MNI 5 Things: China To See Surplus in Apr; Exports To Rise

     BEIJING (MNI) - China's General Administration of Customs will release

April trade statistics on Tuesday. Below are five things we would be looking

for:

     - China April exports will likely rise, correcting the negative growth in

March. The median expectation for the figure is 8.0% y/y, compared with the 2.7%

decrease the month before and 6.9% increase last April. The latest PMIs for

China's three biggest trade partners (the U.S., the EU and Japan) have all been

performing well.

     - Imports in April will remain strong in line with the March figure of

14.4% y/y. The rise, if confirmed, will mark the 18th consecutive monthly

increase. Rising international crude oil and copper prices will contribute to

the rise.

     - The trade balance will return to surplus in April as seen in previous

years.

     - The China-US trade war is unlikely to impact the  trade  balance. The two

sides have reportedly narrowed their differences in "some trade issues", a

government trade advisor told MNI.

     - Trade with ASEAN and B&R (the Belt and Road Initiative) countries will

continue to rise in line with recent trends.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +86 (10) 8532-5998; email: flora.guo@marketnews.com

--MNI Singapore Bureau; +65 8233 2326; email: Asia-Editor@marketnews.com

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