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Free AccessMNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis
9 October 2017
By Kyle Shortland
Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc
AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.7798
*RES 4: $0.7888 - High Sept 27
*RES 3: $0.7840 - Hourly resistance Oct 5
*RES 2: $0.7798 - Hourly resistance Oct 6a
*RES 1: $0.7780 - Hourly resistance Oct 6
*PRICE: $0.7772 @ 2000GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7712 - High June 30 now support
*SUP 2: $0.7667 - 200-DMA
*SUP 3: $0.7635 - Low July 13
*SUP 4: $0.7567 - Monthly Low July 6
*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 21-WMA ($0.7793) & 100-DMA ($0.7785) took its toll
with a marginal close below Friday although follow through is a little lacking.
Daily studies looking to correct from O/S and the Bollinger base ($0.7737) are
key concerns for bears. Layers of resistance remain with bulls needing a close
above $0.7798 to gain breathing room and hint at a correction back to
$0.7888-0.7928 with above the 55-DMA ($0.7928) to target $0.8036-0.8125.
KIWI TECHS: $0.7123-55 Resistance Region Key
*RES 4: $0.7155 - 200-DMA
*RES 3: $0.7146 - Low Oct 4 now resistance
*RES 2: $0.7123 - Hourly resistance Oct 5
*RES 1: $0.7095 - Hourly resistance Oct 6
*PRICE: $0.7058 @ 2000GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7050 - Hourly support Oct 9
*SUP 2: $0.7038 - Daily Bear channel base A
*SUP 3: $0.7035 - Low May 30
*SUP 4: $0.6985 - Low May 23
*COMMENTARY: A lack of topside follow through saw pressure maintained on the
200-DMA last week resulting a break lower and the pair looking heavy. Overall
focus has shifted to 2017 lows with bears initially focused on the
$0.6950-0.7038 region where channel bases are noted. Bulls now need a close
above $0.7123 to gain breathing room and above the 200-MDA to hint at a
correction back to $0.7226-79 where 21, 55 & 100-DMAs are noted.
AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Close Above NZ$1.1025 Targets 2017 High
*RES 4: NZ$1.1142 - 2017High Sept 1
*RES 3: NZ$1.1107 - High Sept 12
*RES 2: NZ$1.1057 - Hourly support Sept 15a now resistance
*RES 1: NZ$1.1025 - Hourly support Sept 15 now resistance
*PRICE: NZ$1.1011 @ 2000GMT
*SUP 1: NZ$1.0994 - High Sept 18 now support
*SUP 2: NZ$1.0944 - 21-DMA
*SUP 3: NZ$1.0925 - Hourly support Oct 3
*SUP 4: NZ$1.0900 - Hourly resistance Oct 3 now support
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from Sept lows has resulted in a gapping move higher
to start the new week with bulls needing a close above NZ$1.1025 to shift focus
to NZ$1.1107-42 where 2017 highs are located. Daily studies have room to move
before O/B becomes an issue. Support layers have been left in the wake with
bears now needing a close below NZ$1.0994 to gain breathing room and below the
55-DMA (NZ$1.0890) to shift focus back to NZ$1.0798-1.0821.
AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Flirting With Bull Channel Base
*RES 4: Y88.74 - High Oct 5
*RES 3: Y88.38 - Hourly resistance Oct 5a
*RES 2: Y88.03 - Hourly resistance Oct 5
*RES 1: Y87.63 - Hourly resistance Oct 6
*PRICE: Y87.52 @ 2000GMT
*SUP 1: Y87.38 - Low Oct 6
*SUP 2: Y87.28 - Bollinger band base
*SUP 3: Y86.54 - Low Sept 6
*SUP 4: Y86.48 - 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The close below the 55-DMA (Y87.70) Friday leaves the pair looking
heavy and flirting with the daily bull channel base (Y87.60). Bears look for a
close below Friday's low to confirm a break of the channel base and initially
focus on Y86.48-54 with overall focus on Y85.45-78 where the 200-DMA is found.
O/S studies are the key concern for bears. Bulls now need a close above Y88.03
to gain breathing room and above Y89.05 to shift focus back to Y89.73-90.31.
EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: A$1.4995 Support Now Key
*RES 4: A$1.5226 - 2017 High June 1
*RES 3: A$1.5175 - High Aug 29
*RES 2: A$1.5128 - High Oct 6
*RES 1: A$1.5119 - Bollinger band top
*PRICE: A$1.5095 @ 2000GMT
*SUP 1: A$1.4995 - Hourly support Oct 5
*SUP 2: A$1.4940 - Low Oct 5
*SUP 3: A$1.4923 - 55-DMA
*SUP 4: A$1.4896 - 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the break of A$1.5109 Friday with focus now
on the A$1.5172-1.5226 region where 2017 highs are located. The Bollinger band
top (A$1.5119) remains the key concern for bulls with potential to limit follow
through. The A$1.4995 support is key this week. Bears need a close below
A$1.4995 to ease pressure on resistance layers and below the 100-DMA to shift
focus back to A$1.4790.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Capped Ahead Of 100-DMA
*RES 4: 94.544 - 100-DMA
*RES 3: 94.476 - Low July 18 now resistance
*RES 2: 94.267 - High Oct 6
*RES 1: 93.942 - Hourly support Oct 6 now resistance
*PRICE: 93.800 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 93.702 - Hourly support Oct 5
*SUP 2: 93.579 - High Oct 4 now support
*SUP 3: 93.413 - Hourly support Oct 4
*SUP 4: 93.259 - Low Oct 4
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through and rejection ahead of the
100-DMA is a concern for bulls given O/B daily studies and increases the risk of
a correction back to 92.659-949 where 21 & 55-DMAs are located. Bears look for a
close below 93.579 to add weight to their case. Below the 21-DMA (92.659) is
needed to shift overall focus back to 2017 lows. Bulls now need a close above
the 100-DMA to initially target 95.167-464.
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1862 Resistance Key This Week
*RES 4: $1.1846 21-DMA
*RES 3: $1.1833 55-DMA
*RES 2: $1.1788 High Oct 4
*RES 1: $1.1746 Hourly support Oct 4 now resistance
*PRICE: $1.1717 @ 1930GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1661 Low Aug 17
*SUP 2: $1.1651 Daily Bear channel base
*SUP 3: $1.1611 Low July 26
*SUP 4: $1.1599 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Follow through was lacking on fresh lows for the week Friday with
the pair finding support and bouncing ahead of the daily bear channel base and
layers of support $1.1583-1.1661. Below $1.1583 is needed to see bears shift
focus to $1.1477. Bulls now need a close above $1.1746 to gain breathing room
and above $1.1788 to hint at a correction back to $1.1833-62 where 21 & 55-DMAs
are noted.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Looking A Little Heavy
*RES 4: Y113.70 Low July 11 now resistance
*RES 3: Y113.44 High Oct 6
*RES 2: Y113.18 Hourly support Oct 6 now resistance
*RES 1: Y112.89 Hourly resistance Oct 6
*PRICE: Y112.71 @ 1930GMT
*SUP 1: Y112.33 Low Oct 4
*SUP 2: Y112.22 Low Sept 29
*SUP 3: Y11.89 200-DMA
*SUP 4: Y11.85 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through continued Friday with the break
above Y113.26 capped ahead of Y113.70. Bulls need a close above 113.70 to
confirm focus on July highs (Y114.49). There is an increased risk of a dip back
towards the Y111.85-112.33 region with below the 21-DMA now needed to add weight
to the case for a test of Y110.62-111.09 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. Below
the 55-DMA is needed hint at a move to 2017 lows with below Y109.52 confirming.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Ned Close Above $1282.3
*RES 4: $1296.4 - High Sept 27
*RES 3: $1292.0 - 55-DMA
*RES 2: $1290.3 - High Sept 29
*RES 1: $1282.3 - High Oct 4
*PRICE: $1275.3 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $1270.7 - Hourly support Oct 6
*SUP 2: $1266.3 - Hourly resistance Oct 6 now support
*SUP 3: $1260.5 - Low Oct 6
*SUP 4: $1253.9- Bollinger band base
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on fresh 2mth lows Friday was less than
ideal given daily studies looking to correct from O/S adding support to the case
for a correction. Bulls continue to look for a close above $1282.3 to gain
breathing room and above the 21-DMA ($1299.7) to shift initial focus back to
$1313.6-1320.0. While $1282.3 caps bears remain focused on $1240.9-1252.4 where
the bull channel base and 200-DMA are situated.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.