MNI ANALYSIS: China Exports On Uptrend Despite Yuan Strength

     BEIJING (MNI) - China's foreign trade continued its upward momentum in the

first four months in 2018, the latest trade statistics data from General

Administration of Customs showed. 

     China's exports in the Jan-Apr period rose 13.7% on year to USD745.73

billion, while imports rose by a stronger 19.6% year on year to USD668.98

billion, narrowing the surplus to USD76.75 billion, down 22.19% from a year

earlier.

     --EXPORTS REBOUNDED, BETTER GROWTH IN ASIA

     April exports rose by 12.9% year-on-year to USD200.44 billion, compared

with the 2.7% drop in March, beating MNI's surveyed 8.0% growth forecast.

     The strong rebound was led by continued stable demand from China's biggest

trade partners -- the U.S., the EU and Japan, where economies continue to

perform well.

     Meanwhile, China's trade with Asian countries, especially the Belt and Road

Initiative countries, increased greatly. OBOR countries total value grew by

11.6% year on year to CNY2.51 trillion (USD394.65 billion), which is 2.7

percentage points faster than the overall trade value growth.

--IMPORTS EXPAND ON ENCOURAGING POLICIES 

     China's imports increased by 21.5% from a year earlier to USD171.65 billion

in April, beating the market consensus of 16.0% growth and marking the 18th

consecutive single month rise.

     However, looking at the growth rate in yuan terms may cool optimistic

sentiment -- April imports rose only 11.6% year on year -- almost half of the

reading in dollar terms. That is a result of US dollar's depreciation against

Chinese yuan over the last 12 months, which has dropped over 8% against the yuan

in recent one year, MNI calculations show.

     --CHINA SEEKING BETTER TRADE STRUCTURE  

     General trade rose 12.8% in the first four months to CNY5.34 trillion

(USD839.62 billion), amounting to 58.6% of the total trade value, 2 percentage

points more than it was in the same period last year.

     At the same time, private enterprises are making bigger contributions --

their trade value amounted to 38.6% of the total value, compared with 37.4% in

last April.

     Export products are also changing, with more mechanical products and less

labour-intensive products exported in the period.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +86 (10) 8532-5998; email: flora.guo@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

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