/MNI ANALYSIS: Fed Update: All Signs Point To...>

FED: /MNI ANALYSIS: Fed Update: All Signs Point To Neutral (Nov 2019)

- The FOMC is settling in for winter, with all signs pointing to a hold in the

Fed Funds target rate in December. Here we give a Fed Communications update

(p.1-3), followed by our Sell-Side Outlook (p.4 - 30 of 31 analysts see no

change in rates at Dec FOMC), and our Policy Team's recap of the October FOMC

meeting minutes (p.5), released Nov. 20.

- We have made several changes to our Hawk-Dove Spectrum based on recent

communications, moving all members away from `easing` territory and toward

neutral.

- On the Sell-Side, 30 of 31 analysts believe the Fed is done cutting rates for

2019. This has changed: 11 analysts (incl Deutsche, Barclays, JPM, BofAML) had

previously seen another cut in Dec, but now see the Fed staying on hold. In

total, 14 now see no further action over the medium term (up from 10 pre-Oct

FOMC).

- For full analysis, see email sent to subscribers or contact us.