MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

20 December 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: 200-DMA Capping For Now, $0.7623 Support Key

*RES 4: $0.7768 - Low Oct 24 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7730 - High Nov 2

*RES 2: $0.7692 - 200-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7674 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7662 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7623 - Hourly support Dec 14 

*SUP 2: $0.7596 - Hourly support Dec 13 

*SUP 3: $0.7580 - Hourly breakout level Dec 12 

*SUP 4: $0.7543 - Hourly support Dec 12

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from $0.7500 sees closes above the channel top & the

pair pressuring 55 & 200-DMAs. Layers of resistance remain $0.7674-0.7791 with

bulls needing a close above the 100-DMA ($0.7791) to shift overall focus to 2017

highs. Key supports remain with bears still needing a close below $0.7623 to

ease immediate bullish pressure and below $0.7580 to return initial focus to

$0.7482-00 where the weekly bull channel base is noted.

KIWI TECHS: 55-DMA & $0.7050 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: $0.7200 - High Oct 17 

*RES 3: $0.7117 - Low Oct 18 now resistance 

*RES 2: $0.7103 - 200-DMA 

*RES 1: $0.7050 - Low Oct 9 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.6991 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6979 - Monthly High Nov 9 now support

*SUP 2: $0.6946 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: $0.6923 - Hourly support Dec 12

*SUP 4: $0.6901 - Low Dec 12

*COMMENTARY: The bounce from ahead of last week's low has resulted in closes

above the 55-DMA with immediate focus shifting to the $0.7050 resistance. Bulls

need a close above $0.7050 to target $0.7200-25 although 100 ($0.7091) & 200

($0.7103) DMAs may slow the move. Bears look for a close below the 55-DMA to

ease bullish pressure and below $0.6901 to reconfirm focus on 2017 lows and the

weekly bear channel base ($0.6693).

AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: NZ$1.1045 Resistance Key To Further Topside

*RES 4: NZ$1.1139 - High Nov 14

*RES 3: NZ$1.1045 - Low Dec 5 now resistance

*RES 2: NZ$1.1027 - Hourly resistance Dec 6

*RES 1: NZ$1.0990 - High Dec 11

*PRICE: NZ$1.0959 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0904 - Low Dec 18

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0858 - Low Dec 12

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0827 - 200-DMA

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0798 - Low Aug 16

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 200-DMA and key WMAs NZ$1.0722-63 took its

toll with an aggressive bounce last Thursday that eased bearish pressure. Bulls

need a close above NZ$1.1045 to confirm breaks of 21 (NZ$1.0997) & 55

(NZ$1.1044) DMAs and initially target NZ$1.1139. Bears need a close below

NZ$1.0904 to retain focus on the NZ$1.0722-1.0858 support region. Below the

100-WMA (NZ$1.0722) shifts focus back to NZ$1.0364 June lows.

AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Above 100-DMA Targets 2017 High

*RES 4: Y87.72 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 3: Y87.04 - 100-DMA 

*RES 2: Y86.69 - Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 1: Y86.61 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: Y86.58 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y86.28 - Hourly support Dec 19

*SUP 2: Y85.85 - 200-DMA

*SUP 3: Y85.64 - Low Dec 13

*SUP 4: Y85.52 - Hourly resistance Dec 12 now support

*COMMENTARY: Pressure is firmly on layers of resistance Y86.61-87.04 where the

bear channel top, 55 & 100-DMAs are situated. Bulls look for a close above the

100-DMA to shift focus to Y87.72-89.06. The Bollinger top (Y86.51) remains the

key concern for bulls. Initial support is noted at Y86.28 but bears now look for

a close below the 200-DMA to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and return

focus to Y84.33-65.

EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above A$1.5484 

*RES 4: A$1.5614 - Hourly resistance Dec 12a

*RES 3: A$1.5560 - 21-DMA

*RES 2: A$1.5559 - High Dec 13

*RES 1: A$1.5484 - Hourly resistance Dec 14

*PRICE: A$1.5453 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5411 - Hourly resistance Dec 19 now support 

*SUP 2: A$1.5325 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: A$1.5317 - Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 4: A$1.5195 - Low Nov 13

*COMMENTARY: The 55-DMA and bull channel base reconfirmed significance with

bulls taking comfort in Tuesday's bounce. In saying that, bulls still need a

close above A$1.5484 to ease immediate bearish pressure and above the 21-DMA to

return focus to A$1.5695-1.5774. Bears continue to look for a close below the

channel base to hint at deeper sell-off with below A$1.5079 to target the

200-DMA (A$1.4881).

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 92.496 & 94.219 Levels Key

*RES 4: 94.650 - High Nov 10 

*RES 3: 94.219 - High Dec 12 

*RES 2: 94.107 - High Dec 13 

*RES 1: 93.760 - High Dec 19

*PRICE: 93.459 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 93.346 - 100-DMA

*SUP 2: 93.282 - Low Dec 14

*SUP 3: 93.171 - Low Dec 6

*SUP 4: 93.035 - Low Dec 5

*COMMENTARY: Bulls have so far failed to capitalise on bounces from the 100-DMA

this week with the failure to take out 94.219 seeing pressure back on the

100-DMA. Bears look for a close below the 100-DMA to add weight to their case

with a close below 92.496 to confirm focus on tests of 2017 lows. Bulls continue

to look for a close above 94.219 to reconfirm a bullish bias targeting

95.167-654 where the 200-DMA (94.575) is noted.

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Now Need Close Above $1.1884

*RES 4: $1.1961 High Nov 27

*RES 3: $1.1940 High Dec 1

*RES 2: $1.1884 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 1: $1.1862 High Dec 14

*PRICE: $1.1844 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1805 Hourly support Dec 19 

*SUP 2: $1.1775 Low Dec 19 

*SUP 3: $1.1752 Daily Bull channel base (off Nov Low) 

*SUP 4: $1.1713 Low Nov 21

*COMMENTARY: Support continues to emerge on dips back towards the key $1.1690

level with the bull channel base confirming significance as layers of support

accumulate. Bears now need a close below $1.1805 to gain breathing room and

below $1.1690 to initially target $1.1552 Nov lows. Topside follow through was

lacking Monday with bulls needing a close above $1.1884 to see focus return to

the $1.1940-1.1961 region with above $1.1961 to pressure 2017 highs.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Initial Focus Returns to Y113.75-114.07

*RES 4: Y114.61 LT TL off 2015 High 

*RES 3: Y114.07 High Nov 9 

*RES 2: Y113.74 High Dec 12 

*RES 1: Y113.30 Hourly resistance Dec 13a

*PRICE: Y112.99 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.85 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y112.33 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y111.98 Low Dec 6 

*SUP 4: Y111.60 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Follow through has been lacking on dips with the likely close above

the 55-DMA seeing bulls regain the upper hand and initial focus on

Y113.75-114.07. Bulls look for a close above Y114.72 to target Y115.62 and then

Y118.60 2017 highs. Bears need a close below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure

and return focus to Y110.83-111.98 where monthly lows, 100 & 200-DMAs are noted.

Bears look for a close below Y110.83 to target 2017 lows (Y107.31).

EURO-YEN TECHS: Focus Returns To 2017 High

*RES 4: Y136.40 High Oct 21 2015

*RES 3: Y135.84 Low Oct 21 2015 now resistance

*RES 2: Y134.50 2017 High Oct 25

*RES 1: Y134.22 Bollinger band top

*PRICE: Y133.81 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y133.11 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 2: Y132.54 Hourly support Dec 18 

*SUP 3: Y132.34 Daily Bull channel base (off Aug low) 

*SUP 4: Y132.03 Low Dec 15

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from tests of the daily bull channel base sees the

pair flirting with the Y133.88 resistance level with bulls now focused on

retests of 2017 highs. The Bollinger top is the key concern for bulls with

potential to limit follow through. A close above Y134.50 is now needed to

potentially target Y139.02-141.05. Support layers are accumulating with bears

now needing a close below Y133.11 to ease bullish pressure.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1249.2-1256.5 Support Key Today

*RES 4: $1281.0 - Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 3: $1277.9 - Hourly resistance Dec 1 

*RES 2: $1276.0 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $1269.9 - Low Nov 14 now resistance

*PRICE: $1261.0 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1256.5 - Hourly support Dec 18 

*SUP 2: $1249.2 - Hourly breakout level Dec 13 

*SUP 3: $1240.2 - Low Dec 13 

*SUP 4: $1235.9 - Low Dec 12

*COMMENTARY: Correcting O/S studies provided the impetus for a correction back

towards layers of resistance $1269.9-1289.5 where DMAs and bear channel top are

noted. Layers of support have accumulated with bears needing a close below

$1256.5 to gain breathing room, below $1249.2 to shift immediate focus to

$1235.9 and overall focus to $1204.6-1214.0. Bulls need a close above $1269.9 to

add to confidence.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]