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Free Access**MNI 5 THINGS: US Q2 GDP Unrevised At +4.2% As Expected>
--5 Things We Learned From The Third Estimate of Q2 GDP
By Kevin Kastner, Harrison Clarke, and Shikha Dave
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are the key points from the third
estimate of second quarter GDP data released Thursday by the Bureau of
Economic Analysis:
- Second quarter GDP was unrevised at +4.2% SAAR as in the third
estimate, in line with expectations. The GDP price index was unrevised
at +3.0%, while the headline PCE price index, and core PCE price index
were all revised upward by 0.1%. Analysts expect Hurricane Florence to
have a negative impact on third quarter growth, with a post-hurricane
rebound in the fourth quarter barring any other major storms.
- The alternative measure of real Gross Domestic Income was +1.6%
revised down from +1.8% in the previous estimate, putting the average of
the two measures at +2.9%, revised down from +3.0% previously. There is
a clear divergence between GDP and GDI so far in 2018.
- Behind the lack of adjustment to headline GDP were mixed
revisions to several measures. Nonresidential fixed investment was
revised upward to +8.7% from +8.5% in the second estimate. PCE growth
was unrevised from +3.8%, after a slight upward adjustment to goods
spending and a slight downward adjustment to services spending. The
savings rate was unrevised at 6.8%, still down from 7.2% in the previous
quarter.
- The prices measures were generally unrevised, with the GDP price
index still at +3.0%, while the closely watched core PCE was revised
upward slightly to +2.1% from +2.0%, holding the y/y rate at +1.9%,
still ahead of +1.7% in Q1.
- Real final sales of domestic product were revised upward to +5.4%
vs +5.3% in second estimate. Final sales to domestic purchasers were
revised upward to +4.0% from +3.9% in the second estimate.
** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **
[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.