MNI Asia Morning FX Analysis: US$ Weaker Post Data

FOREX: ​USD Under Pressure Post PPI

US data came above expectations, so the move was unrelated. USD tested low against multiple pairs, EUR, GBP, AUD, CNY, CNH, CHF, JPY, SGD, ILS, and NOK.

• Largest moves observed in GBP, with Cable recovering losses. Latest Brexit headline from the UK, noted that some progress have been made this week.
• Oil traded firmer, Brent and WTI over Tue's highs, mainly driven by the USD, and no spillovers noted in petro currencies.
• EMFX have benefited from the wide range USD selling, and TRY off record high now at 7.9000.
• Federal Reserve will do all it can to bring about low unemployment but that alone would not be enough to trigger interest rate hikes. Packed speaker schedule ahead includes Fed Quarles, Logan and Kaplan; BoE Haldane and RBA Lowe.
• All eyes remains on US stimulus, Covid spikes and Thu's EU Summit.

EURUSD: Probed Key Short-Term Support

• RES 4: 1.2011 High Sep 1 and major resistance
• RES 3: 1.1917 High Sep 10 and 76.4% of the Sep 1 - 25 sell-off
• RES 2: 1.1859 61.8% retracement of the Sep 1 - 25 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.1817/31 High Oct 13 / High Oct 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.1754 @ 18:04 BST Oct 14
• SUP 1: 1.1720 Low Oct 14
• SUP 2: 1.1685 Low Sep 30
• SUP 3: 1.1612/1581 Low Sep 25 and the bear trigger / Low Jul 24
• SUP 4: 1.1584 100-dma

EURUSD traded lower Wednesday but did manage to find support at the day low. Attention has been on key support at 1.1725, Oct 7 low. This level was probed Wednesday. A clear break would negate recent bullish signals and signal scope for deeper pullback, exposing 1.1612, Sep 25 low and the key bear trigger. A move higher would again refocus attention on key resistance at 1.1831, Oct 10 high. A break of this level resumes recent bullish pressure.

GBPUSD: Choppy And Bounces Off The Day Low

• RES 4: 1.2280 High Sep 7
• RES 3: 1.3174 61.8% retracement of the Sep 1 - 23 sell-off
• RES 2: 1.3163 Former trendline support drawn off the Mar 20 low
• RES 1: 1.3083 High Oct 12
• PRICE: 1.3029 @ 18:13 BST Oct 14
• SUP 1: 1.2863 Low Oct 14
• SUP 2: 1.2846 Low Oct 7 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 1.2806 Low Sep 30
• SUP 4: 1.2745 Low Sep 28

EURGBP: Confirms A Fresh Trend Low Print 

• RES 4: 0.9190 61.8% retracement of the Sep 11 - 28 sell-off
• RES 3: 0.9162 High Oct 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.9132 High Oct 10
• RES 1: 0.9122 Oct 14 high
• PRICE: 0.9024 @ 18:21 BST Oct 14
• SUP 1: 0.9007 Low Oct 14
• SUP 2: 0.9000 Round number support
• SUP 3: 0.8967 76.4% retracement of the Sep 3 - 11 rally
• SUP 4: 0.8808 Low May 13

EURGBP traded sharply lower Wednesday and breached Tuesday's low. The break lower followed another failed attempt to convincingly clear trendline resistance drawn off the Sep high and this weighs on the cross. The move lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend that has been in place since Sep 11 and sets the scene for a move to 0.9000 and below towards 0.8967, a retracement level. Resistance is at 0.9122, the Oct 14 high.

USDJPY: Extends This Week’s Slide

• RES 4: 106.62 Bear channel resistance drawn off the Mar 24 high
• RES 3: 106.55 High Sep 3
• RES 2: 106.11/38 High Oct 7 and the bull trigger / High Sep 8
• RES 1: 105.85 High Oct 12
• PRICE: 105.12 @ 18:29 BST Oct 14
• SUP 1: 105.04 Low Oct 14
• SUP 2: 104.94 Low Oct 2 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 104.41 Low Sep 22
• SUP 4: 104.00 Low Sep 21 and the bear trigger

USDJPY traded lower Wednesday extending this week's slide and the recent pullback from last week's 106.11 high on Oct 7. Intraday momentum studies still point south however, to strengthen a bearish theme price needs to trade below 104.94, Oct 2 low. This would open 104.00, Sep 21 low. While 104.94 remains intact, the current sell-off is considered a correction following recent gains. The bull trigger is at 106.11, Oct 7 high. Initial resistance is at 105.85.

EURJPY: Extends This Week’s Downleg

• RES 4: 126.46 High Sep 10 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 125.77 High Sep 15
• RES 2: 125.09/28 High Oct 9 / 61.8% of the Sep 1 - 28 sell-off
• RES 1: 124.48 High Oct 13
• PRICE: 123.53 @ 18:32 BST Oct 14
• SUP 1: 123.31 Low Oct 5
• SUP 2: 123.03 Low Sep 29 and Oct 2 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 122.38/28 Low Sep 28 / 61.8% of the Jun 22 - Sep 1 rally
• SUP 4: 122.25 38.2% retracement of the May - Sep rally

EURJPY remains softer this week, trading lower once again Wednesday. While near term weakness is considered a correction, attention turns to support at 123.03, Oct 6 low with the former support at 123.86, Oct 6 low breached. The move below 123.86 strengthens the intraday bearish tone and clearance of 123.03 would highlight scope for a deeper pullback. Key resistance is at 125.09, Oct 9 high. A break would resume bullish pressure.

AUDUSD: Trendline Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 0.7318 High Sep 21
• RES 3: 0.7258 61.8% retracement September Sell-Off
• RES 2: 0.7243 High Oct 10 and the intraday bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.7213 Trendline resistance drawn off the Sep 1 high
• PRICE: 0.7167 @ 18:40 BST Oct 14
• SUP 1: 0.7150 Low Oct 13
• SUP 2: 0.7096 Low Oct 7 and the near-term bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.7070 Low Sep 29
• SUP 4: 0.7006 Low Sep 25 and the bear trigger

On Oct 9, AUDUSD cleared resistance at 0.7209, Oct 1 and 6 high. This brought the pair into contact with trendline resistance drawn off the Sep 1 high. The line intersects at 0.7213 today. Clearance of the Oct 9 high of 0.7243 would confirm a breach of the line and reinforce S/T bullish conditions, opening 0.7258, a Fibonacci retracement. Tuesday's print below support at 0.7161, Sep 9 low, however signals a failure at the trendline.

USDCAD: Remains Bearish Despite Minor Recovery

• RES 4: 1.3341 High Oct 7 and a reversal trigger
• RES 3: 1.3273 High Oct 7 and 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.3233 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3202 Oct 9 high
• PRICE: 1.3142 @ 18:43 BST Oct 14
• SUP 1: 1.3099 Low Oct 13
• SUP 2: 1.3095 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - 30 rally
• SUP 3: 1.3038 Low Sep 2
• SUP 4: 1.2994 Low Sep 1

USDCAD edged lower again Tuesday, extending the pullback that started on Sep 30. The pair however recently found support but despite the bounce, remains bearish. Recent weakness follows the clear break on Oct 8 of trendline support drawn off the Sep 1 low. 1.3157, a Fibonacci retracement has been cleared paving the way for a move towards 1.3095. Initial resistance is at the Oct 9 high of 1.3202. Heavy!

KEY LEVELS

• $1.1925 Upper Bollinger Band (3%)
• $1.1881 Upper 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• $1.1874 Cloud to
• $1.1865 Upper Bollinger Band (2%)
• $1.1851/56 Jun14-2018 high/100-mma
• $1.1815 Sep24-2018 high
• $1.1799/00 50-dma/55-dma
• $1.1783 100-hma
• $1.1771/72 Intraday high/200-hma
• $1.1757 Sep27-2018 high
• $1.1749 ***CURRENT MARKET PRICE 16:22GMT WEDNESDAY***
• $1.1748 21-dma
• $1.1736 Fibo 38.2% 1.3993-1.0341
• $1.1720 Intraday low
• $1.1651/46 Sep28-2018 high/Lower 1.0% 10-dma env
• $1.1629/25 Down Trendline from Jul18-2008/Lower Boll Band (2%)
• $1.1621 Oct16-2018 high
• $1.1613 161.8% swing $1.1497-1.1309
• $1.1598 Cloud base
• $1.1591 100-dma
• $1.1570/65 Jan10-2019 high/Lower Boll Band (3%)

• $1.3185 May06-2019 high
• $1.3144 Fibo 38.2% 1.4377-1.2382
• $1.3131/33 May07-2019 high/Apr12-2019 high
• $1.3109 Fibo 50% 1.1841-1.4377
• $1.3096 Upper Bollinger Band (2%)
• $1.3089 Upper 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• $1.3080 May08-2019 high
• $1.3064 Intraday high
• $1.3030 55-dma
• $1.3024 50-dma
• $1.3018 ***CURRENT MARKET PRICE 16:22GMT WEDNESDAY***
• $1.3013 Oct21-2019 high
• $1.3001/00 100-hma/Oct22-2019 high
• $1.2985 Nov18-2019 high
• $1.2970/68 Nov21-2019 high, Nov19-2019 high/200-hma
• $1.2952/51 50-mma/Nov28-2019 high
• $1.2944/40 Nov29-2019 high/200-wma
• $1.2897 21-dma
• $1.2879 Nov29-2019 low
• $1.2867/63 Cloud base/Intraday low
• $1.2830/27/25 Lower 1.0% 10-dma env/Nov27-2019 low/100-dma

• Gbp0.9203/05 Sep08-2017 high/Upper Boll Band (2%)
• Gbp0.9168 Upper 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• Gbp0.9134 Sep11-2017 high
• Gbp0.9121 Intraday high
• Gbp0.9108/09 Jan03-2019 high/21-dma
• Gbp0.9078 200-hma
• Gbp0.9062/65 Jan11-2019 high/100-hma
• Gbp0.9057/60 55-dma/50-dma
• Gbp0.9048/51 Jul16-2019 high/Jul17-2019 high
• Gbp0.9038/39 100-dma/Jul18-2019 high
• Gbp0.9024 ***CURRENT MARKET PRICE 16:22GMT WEDNESDAY***
• Gbp0.9021 Cloud top
• Gbp0.9014/10 Lower Boll Band (2%)/Jul10-2019 high
• Gbp0.9007/05 Intraday low/Jul23-2019 high
• Gbp0.9000 Jul22-2019 high
• Gbp0.8986 Lower 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• Gbp0.8969/66 Cloud base/Lower Boll Band (3%)
• Gbp0.8953 Jul23-2019 low
• Gbp0.8921 Jul02-2019 low
• Gbp0.8895 Lower 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• Gbp0.8874/73/72 Jun19-2019 low/Jun20-2019 low/200-dma, Jun12-2019 low

• Y106.19 Upper Bollinger Band (2%)
• Y106.18 Cloud top
• Y106.08 Cloud base
• Y105.78 50-dma
• Y105.76 55-dma
• Y105.64 200-hma
• Y105.53 Cloud Tenkan Sen
• Y105.52 Intraday high, 100-hma
• Y105.36 21-dma
• Y105.15 Cloud Kijun Sen
• Y105.15 ***CURRENT MARKET PRICE 16:22GMT WEDNESDAY***
• Y105.04 Intraday low
• Y104.87 Jan03-2019 low
• Y104.58 Lower Bollinger Band (2%)
• Y104.56 Mar26-2018 low
• Y104.52 Lower 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• Y104.18 Lower Bollinger Band (3%)
• Y103.94 200-mma
• Y103.47 Lower 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• Y102.41 Lower 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• Y101.20 Nov09-2016 low

• Y124.34 100-hma, Apr01-2019 low
• Y124.25 May07-2019 high
• Y124.22 Fibo 38.2% 133.13-118.71
• Y124.14 Fibo 38.2% 118.71-127.50
• Y124.06 Cloud Tenkan Sen
• Y123.94 Intraday high
• Y123.79 21-dma
• Y123.74 May21-2019 high
• Y123.72 Fibo 61.8% 115.21-137.50
• Y123.57 Cloud base
• Y123.53 ***CURRENT MARKET PRICE 16:22GMT WEDNESDAY***
• Y123.51/47 May22-2019 high/Intraday low
• Y123.35 100-dma
• Y123.18 Jun11-2019 high
• Y123.11 Fibo 50% 118.71-127.50
• Y123.01 Jun12-2019 high
• Y122.96 Lower 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• Y122.56 Jun13-2019 high
• Y122.46 Lower Bollinger Band (2%)
• Y122.23 Jul12-2019 high
• Y122.13 Jun17-2019 high

• $0.7295 Jan31-2019 high
• $0.7286 Cloud top
• $0.7274 Dec06-2018 high
• $0.7263 50-mma
• $0.7242/45 Upper 1.0% 10-dma env/200-wma
• $0.7209 50-dma
• $0.7205/06/07 55-dma/Apr17-2019 high/Feb21-2019 high
• $0.7191/92 Intraday high/100-hma
• $0.7174 200-hma
• $0.7168 21-dma
• $0.7162 ***CURRENT MARKET PRICE 16:22GMT WEDNESDAY***
• $0.7153 Apr17-2019 low, Intraday low
• $0.7140 Apr16-2019 low
• $0.7124 Cloud base
• $0.7116 Apr12-2019 low
• $0.7110 Apr10-2019 low
• $0.7099 Lower 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• $0.7089/88 100-dma/Apr08-2019 low
• $0.7073/69 Mar29-2019 low/Apr30-2019 high
• $0.7057/53 Jul22-2019 high/Apr02-2019 low
• $0.7048/44 Jul04-2019 high, May07-2019 high/Jul16-2019 high

• C$1.3328 Nov20-2019 high
• C$1.3314 Nov29-2019 high
• C$1.3260/63 Nov27-2019 low/21-dma
• C$1.3255 Nov22-2019 low
• C$1.3231 55-dma
• C$1.3218 50-dma
• C$1.3205 200-hma
• C$1.3191 Nov19-2019 low
• C$1.3175 50-mma
• C$1.3162/63 Cloud base/Intraday high, 200-wma
• C$1.3148 ***CURRENT MARKET PRICE 16:22GMT WEDNESDAY***
• C$1.3138 100-hma
• C$1.3117 Intraday low
• C$1.3082/80 Lower 1.0% 10-dma env/Lower Boll Band (2%)
• C$1.3066 Fibo 38.2% 1.4690-1.2062
• C$1.3053 Fibo 38.2% 1.2062-1.3665
• C$1.3015 Oct25-2018 low
• C$1.2986 Lower Bollinger Band (3%)
• C$1.2976 YTD low
• C$1.2970 Oct24-2018 low
• C$1.2950 Lower 2.0% 10-dma envelope

Expiries For Oct15 NY Cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)

• EUR/USD: $1.1675(E564mln), $1.1695-1.1700(E960mln), $1.1725-30(E528mln), $1.1800(E1.1bln), $1.1820-30(E663mln), $1.1845-55(E1.1bln), $1.1870-75(E815mln)
• USD/JPY: Y104.80-85($1.6bln), Y105.00-10($1.6bln), Y105.20-30($3.3bln), Y106.05-15($1.3bln), Y106.25-30($887mln), Y106.50-55($867mln)
• GBP/USD: $1.2980(Gbp616mln), $1.3100(Gbp422mln)
• AUD/USD: $0.7220-30(A$626mln)
• USD/CNY: Cny6.7000-6.7050($1.1bln-USD puts), Cny6.75($785mln)
• -----------------------------------
• Larger Option Pipeline
• EUR/USD: Oct16 $1.1800(E2.5bln-E2.32bln of EUR calls), $1.1845-50(E1.1bln); Oct22 $1.1600(E1.2bln), $1.1645-50(E1.5bln); Oct23 $1.2000(E1.3bln); Oct26 $1.1500(E1.8bln), $1.1650-60(E1.4bln)
  
• USD/JPY: Oct16 Y104.50($1.5bln), Y105.00-04($1.5bln); Oct19 Y106.00($1.1bln); Oct20 Y106.35-44($2.3bln-USD calls); Oct21 Y105.00-10($1.6bln), Y105.90-106.00($2.2bln), Y106.65($1.0bln); Oct22 Y104.50-55($1.8bln), Y105.95-106.00($1.2bln); Oct26 Y103.95-104.00($1.5bln-USD puts), Y106.95-107.00($1.6bln)
• AUD/JPY: Oct22 Y76.44(A$2.1bln)
• AUD/NZD: Oct27 N$1.0809-20(A$2.5bln)
• USD/CNY: Oct19 Cny6.7735($1.0bln)