MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

1 August 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7934 & $0.8018 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: $0.8163 - Monthly High May 14 2015 

*RES 3: $0.8117 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $0.8065 - 2017 High July 27 

*RES 1: $0.8018 - Hourly resistance July 27

*PRICE: $0.7998 @ 2100GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7934 - Low July 28 

*SUP 2: $0.7905 - Hourly support July 25 

*SUP 3: $0.7874 - Low July 21 

*SUP 4: $0.7838 - High July 17 now support

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on fresh 2017 and 26mth highs

last week remains a concern for bulls when combined with daily studies looking

to correct from O/B and momentum divergence. Bears need a close below $0.7934 to

shift focus back to $0.7838-74. A close below $0.7838 is needed to end bullish

hopes and shift focus back to $0.7749-03 where the 21-DMA ($0.7802) is located.

Bulls need a close above $0.8018 to reconfirm focus on $0.8163.

KIWI TECHS: $0.7458 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: $0.7577 - High May 5 2015 

*RES 3: $0.7528 - 2017 High July 27 

*RES 2: $0.7536 - Hourly resistance July 27a 

*RES 1: $0.7524 - High July 28

*PRICE: $0.7506 @ 2100GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7489 - Hourly support July 31

*SUP 2: $0.7458 - High July 21 now support

*SUP 3: $0.7408 - Low July 26

*SUP 4: $0.7391 - Low July 21

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on 2017 and 26mth highs last

week was less than ideal for bulls given daily studies looking to correct from

O/B. Bears continue to look for a close below $0.7458 to confirm an easing of

bullish pressure and to shift focus back to $0.7391-0.7408. Layers of resistance

remain with bulls needing a close above $0.7536 to retain focus on

$0.7577-0.7623 where 2015 highs and the bull channel top are located.

AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Recovers From Below 21 & 200-DMAs

*RES 4: NZ$1.0731 - Low July 20 now resistance

*RES 3: NZ$1.0713 - High July 26

*RES 2: NZ$1.0680 - High July 27

*RES 1: NZ$1.0671 - 100-DMA

*PRICE: NZ$1.0647 @ 2100GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0606 - 200-DMA

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0595 - 21-DMA

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0588 - Low July 31

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0548 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The pair found support on a dip below the 21 & 200-DMA Monday

providing bulls with hope and seeing pressure back on NZ$1.0671-80 where the

100-DMA is located. Bulls now look for a close above NZ$1.0731 to confirm a

break of the 100-DMA and to shift immediate focus to tests of July highs

(NZ$1.0845). The NZ$1.0548-1.0606 support region remains key. Bears need a close

below the 55-DMA to shift focus back to 2017 lows.

AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Supported Ahead Of 21-DMA

*RES 4: Y89.47 - Low Dec 7 2015 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y89.41 - 2017 High July 27 

*RES 2: Y88.81 - High July 28 

*RES 1: Y88.35 - High July 31

*PRICE: Y88.21 @ 2100GMT

*SUP 1: Y87.84 - Low July 31

*SUP 2: Y87.68 - 21-DMA

*SUP 3: Y87.45 - Hourly support July 13

*SUP 4: Y87.24 - High Mar 20 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the bounce from ahead of the 21-DMA following

the break of the Y88.17 support. The Y87.45-88.35 support region remains key.

Bears need a close below Y87.45 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift focus

back to Y85.67. Layers of resistance building is a concern for bulls who need a

close above Y88.81 to gain breathing room and return immediate focus to 2017

highs.

EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 55-DMA 

*RES 4: A$1.4973 - Daily Bear channel top

*RES 3: A$1.4926 - Low July 11 now resistance

*RES 2: A$1.4858 - 55-DMA

*RES 1: A$1.4809 - High July 31

*PRICE: A$1.4797 @ 2100GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.4773 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: A$1.4755 - Hourly resistance July 31 now support 

*SUP 3: A$1.4684 - Low July 31 

*SUP 4: A$1.4643 - Low July 28

*COMMENTARY: The close above the 21-DMA provides bulls comfort with a close

above the 55-DMA now needed to shift focus to layers of resistance

A$1.4926-1.5078 where the daily bear channel top is located. The 21-DMA is

initial support but bears need a close below A$1.4755 to ease immediate bullish

pressure and below A$1.4684 to shift focus back to A$1.4563-1.4645 where the

100-DMA is located. Daily studies have room to move before O/B becomes an issue.

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 200-WMA In The Sights

*RES 4: 94.285 - High July 26 

*RES 3: 94.103 - High July 27 

*RES 2: 93.650 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 1: 93.161 - Hourly resistance July 31

*PRICE: 92.807 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 92.794 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 2: 92.330 - 200-WMA

*SUP 3: 91.919 - 2016 Low May 3 2016

*SUP 4: 91.514 - Low Jan 15 2015

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on Thursday's lack of downside follow

through with bears reasserting dominance and immediate pressure now on

91.919-92.330 where the 200-WMA is located. O/S daily studies remain the key

concern for bears. Bulls still need a close above 93.650 to ease bullish

pressure and above 94.602 to shift focus to 94.913-95.464 where the 21-DMA

(94.913) is noted.

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Immediate Focus On $1.1870

*RES 4: $1.2352 High Dec 18 2014 

*RES 3: $1.2254 High Dec 25 2014 

*RES 2: $1.2095 Low Dec 31 2014 now resistance

*RES 1: $1.1870 High Jan 12 2015

*PRICE: $1.1838 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1806 Hourly support July 31 

*SUP 2: $1.1763 Hourly resistance July 31 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.1723 Low July 31 

*SUP 4: $1.1704 Hourly support July 28

*COMMENTARY: Gains to start the new week see immediate focus now on the $1.1870

resistance with the Bollinger top ($1.1820) and O/B daily studies seen as

concerns for bulls. The pair looks like closing above the 200-WMA ($1.1788)

which adds support to the bullish case with bulls now looking for a weekly close

above this level. Bears now need a close below $1.1763 to ease immediate bullish

pressure and below $1.1704 to shift focus back to $1.1611-48.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Above Y110.85 To Gain Breathing Room

*RES 4: Y112.17 200-DMA 

*RES 3: Y111.70 Hourly support July 26 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y111.39 Hourly resistance July 27 

*RES 1: Y110.85 Hourly resistance July 28

*PRICE: Y110.25 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.12 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: Y109.70 55-WMA 

*SUP 3: Y109.25 Low June 15 

*SUP 4: Y108.69 Monthly Low June 14

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on Y110.34 has taken its toll with the pair remaining

heavy and bears now focused on Y108.69-109.70 where the 55-WMA and monthly lows

are situated. Layers of resistance are building with bulls needing a close above

Y110.85 to gain breathing room and hint at a bounce back to layers of resistance

Y111.39-112.87 where DMAs are located. O/S daily studies and the Bollinger base

remain key concerns for bears with potential to limit follow through.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Initial Focus On $1280.8

*RES 4: $1337.4 - Monthly High Nov 9 

*RES 3: $1295.9 - 2017 High June 6 

*RES 2: $1280.8 - High June 14 

*RES 1: $1273.7 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: $1270.3 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1265.7 - Low July 31 

*SUP 2: $1262.2 - Hourly support July 28 

*SUP 3: $1257.0 - Low July 28 

*SUP 4: $1252.7 - Hourly resistance July 25 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on the dip Wednesday with gold finding

support ahead of $1242.4 and resulting in a close above the $1258.8 resistance

that shifted initial focus to $1280.8 and overall focus to tests of 2017 highs.

The Bollinger top & O/B studies remain key concerns. Bears now look for a close

below $1262.2 to gain breathing room and below $1252.7 to shift focus to the

$1242.4 support.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]