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ECB Preview - September 2020: Uneventful, But Still 'Live'

MNI ANALYSIS: ECB Preview - September 2020

Uneventful, But Still 'Live'

  • No material changes in monetary policy are expected at this week's GC meeting.
  • Markets will be focused primarily on the ECBs response to recent EUR strength and the Fed's adoption of AIT.
  • While there may be some adjustment to the staff macroeconomic projections, provided that the baseline is still intact there will be no urgency to ease further at this stage.
  • The ECB will likely need to readdress its monetary stance by end-year with PEPP being the first port of call for delivering further stimulus.

This week's Governing Council meeting should be relatively uneventful, but still 'live'. Having successfully quashed financial fragmentation risks through successive upgrades to the PEPP and with economic uncertainty still high, the ECB is likely to sit on the sidelines for now until there is more clarity on the recovery path. However, issues such as the recent EUR strength, build-up in excess liquidity and the sufficiency of the current PEPP envelope, suggest that the risks for this meeting are still tilted towards further easing.

For the full publication please see: MNI ECB PREVIEW: September 2020

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