MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

10 October 2017

By Kyle Shortland

DOLLAR: Please click on this link to access MNI's daily FX Technical Analysis

Pdf http://tinyurl.com/n3d8mmt

AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.7798

*RES 4: $0.7888 - High Sept 27

*RES 3: $0.7840 - Hourly resistance Oct 5

*RES 2: $0.7798 - Hourly resistance Oct 6a

*RES 1: $0.7782 - Hourly resistance Oct 9

*PRICE: $0.7759 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7733 - Low Oct 6 

*SUP 2: $0.7712 - High June 30 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7667 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: $0.7635 - Low July 13

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 21-WMA ($0.7792) & 100-DMA ($0.7785) took its toll

with a marginal close below Friday although follow through is a little lacking.

Daily studies looking to correct from O/S and the Bollinger base ($0.7734) are

key concerns for bears. Layers of resistance remain with bulls needing a close

above $0.7798 to gain breathing room and hint at a correction back to

$0.7888-0.7928 with above the 55-DMA ($0.7928) to target $0.8036-0.8125.

KIWI TECHS: $0.7123-55 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: $0.7155 - 200-DMA 

*RES 3: $0.7146 - Low Oct 4 now resistance 

*RES 2: $0.7123 - Hourly resistance Oct 5 

*RES 1: $0.7095 - Hourly resistance Oct 6

*PRICE: $0.7068 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7050 - Hourly support Oct 9

*SUP 2: $0.7035 - Low May 30, Daily Bear channel base A

*SUP 3: $0.6985 - Low May 23

*SUP 4: $0.6950 - High May 18 now support

*COMMENTARY: A lack of topside follow through saw pressure on the 200-DMA last

week resulting a break lower and the pair looking heavy. Overall focus has

shifted to 2017 lows with bears initially focused on $0.6950-0.7035. Bulls need

a close above $0.7123 to gain breathing room and above the 200-DMA to hint at a

correction back to $0.7226-80 where 21, 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. O/S studies and

the Bollinger base ($0.7075) are key concerns for bears.

AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Capped Ahead of Key Resistance

*RES 4: NZ$1.1142 - 2017High Sept 1

*RES 3: NZ$1.1107 - High Sept 12

*RES 2: NZ$1.1057 - Hourly support Sept 15a now resistance

*RES 1: NZ$1.1025 - Hourly support Sept 15 now resistance

*PRICE: NZ$1.0971 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0944 - Low Oct 9

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0942 - 21-DMA

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0925 - Hourly support Oct 3

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0900 - Hourly resistance Oct 3 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from Sept lows resulted in a gapping move higher

Monday only to remain capped ahead of NZ$1.1025. Bulls need a close above

NZ$1.1025 to shift focus to NZ$1.1107-42 where 2017 highs are located. Support

layers have been left in the wake with bears now needing a close below the

21-DMA to gain breathing room and below the 55-DMA (NZ$1.0889) to shift focus

back to NZ$1.0798-1.0821.

AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Looking to Gain Traction Below Bull Channel Base

*RES 4: Y88.74 - High Oct 5 

*RES 3: Y88.38 - Hourly resistance Oct 5a 

*RES 2: Y88.03 - Hourly resistance Oct 5 

*RES 1: Y87.63 - Hourly resistance Oct 6

*PRICE: Y87.39 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: Y87.26 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 2: Y86.54 - Low Sept 6

*SUP 3: Y86.48 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: Y85.78 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The close below the 55-DMA (Y87.70) Friday left the pair looking

heavy and flirting with the daily bull channel base (Y87.66). Bears look for a

close below Friday's low to confirm a break of the channel base and initially

focus on Y86.48-54 with overall focus on Y85.45-78 where the 200-DMA is found.

O/S studies are the key concern for bears. Bulls need a close above Y88.03 to

gain breathing room and above Y89.05 to shift focus back to Y89.73-90.31.

EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Focused On A$1.5175-1.5226 

*RES 4: A$1.5415 - Daily Bull channel top

*RES 3: A$1.5298 - High June 20 2016

*RES 2: A$1.5226 - 2017 High June 1

*RES 1: A$1.5175 - High Aug 29

*PRICE: A$1.5144 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5110 - Hourly support Oct 9 

*SUP 2: A$1.5079 - Hourly support Oct 9a 

*SUP 3: A$1.4995 - Hourly support Oct 5 

*SUP 4: A$1.4940 - Low Oct 5

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the break of A$1.5109 Friday with focus now

on the A$1.5175-1.5226 region where 2017 highs are located. The Bollinger band

top (A$1.5130) remains the key concern for bulls with potential to limit follow

through. Layers of support are accumulating with bears now needing a close below

A$1.5079 to ease immediate bullish pressure and below A$1.4995 to pressure 55

(A$1.4924) & 100 (A$1.4897) DMAs.

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Capped Ahead Of 100-DMA

*RES 4: 94.476 - Low July 18 now resistance 

*RES 3: 94.267 - High Oct 6 

*RES 2: 93.942 - Hourly support Oct 6 now resistance 

*RES 1: 93.844 - High Oct 9

*PRICE: 93.748 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 93.579 - High Oct 4 now support

*SUP 2: 93.413 - Hourly support Oct 4

*SUP 3: 93.259 - Low Oct 4

*SUP 4: 93.083 - Hourly support Sept 29

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through and rejection ahead of the

100-DMA is a concern for bulls given O/B daily studies and increases the risk of

a correction back to 92.724-943 where 21 & 55-DMAs are located. Bears look for a

close below 93.579 to add weight to their case. Below 92.724 is now needed to

shift overall focus back to 2017 lows. Bulls now need a close above the 100-DMA

to reconfirm a bullish bias and initially target 95.167-464.

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1862 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $1.1847 21-DMA 

*RES 3: $1.1834 55-DMA 

*RES 2: $1.1788 High Oct 4 

*RES 1: $1.1756 High Oct 9

*PRICE: $1.1751 @ 1930GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1716 Hourly resistance Oct 6 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.1661 Low Aug 17 

*SUP 3: $1.1643 Daily Bear channel base 

*SUP 4: $1.1611 Low July 26

*COMMENTARY: Follow through was lacking on fresh lows for the week Friday with

the pair finding support and bouncing ahead of the daily bear channel base and

layers of support $1.1583-1.1661. Below $1.1583 is needed to see bears shift

focus to $1.1477. Bulls now need a close above $1.1788 to hint at a correction

back to $1.1835-62 where 21 & 55-DMAs are noted. Daily studies correcting from

O/S are the key concern for bears.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Finding Support On Dips

*RES 4: Y113.70 Low July 11 now resistance

*RES 3: Y113.44 High Oct 6 

*RES 2: Y113.18 Hourly support Oct 6 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y112.89 Hourly resistance Oct 6

*PRICE: Y112.65 @ 1930GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.33 Low Oct 4 & Hourly support Oct 9 

*SUP 2: Y112.22 Low Sept 29 

*SUP 3: Y111.89 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y111.85 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through continued Friday with the break

of Y113.26 capped ahead of Y113.70. Bulls need a close above 113.70 to confirm

focus on July highs (Y114.49). The dip to Y112.33 Monday again saw support

emerge. Bears look for a close below Y112.22 to pressure 21 & 200-DMAs and below

Y111.48 to shift focus to 55 (Y110.62) & 100 (Y111.09) DMAs. Below the 55-DMA

(Y110.62) is needed hint at a move to 2017 lows with below Y109.52 confirming.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: $1296.7 - 21-DMA 

*RES 3: $1296.4 - High Sept 27 

*RES 2: $1292.8 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $1290.3 - High Sept 29

*PRICE: $1284.4 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1277.6 - Hourly resistance Oct 6 now support 

*SUP 2: $1270.7 - Hourly support Oct 6 

*SUP 3: $1266.3 - Hourly resistance Oct 6 now support 

*SUP 4: $1260.5 - Low Oct 6

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on 2mth lows Friday was less than ideal

given daily studies looking to correct from O/S adding support to the case for a

correction. Bulls look for a close above the 21-DMA ($1296.7) to shift initial

focus back to $1313.6-1320.0. Initial support is noted at $1277.6 with bears

needing a close below to retain focus on $1241.4-1253.1 where the bull channel

base and 200-DMA are situated.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]