MNI Asian Morning FI Technical Analysis

2 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/phluope

AUSSIE 3-YR TECHS: (H18) 97.770-815 Support Region Key 

*RES 4: 97.903 - 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 97.902 - 100-DMA, Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 97.855 - High Jan 10 

*RES 1: 97.840 - High Feb 1

*PRICE: 97.820 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 97.815 - High Jan 31 now support 

*SUP 2: 97.770 - High Jan 24 now support 

*SUP 3: 97.705 - Low Jan 31 

*SUP 4: 97.690 - 2018 Low Jan 19

*COMMENTARY: The aggressive rally Wednesday eased immediate bearish pressure

with bulls gaining confidence on the close above 97.815. Bulls now look for a

close above 97.855 to confirm focus on 97.902-960 where 55 & 100-DMAs are

situated. Bears need a close below 97.815 to gain breathing room and below

97.770 to see focus return to the 97.690-705 support region. Above the 55-DMA is

needed to add support to the case for a test the 200-DMA (98.003).

     AUSSIE 10-YR TECHS: (H18) 97.2200 Resistance Remains Key 

*RES 4: 97.2200 - Hourly support Jan 17 now resistance

*RES 3: 97.2098 - 21-DMA

*RES 2: 97.2050 - High Jan 24

*RES 1: 97.1950 - High Jan 31

*PRICE: 97.1700 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 97.1450 - Low Jan 31

*SUP 2: 97.1050 - 2018 Low Jan 22

*SUP 3: 97.0900 - Monthly Low Oct 3

*SUP 4: 97.0750 - Monthly Low Sept 21

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of recent 2018 lows is less than ideal given daily

studies correcting from O/S and sees pressure back on key resistance layers.

Bulls need a close above 97.2200 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift

initial focus to 97.2800-4000 where the bear channel top and key DMAs are

located. Initial support is now seen at 97.1450 with bears needing a close below

to ease pressure on the 21-DMA and focus on 97.0750-0900.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 121-31

*RES 4: 122-04+ Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance

*RES 3: 121-31 Low Jan 25 now resistance

*RES 2: 121-22 Hourly resistance Jan 31

*RES 1: 121-10+ Low Jan 31 now resistance

*PRICE: 121-05 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 121-01+ Daily Bear channel base

*SUP 2: 120-25+ Low Apr 29 2011

*SUP 3: 119-24 Low Apr 21 2011

*SUP 4: 118-24 Low Apr 13 2011

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 and 6+ year lows leave the contract looking offered and

pressuring the bear channel base. Bears look for a close below 120-25+ to shift

focus to the 117-29+/119-24 support region last seen in Apr 2011. O/S daily

studies remain the key concern for bears. Bulls now need a close above 121-22 to

gain breathing room and above 121-31 to hint at a correction back to 122-19+/20

where the 21-DMA is located.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Pressuring Bull Channel Top

*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 3: 2.912 - High Jan 15 2014 

*RES 2: 2.821 - Monthly High Mar 7 2014 

*RES 1: 2.806 - Daily Bull channel top

*PRICE: 2.790 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 2.754 - High Jan 31 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.696 - Low Jan 31 

*SUP 3: 2.676 - High Jan 25 now support 

*SUP 4: 2.654 - Hourly support Jan 26

*COMMENTARY: The 2.609 support provided the base for repeated 2018 & 3+ year

highs with immediate bullish focus on 2.806-912 and overall focus on 3.041 2014

highs. The Bollinger band top (2.784) and O/B studies remain concerns for bulls.

Layers of support are building with bears needing a close below 2.754 to gain

breathing room and below 2.654 to shift focus back to 2.571-609 where the 21-DMA

(2.598) is noted.

     JGB TECHS: (H18) 150.06 Support Remains Key 

*RES 4: 150.40 - 21-DMA

*RES 3: 150.38 - Hourly support Jan 26 now resistance

*RES 2: 150.28 - Hourly resistance Feb 1a

*RES 1: 150.21 - Hourly resistance Feb 1

*PRICE: 150.13 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 150.12 - 2018 Low Jan 30 

*SUP 2: 150.08 - Monthly Low Oct 3 

*SUP 3: 150.06 - Low July 20 

*SUP 4: 149.92 - Low July 14

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows has remained capped ahead of the 21-DMA

with bulls needing a close above 150.46 to ease bearish pressure. Above the

200-DMA (150.62) is needed to hint at a shift higher in focus with above 150.84

to target 151.19 Nov highs. Bears focus on the close below 150.06 needed to add

weight to the case for a move targeting the 200-WMA (149.22).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]