

MNI (London)
--Dec Tankan Sees Japan Biz Medium-Term Infla Outlook Unchanged
     TOKYO (MNI) - The short- and long-term inflation outlook among Japanese
companies rose slightly from three months ago, but medium-term inflation outlook
was unchanged from September, indicating the pace of a pickup in consumer prices
will remain slow, the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey for December
showed .
     The inflation outlook follows Friday's main Tankan release, that showed
business sentiment was unchanged from three months ago, indicating that the
impact of global trade friction on businesses has so far been limited.
     However, looking ahead, sentiment among major companies is expected to
worsen on concerns over the impact of trade disputes and uncertainties over
overseas demand. Labor shortages in Japan are also pushing up costs.
     The survey, published Friday, was conducted from November 13 to December
13.
     The key points from the inflation outlook section of the Tankan follow.
     --In the December survey, companies on average saw a slightly faster pace
of increase in consumer prices for one and five years ahead, compared to the
previous survey, while leaving their inflation forecasts for three years ahead
unchanged.
     --Firms on average expect the annual consumer inflation rate at 0.9% a year
from now, up from 0.8% in September. Companies also expect a 1.2% rise five
years out, but they expect three years ahead numbers to be unchanged from
September.
     --Many companies -- 32% of those polled, (vs 33% in September) -- expect
the inflation rate to be about 1% in 12 months. The survey showed that 13% of
all firms (12% previously) projected 2% inflation a year ahead while 34% (36%
three months earlier) saw a flat inflation rate during the same period.
     --Smaller firms continued to project higher inflation than larger
corporations, as they tend to be hit harder by rising costs and a tighter labor
supply.
     --The survey showed companies on average expect sales prices to rise 0.8% a
year from now, unchanged from September. They saw an increase of 1.2% three
years ahead, down from +1.3% in September, but left their five-year sales price
forecast at 1.5%.
--MNI Tokyo Bureau; tel: +81 90-2175-0040; email: hiroshi.inoue@marketnews.com
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MAJDS$,MAUDR$,MAUDS$,MMJBJ$,MMUFE$,M$A$$$,M$J$$$,M$U$$$]
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.