MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

15 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Below $0.7760 To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: $0.8102 - High Sept 20

*RES 3: $0.8036 - High Sept 21

*RES 2: $0.7986 - High Sept 22

*RES 1: $0.7916 - High Jan 12

*PRICE: $0.7901 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7882 - Hourly support Jan 12 

*SUP 2: $0.7846 - Low Jan 12 

*SUP 3: $0.7802 - Low Jan 3 

*SUP 4: $0.7760 - Hourly support Dec 27

*COMMENTARY: Bullish focus shifts to tests of 2017 highs following gains last

week and support emerging ahead of 21 ($0.7791) & 100 ($0.7771) DMAs. Bears now

need a close below $0.7846 to ease immediate bullish pressure and below the

100-DMA to hint at a move back to $0.7500 and below $0.7625 to confirm. Bulls

now focus on tests of the 2017 high with a close above $0.7986 needed to add

support to their case.

KIWI TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $0.7211

*RES 4: $0.7433 - Monthly High Sept 20 

*RES 3: $0.7374 - High Sept 25 

*RES 2: $0.7282 - 200-WMA 

*RES 1: $0.7276 - High Sept 26

*PRICE: $0.7247 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7211 - Hourly support Jan 11

*SUP 2: $0.7173 - Hourly resistance Jan 10 now support

*SUP 3: $0.7143 - Low Jan 5

*SUP 4: $0.7130 - High Jan 2 now support

*COMMENTARY: The close above $0.7243 Thursday ended bearish hopes and shifted

initial focus to $0.7374-0.7433 where Sept highs are located. O/B daily studies

looking to correct remain the key concern for bulls as layers of support again

accumulate. Bears now look for a close below $0.7211 to ease bullish pressure

and below the 200-DMA to hint at a move back to $0.6952-74 where the 55-DMA is

noted.

AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bears Need Close Below NZ$1.0824

*RES 4: NZ$1.1019 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: NZ$1.1014 - 100-DMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.0969 - 21-DMA

*RES 1: NZ$1.0908 - Hourly resistance Jan 11

*PRICE: NZ$1.0869 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0835 - 200-DMA

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0824 - Monthly Low Sept 21

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0779 - 55-WMA

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0730 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The 55-DMA confirmed significance having capped the recovery from

Dec lows and seeing focus back on NZ$1.0724-1.0858 where the 200-DMA and key

WMAs are situated. Correcting O/B studies have added weight to the case for a

decent correction. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 21-DMA to gain

breathing room and above the 55-DMA to regain control and target 2017 highs once

again.

AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Pressure On Key DMAs

*RES 4: Y89.09 - High Oct 23 

*RES 3: Y88.83 - High Jan 9 

*RES 2: Y88.27 - Hourly resistance Jan 9 

*RES 1: Y88.09 - High Jan 11

*PRICE: Y87.85 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y87.23 - 100-DMA

*SUP 2: Y86.57 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: Y86.09 - 200-DMA

*SUP 4: Y85.92 - Low Dec 14

*COMMENTARY: Losses defined last week with immediate focus on Y85.92-87.23 where

key DMAs are situated. Bears now need a close below Y85.92 to shift immediate

focus to Y84.33 and overall focus to 2017 lows (Y81.47). Bulls continue to look

for a close above Y88.27 to return focus to Y89.06-90.30. Correcting daily

studies continue to weigh with a close below the 100-DMA to add weight to the

bearish case.

EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: A$1.5311 Support Now Key This Week

*RES 4: A$1.5559 - High Dec 13

*RES 3: A$1.5526 - High Dec 20

*RES 2: A$1.5467 - Hourly support Dec 21 now resistance

*RES 1: A$1.5446 - High Jan 12

*PRICE: A$1.5426 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5363 - Hourly support Jan 12 

*SUP 2: A$1.5312 - High Jan 11 now support 

*SUP 3: A$1.5233 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: A$1.5189 - Hourly resistance Jan 11 now support

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on fresh 2mth lows and below the 100-DMA

lacked follow through last week and was followed up with a rally Friday that

sees bullish focus shift to A$1.5586 this week. Bulls then need a close above

this level to confirm focus on 2017 highs. The A$1.5311 support is now key.

Bears need a close below to ease renewed bullish pressure and return focus to

A$1.5079-1.5152.

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Focus On 88.125

*RES 4: 91.879 - High Jan 12 

*RES 3: 91.689 - Hourly support Jan 12a now resistance 

*RES 2: 91.523 - Hourly resistance Jan 12 

*RES 1: 91.191 - Hourly support Jan 12 now resistance

*PRICE: 90.974 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 90.325 - High Dec 30 2014 now support

*SUP 2: 89.776 - Low Dec 26 2014

*SUP 3: 88.921 - Low Dec 18 2014

*SUP 4: 88.125 - Monthly Low Dec 16 2014

*COMMENTARY: The index remains heavy with fresh 3+ year lows Friday seeing bears

now focused on the 88.125 Dec 2014 monthly low. O/S daily studies and Bollinger

band base (91.176) are concerns for bears. Layers of resistance accumulating

adds weight to the bearish case with bulls now needing a close above 91.879 to

ease bearish pressure and hint at a correction back to 92.640-93.456 where key

DMAs are clustered.

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Targeting Weekly Bear Channel Top

*RES 4: $1.2694 LT Weekly Bear Channel top

*RES 3: $1.2569 Monthly High Dec 16 2014

*RES 2: $1.2360 Low Dec 10 2014 now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2254 High Dec 25 2014

*PRICE: $1.2200 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2156 Hourly resistance Jan 12 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.2111 Houlry support Jan 12 

*SUP 3: $1.2075 Hourly resistance Jan 12a now support 

*SUP 4: $1.2018 High Jan 10 now support

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA provided the base last week for a rally to fresh 3+yr

highs with bulls now focused on the LT weekly bear channel top off mid 2008

highs. Daily studies have a little room to move before O/B is an issue. Layers

of support are accumulating with bears now needing a close below $1.2075 to ease

bullish pressure and below $1.2018 to shift focus back to $1.1835-1.1962 where

key DMAs are noted.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Close Below Y110.83 Need To Target 2017 Low

*RES 4: Y112.42 Hourly resistance Jan 10 

*RES 3: Y112.28 100-DMA 

*RES 2: Y111.98 Low Dec 6 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y111.70 200-DMA, High Jan 12

*PRICE: Y111.06 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.83 Monthly Low Nov 27 

*SUP 2: Y109.75 Daily Bear channel base 

*SUP 3: Y109.54 Low Sept 15 

*SUP 4: Y107.31 2017 Low Sept 8

*COMMENTARY: Time spent above the 55-DMA was brief with the break below Y112.86

leaving the pair looking heavy and bears focused on Y110.83 Nov lows. Bears need

a close below Y110.83 to shift initial focus to the bear channel base and

overall focus to tests of 2017 lows. Bulls still need a close above Y111.98 to

ease immediate bearish pressure and above the 100-DMA to shift focus back to

Y112.73-113.44 where the 55-DMA and bear channel top are noted.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Focus Back on 2018 High

*RES 4: Y136.62 2018 High Jan 5

*RES 3: Y136.41 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: Y136.32 High Jan 8

*RES 1: Y135.99 Low Jan 5 now resistance

*PRICE: Y135.51 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: Y134.81 Hourly support Jan 12 

*SUP 2: Y134.39 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: Y133.60 Hourly support Jan 11 

*SUP 4: Y133.12 21-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off found support around the 21-WMA and ahead of the

100-DMA (Y132.90) with the recovery seeing bulls regain the upper hand and

initial focus on 2017 highs. While the 100-DMA (Y132.90) supports overall

bullish focus remains on 139.02-141.05 where monthly highs are noted, Bears now

need a close back below Y133.39 to ease bullish pressure and shift focus back to

the 21-WMA and 100-DMA. Below the 100-DMA shifts focus to Y130.59-132.03.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Focused On $1357.5-1374.9

*RES 4: $1374.9 - 2016 High July 6 2016 

*RES 3: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 2: $1357.5 - 2017 High Sept 8 

*RES 1: $1342.6 - Low Sept 8 now resistance

*PRICE: $1338.3 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1321.2 - Hourly support Jan 12 

*SUP 2: $1315.4 - Low Jan 11 

*SUP 3: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4 

*SUP 4: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the week's low resulted in fresh 2018 and 4mth

highs and adds support to the bullish case for a test of 2017 and then 2016

highs. O/B studies and the Bollinger band top ($1346.3) remain key concerns for

bulls. Support layers continue to build with bears now needing a close below

$1321.2 to ease bullish pressure and below $1302.5 to shift focus back to

$1273.6-1292.3 where key DMAs are noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]