MNI ANALYSIS: Australia Job Ads Down For Second Straight Month

--Job Ads Down Five Months In Last Nine

By Sophia Rodrigues

     SYDNEY (MNI) - Job advertisements in Australia fell for the second straight

month and for the fifth time in nine months, pointing to slowing in employment

growth and a risk that the jobless rate may not decline further.

     In level terms, the number of job advertisements in September was the

lowest so far this year at 175,555 and compares with 177,656 in January, data

published by ANZ Monday showed. The year-on-year growth slowed to 4.7%, the

lowest since December 2016. In trend terms, job ads was down 0.1% m/m for the

fourth straight month and the y/y pace at 4.9% was the slowest since May 2015. 

     ANZ's head of Australian economics David Plank said the level of job ads is

still consistent with further growth in employment but at a level that

stabilizes the unemployment rate rather than pushing it lower. 

     But Plank also noted that other indicators of jobs growth like the job

vacancies data published by Australian Bureau of Statistics was positive, and

suggests the jobless rate will most likely head lower over time.

     The Reserve Bank of Australia's outlook for the labor market remains

positive and in the cash rate statement published last week, they again pointed

to high vacancy rate and reports of skills shortages in some areas that are

supportive of the outlook for further gradual decline in the jobless rate and

further lift in wages growth.

     The outlook for the labor market is extremely important for the RBA's

monetary policy because Governor Philip Lowe has indicated that as long as the

labor market is improving, he wouldn't worry too much about low inflation.

     From the ANZ job advertisement survey for September:

                             September                      August

------------------------------------------------------------------

Job Ads (SA*, Change M/M)         -0.8  -0.7% (revised from -0.6%)

Job Ads (SA*, Change Y/Y)        +4.7%                       +5.1%

Job Ads (Trend, Change M/M)      -0.1%                       -0.1%

Job Ads (Trend, Change Y/Y)      +4.9%                       +5.8%

--MNI Sydney Bureau; tel: +61 2-9716-5467; email: sophia.rodrigues@marketnews.com

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