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Free AccessMNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis
10 October 2017
By Kyle Shortland
DOLLAR: Please click on this link to access MNI's daily FX Technical Analysis
Pdf http://tinyurl.com/n3d8mmt
AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.7798
*RES 4: $0.7888 - High Sept 27
*RES 3: $0.7840 - Hourly resistance Oct 5
*RES 2: $0.7798 - Hourly resistance Oct 6a
*RES 1: $0.7782 - Hourly resistance Oct 9
*PRICE: $0.7759 @ 2000GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7733 - Low Oct 6
*SUP 2: $0.7712 - High June 30 now support
*SUP 3: $0.7667 - 200-DMA
*SUP 4: $0.7635 - Low July 13
*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 21-WMA ($0.7792) & 100-DMA ($0.7785) took its toll
with a marginal close below Friday although follow through is a little lacking.
Daily studies looking to correct from O/S and the Bollinger base ($0.7734) are
key concerns for bears. Layers of resistance remain with bulls needing a close
above $0.7798 to gain breathing room and hint at a correction back to
$0.7888-0.7928 with above the 55-DMA ($0.7928) to target $0.8036-0.8125.
KIWI TECHS: $0.7123-55 Resistance Region Key
*RES 4: $0.7155 - 200-DMA
*RES 3: $0.7146 - Low Oct 4 now resistance
*RES 2: $0.7123 - Hourly resistance Oct 5
*RES 1: $0.7095 - Hourly resistance Oct 6
*PRICE: $0.7068 @ 2000GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7050 - Hourly support Oct 9
*SUP 2: $0.7035 - Low May 30, Daily Bear channel base A
*SUP 3: $0.6985 - Low May 23
*SUP 4: $0.6950 - High May 18 now support
*COMMENTARY: A lack of topside follow through saw pressure on the 200-DMA last
week resulting a break lower and the pair looking heavy. Overall focus has
shifted to 2017 lows with bears initially focused on $0.6950-0.7035. Bulls need
a close above $0.7123 to gain breathing room and above the 200-DMA to hint at a
correction back to $0.7226-80 where 21, 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. O/S studies and
the Bollinger base ($0.7075) are key concerns for bears.
AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Capped Ahead of Key Resistance
*RES 4: NZ$1.1142 - 2017High Sept 1
*RES 3: NZ$1.1107 - High Sept 12
*RES 2: NZ$1.1057 - Hourly support Sept 15a now resistance
*RES 1: NZ$1.1025 - Hourly support Sept 15 now resistance
*PRICE: NZ$1.0971 @ 2000GMT
*SUP 1: NZ$1.0944 - Low Oct 9
*SUP 2: NZ$1.0942 - 21-DMA
*SUP 3: NZ$1.0925 - Hourly support Oct 3
*SUP 4: NZ$1.0900 - Hourly resistance Oct 3 now support
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from Sept lows resulted in a gapping move higher
Monday only to remain capped ahead of NZ$1.1025. Bulls need a close above
NZ$1.1025 to shift focus to NZ$1.1107-42 where 2017 highs are located. Support
layers have been left in the wake with bears now needing a close below the
21-DMA to gain breathing room and below the 55-DMA (NZ$1.0889) to shift focus
back to NZ$1.0798-1.0821.
AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Looking to Gain Traction Below Bull Channel Base
*RES 4: Y88.74 - High Oct 5
*RES 3: Y88.38 - Hourly resistance Oct 5a
*RES 2: Y88.03 - Hourly resistance Oct 5
*RES 1: Y87.63 - Hourly resistance Oct 6
*PRICE: Y87.39 @ 2000GMT
*SUP 1: Y87.26 - Bollinger band base
*SUP 2: Y86.54 - Low Sept 6
*SUP 3: Y86.48 - 100-DMA
*SUP 4: Y85.78 - 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The close below the 55-DMA (Y87.70) Friday left the pair looking
heavy and flirting with the daily bull channel base (Y87.66). Bears look for a
close below Friday's low to confirm a break of the channel base and initially
focus on Y86.48-54 with overall focus on Y85.45-78 where the 200-DMA is found.
O/S studies are the key concern for bears. Bulls need a close above Y88.03 to
gain breathing room and above Y89.05 to shift focus back to Y89.73-90.31.
EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Focused On A$1.5175-1.5226
*RES 4: A$1.5415 - Daily Bull channel top
*RES 3: A$1.5298 - High June 20 2016
*RES 2: A$1.5226 - 2017 High June 1
*RES 1: A$1.5175 - High Aug 29
*PRICE: A$1.5144 @ 2000GMT
*SUP 1: A$1.5110 - Hourly support Oct 9
*SUP 2: A$1.5079 - Hourly support Oct 9a
*SUP 3: A$1.4995 - Hourly support Oct 5
*SUP 4: A$1.4940 - Low Oct 5
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the break of A$1.5109 Friday with focus now
on the A$1.5175-1.5226 region where 2017 highs are located. The Bollinger band
top (A$1.5130) remains the key concern for bulls with potential to limit follow
through. Layers of support are accumulating with bears now needing a close below
A$1.5079 to ease immediate bullish pressure and below A$1.4995 to pressure 55
(A$1.4924) & 100 (A$1.4897) DMAs.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Capped Ahead Of 100-DMA
*RES 4: 94.476 - Low July 18 now resistance
*RES 3: 94.267 - High Oct 6
*RES 2: 93.942 - Hourly support Oct 6 now resistance
*RES 1: 93.844 - High Oct 9
*PRICE: 93.748 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 93.579 - High Oct 4 now support
*SUP 2: 93.413 - Hourly support Oct 4
*SUP 3: 93.259 - Low Oct 4
*SUP 4: 93.083 - Hourly support Sept 29
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through and rejection ahead of the
100-DMA is a concern for bulls given O/B daily studies and increases the risk of
a correction back to 92.724-943 where 21 & 55-DMAs are located. Bears look for a
close below 93.579 to add weight to their case. Below 92.724 is now needed to
shift overall focus back to 2017 lows. Bulls now need a close above the 100-DMA
to reconfirm a bullish bias and initially target 95.167-464.
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1862 Resistance Key This Week
*RES 4: $1.1847 21-DMA
*RES 3: $1.1834 55-DMA
*RES 2: $1.1788 High Oct 4
*RES 1: $1.1756 High Oct 9
*PRICE: $1.1751 @ 1930GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1716 Hourly resistance Oct 6 now support
*SUP 2: $1.1661 Low Aug 17
*SUP 3: $1.1643 Daily Bear channel base
*SUP 4: $1.1611 Low July 26
*COMMENTARY: Follow through was lacking on fresh lows for the week Friday with
the pair finding support and bouncing ahead of the daily bear channel base and
layers of support $1.1583-1.1661. Below $1.1583 is needed to see bears shift
focus to $1.1477. Bulls now need a close above $1.1788 to hint at a correction
back to $1.1835-62 where 21 & 55-DMAs are noted. Daily studies correcting from
O/S are the key concern for bears.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Finding Support On Dips
*RES 4: Y113.70 Low July 11 now resistance
*RES 3: Y113.44 High Oct 6
*RES 2: Y113.18 Hourly support Oct 6 now resistance
*RES 1: Y112.89 Hourly resistance Oct 6
*PRICE: Y112.65 @ 1930GMT
*SUP 1: Y112.33 Low Oct 4 & Hourly support Oct 9
*SUP 2: Y112.22 Low Sept 29
*SUP 3: Y111.89 200-DMA
*SUP 4: Y111.85 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through continued Friday with the break
of Y113.26 capped ahead of Y113.70. Bulls need a close above 113.70 to confirm
focus on July highs (Y114.49). The dip to Y112.33 Monday again saw support
emerge. Bears look for a close below Y112.22 to pressure 21 & 200-DMAs and below
Y111.48 to shift focus to 55 (Y110.62) & 100 (Y111.09) DMAs. Below the 55-DMA
(Y110.62) is needed hint at a move to 2017 lows with below Y109.52 confirming.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA
*RES 4: $1296.7 - 21-DMA
*RES 3: $1296.4 - High Sept 27
*RES 2: $1292.8 - 55-DMA
*RES 1: $1290.3 - High Sept 29
*PRICE: $1284.4 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $1277.6 - Hourly resistance Oct 6 now support
*SUP 2: $1270.7 - Hourly support Oct 6
*SUP 3: $1266.3 - Hourly resistance Oct 6 now support
*SUP 4: $1260.5 - Low Oct 6
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on 2mth lows Friday was less than ideal
given daily studies looking to correct from O/S adding support to the case for a
correction. Bulls look for a close above the 21-DMA ($1296.7) to shift initial
focus back to $1313.6-1320.0. Initial support is noted at $1277.6 with bears
needing a close below to retain focus on $1241.4-1253.1 where the bull channel
base and 200-DMA are situated.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.