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(Z1) Edges Through Support

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AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS

(Z1) Off Lows, But Remains Weak

15 August 2017
By Kyle Shortland
     
Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc
AUSSIE TECHS: Pressure Remains On Key Support
*RES 4: $0.7949 - High Aug 7
*RES 3: $0.7929 - 21-DMA
*RES 2: $0.7919 - High Aug 14
*RES 1: $0.7885 - Hourly support Aug 14 now resistance
*PRICE: $0.7856 @ 2100GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7885 - Hourly support Aug 14
*SUP 2: $0.7868 - Hourly resistance Aug 11 now support
*SUP 3: $0.7838 - High July 17 now support
*SUP 4: $0.7781 - Low July 17
*COMMENTARY: The key $0.7838 support confirmed significance last week having
remained unbroken under pressure. Overall a close below $0.7838 is needed to
shift focus to $0.7749-0.7781. Bulls continue to look for a close above $0.7949
to hint at a move back to $0.8044-65 with above $0.7998 needed to confirm. The
Bollinger base ($0.7832) remains the key concern for bears with potential to
limit follow through.
KIWI TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $0.7250
*RES 4: $0.7391 - Low July 21 now resistance 
*RES 3: $0.7377 - Hourly resistance Aug 7 
*RES 2: $0.7342 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 
*RES 1: $0.7302 - Hourly resistance Aug 14
*PRICE: $0.7288 @ 2100GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7275 - Hourly support Aug 11
*SUP 2: $0.7250 - Low July 17
*SUP 3: $0.7203 - Monthly Low July 11
*SUP 4: $0.7170 - Low June 7
*COMMENTARY: The break and close below the daily bull channel base and 21-DMA
added weight to the bearish case with bears needing a close below $0.7250 to
shift focus to $0.7115-0.7203 where 100 & 200-DMAs are situated. The Bollinger
base ($0.7253) and studies approaching O/S are key concerns for bears. In saying
that, bulls need a close above the 21-DMA ($0.7402) to ease bearish pressure and
shift focus back to $0.7458-0.7577.
AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above NZ$1.0882
*RES 4: NZ$1.0935 - Monthly High May 1
*RES 3: NZ$1.0882 - Low May 1 now resistance
*RES 2: NZ$1.0861 - High Aug 10
*RES 1: NZ$1.0821 - High Aug 14
*PRICE: NZ$1.0776 @ 2100GMT
*SUP 1: NZ$1.0734 - Hourly resistance Aug 10 now support
*SUP 2: NZ$1.0713 - 21-DMA
*SUP 3: NZ$1.0691 - Low Aug 10
*SUP 4: NZ$1.0659 - 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The rally from ahead of the 21-DMA and bull channel base is
struggling with daily studies looking to correct from O/B weighing. NZ$1.0691
support is key with bears needing a close below to confirm breaks of key
supports and shift focus to NZ$1.0566-1.0659. Resistance layers are starting to
accumulate with bulls needing a close above NZ$1.0821 to gain breathing room and
above NZ$1.0882 to reconfirm a bullish bias targeting NZ$1.0935-1.1062.
AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Y87.24-88.03 Resistance Region Key
*RES 4: Y87.87 - 21-DMA 
*RES 3: Y87.24 - Hourly support Aug 9a now resistance 
*RES 2: Y87.10 - High Aug 10 
*RES 1: Y86.78 - Hourly resistance Aug 10a
*PRICE: Y86.13 @ 2100GMT
*SUP 1: Y86.03 - Hourly support Aug 11
*SUP 2: Y85.89 - 55-DMA
*SUP 3: Y85.42 - Low July 5
*SUP 4: Y85.04 - 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA (Y87.87) capped last week and set the scene for losses.
The dip below the 55-DMA lacked follow through Friday which is less than ideal
for bears who are focused on 100 & 200-DMAs. Layers of resistance remain with
bulls now needing a close above Y87.24 to shift focus to Y87.87-88.03 where the
21-DMA is noted. Bears look for a close below Y86.03 today to retain focus on
100 & 200-DMAs.
EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Focused On A$1.5033-1.5224 
*RES 4: A$1.5109 - High June 6
*RES 3: A$1.5075 - High July 6
*RES 2: A$1.5059 - Bollinger band top
*RES 1: A$1.5033 - High July 11
*PRICE: A$1.5005 @ 2100GMT
*SUP 1: A$1.4928 - Low Aug 14 
*SUP 2: A$1.4899 - Daily Bull channel base 
*SUP 3: A$1.4891 - Hourly support Aug 10 
*SUP 4: A$1.4818 - Hourly support Aug 2
*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the bear channel top (A$1.4929) took its toll with the
close above providing bullish confidence a boost. The close above A$1.4965 added
support to the bullish case with bulls now focused on A$ A$1.5033-1.5224 where
monthly highs and the bull channel top are located. Initial support is noted at
A$1.4928 today with bears needing a close below to ease immediate bullish
pressure and below A$1.4891 shift focus back to A$1.4781-1.4846.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 93.888 Resistance Key This Week
*RES 4: 94.285 - High July 26 
*RES 3: 94.103 - High July 27 
*RES 2: 93.888 - High Aug 9 
*RES 1: 93.507 - High Aug 11
*PRICE: 93.401 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 93.248 - Hourly support Aug 14
*SUP 2: 92.934 - Low Aug 8
*SUP 3: 92.679 - Low Aug 3
*SUP 4: 92.548 - 2017 Low Aug 2
*COMMENTARY: Despite recovering from recent 2017 lows the move stalled ahead of
the 21-DMA (93.672) with bulls needing a close above 93.888 to confirm an easing
of bearish pressure and above 94.476 to target 95.167-508 where the 55-DMA is
located. While 93.888 caps bears dominate and retain immediate bearish focus on
2017 lows and the 91.919-92.548 region overall where the 200-WMA, 2016 & 2017
lows are situated.
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1861 Resistance Key
*RES 4: $1.1990 Daily Bull channel top 
*RES 3: $1.1909 2017 High Aug 2 
*RES 2: $1.1861 Hourly support Aug 3 now resistance 
*RES 1: $1.1810 Hourly support Aug 14 now resistance
*PRICE: $1.1788 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1770 Low Aug 14 
*SUP 2: $1.1747 Low Aug 11 
*SUP 3: $1.1721 21-DMA 
*SUP 4: $1.1690 Low Aug 9
*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in support emerging on dips back towards the
21-DMA last week and look for a close above $1.1861 to confirm focus on
$1.1909-90 where 2017 highs and the bull channel top are noted. Support layers
are starting to accumulate with bears needing a close below $1.1747 to retain
pressure on the 21-DMA. Bears need a close below $1.1690 to add weight to their
case for a move that initially targets $1.1549-1.1648.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Above Y110.25 To Shift Focus Higher
*RES 4: Y110.82 High Aug 8 
*RES 3: Y110.59 Hourly resistance Aug 8 
*RES 2: Y110.25 Low Aug 8 now resistance 
*RES 1: Y110.09 Daily Bear channel top
*PRICE: Y109.68 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: Y109.27 Hourly resistance Aug 14 now support 
*SUP 2: Y108.69 Monthly Low June 14 
*SUP 3: Y108.10 2017 Low Apr 17 
*SUP 4: Y106.95 High Nov 10 now support
*COMMENTARY: The Y110.25 resistance confirmed significance Thursday with the
pair remaining capped ahead of this level resulting in fresh 2mth lows and bears
focused on tests of Y108.10-69 where 2017 lows are noted. The Bollinger base
(Y108.99) is the key concern for bears. Layers of resistance are building and
weighing with bulls needing a close above Y110.25 to shift focus back to
Y110.82-111.34 where key DMAs are noted. Bears need a close below Y109.27 to end
correction talk.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1270.0
*RES 4: $1295.9 - 2017 High June 6 
*RES 3: $1295.5 - Daily Bull channel top 
*RES 2: $1290.3 - Bollinger band top 
*RES 1: $1285.9 - Hourly resistance Aug 14
*PRICE: $1282.0 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $1277.7 - Hourly support Aug 10a 
*SUP 2: $1270.0 - Hourly support Aug 9 
*SUP 3: $1263.4 - Hourly support Aug 9a 
*SUP 4: $1261.3 - 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Support emerging ahead of the 21-DMA Tuesday provided the base for
a move that has taken out $1280.8 with immediate focus now on 2017 highs. Layers
of support remain with bears needing a close below $1270.0 to confirm an easing
of bullish pressure and to shift focus back to $1253.9-1261.3 where key DMAs and
the daily bull channel base are situated. The Bollinger top currently limits
follow through.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]