MNI Asian Morning FI Technical Analysis

22 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/phluope

AUSSIE 3-YR TECHS: (M18) Bulls Now Need Close Above 55-DMA 

*RES 4: 97.935 - High Mar 15 

*RES 3: 97.906 - 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 97.870 - Lows Mar 16 & 19 now resistance 

*RES 1: 97.840 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: 97.805 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 97.745 - Low Mar 21 

*SUP 2: 97.705 - 2018 Low Jan 31 

*SUP 3: 97.604 - 2015 Low Dec 15 2015 

*SUP 4: 97.550 - Monthly Low Dec 3 2014

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 55-DMA has taken its toll with an aggressive break

although follow through has been lacking with the Bollinger base noted at

97.819. The 55-DMA is now key resistance with bulls needing a close above to

ease bearish pressure and above the 100-DMA to return focus to 97.935-993 where

key WMAs, the 200-DMA and daily bear channel top are noted. are noted. Bears

focus on 2018 lows while the 55-DMA caps.

     AUSSIE 10-YR TECHS: (M18) Aggressive Bounce Ahead of 55-DMA 

*RES 4: 97.3850 - 2018 High Jan 8

*RES 3: 97.3242 - Bollinger band top

*RES 2: 97.3202 - 55-WMA

*RES 1: 97.3150 - High Mar 20

*PRICE: 97.2700 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 97.2550 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*SUP 2: 97.2000 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 97.1750 - Hourly resistance Feb 23 now support

*SUP 4: 97.1518 - Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation has taken its toll with the sell-off seeing a

dip back towards 97.1750-2000 before being aggressively reversed ahead of the

55-DMA. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 55-WMA to initially target

97.3850 2018 highs. Bears now look for a close below 97.1750 to confirm a break

of the 55-DMA, ending bullish hopes and seeing focus back on 97.0450-0800 where

2018 lows are found.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) Bouncing From Key Supports

*RES 4: 120-23  High Mar 1

*RES 3: 120-20  Bollinger band top

*RES 2: 120-16  High Mar 19

*RES 1: 120-08  High Mar 21

*PRICE: 120-04+ @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 119-21+ Repeated Daily lows Feb, Bollinger base

*SUP 2: 119-14  Monthly Low Feb 15

*SUP 3: 118-24  Low Apr 13 2011

*SUP 4: 117-29+ Monthly Low Apr 8 2011

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through and bounce from the 119-14/21+ support

region is less than ideal for bears with the Bollinger base noted at 119-21+.

Bears look for a close below 119-14 to initially target 117-29+/118-24 last seen

in Apr 2011. Bulls need a close above 120-08 to ease bearish pressure. Overall a

close above the 121-01+ is needed to end bearish hopes and initially target

122-02. The Bollinger base (119-20+) is the key concern for bears.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: 3.073 - Low July 6 2011 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 2: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21 

*RES 1: 2.933 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: 2.881 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 2.869 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 2.852 - Low Mar 20 

*SUP 3: 2.833 - Low Mar 19 

*SUP 4: 2.793 - Low Mar 2

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through is less than ideal for bulls

with the Bollinger band top capping. The 21-DMA is now initial support with

bears needing a close below to gain breathing room and below 2.833 to shift

focus back to 2.754-793. Bears now need a close below the 55-DMA (2.754) to end

bullish hopes and initially target 2.585-648. Bulls continue to look for a close

above 2.957 2018 highs to shift focus back to tests of 3.041 2014 highs.

     JGB TECHS: (M18) 21-DMA Now Capping

*RES 4: 151.15 - 2018 High Mar 2

*RES 3: 151.06 - High Mar 12

*RES 2: 150.97 - Low Mar 13 now resistance

*RES 1: 150.91 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: 150.82 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 150.73 - High Mar 14 now support 

*SUP 2: 150.67 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: 150.62 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: 150.55 - Low Mar 2

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 200-DMA tests that defined last week is

struggling with follow through lacking above the 21-DMA. Bulls need a close

above 150.97 to confirm focus on layers of resistance 151.15-19. The contract is

looking a little heavy with the 21-DMA capping and hints at a correction

initially targeting 150.62-73 where key DMAs are clustered. Below 150.55 is

needed to target 150.36 and then 150.08-09 where 2018 and Oct lows are noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]