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MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

5 February 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc
AUSSIE TECHS: Focus Shifts To $0.7229-0.7802
*RES 4: $0.8118 - High Jan 29
*RES 3: $0.8079 - Hourly resistance Jan 31
*RES 2: $0.8046 - Hourly resistance Feb 1
*RES 1: $0.7976 - 21-DMA
*PRICE: $0.7910 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7882 - Hourly support Jan 12 
*SUP 2: $0.7802 - Low Jan 3 
*SUP 3: $0.7783 - 55-DMA 
*SUP 4: $0.7746 - 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of $0.8135-62 has taken its toll with a sharp
sell-off and bearish close below the 21-DMA ($0.7976) leaving the pair looking
heavy and bears now focused on $0.7729-0.7802 where key DMAs are situated. Daily
studies are well placed for losses. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to
ease immediate bearish pressure and above $0.8046 to shift focus back to
$0.8135-62.
KIWI TECHS: $0.7266 Support Key This Week
*RES 4: $0.7435 - 2018 High Jan 24 
*RES 3: $0.7420 - High Jan 31 
*RES 2: $0.7403 - High Feb 1 
*RES 1: $0.7332 - Low Feb 1 now resistance
*PRICE: $0.7291 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7325 - Low Jan 31
*SUP 2: $0.7273 - 21-DMA
*SUP 3: $0.7266 - Low Jan 22
*SUP 4: $0.7217 - Low Jan 12
*COMMENTARY: Failure to trouble recent 2018 highs last week leaves the pair
looking heavy and flirting with the 21-DMA ($0.7293). The $0.7266 support is key
this week. Bears need a close below to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift
initial focus to $0.7217 and overall focus to $0.7042-0.7141 where key DMAs are
noted. Bulls now need a close above $0.7332 to gain breathing room and retain
focus on 2018 highs.
AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 100-WMA
*RES 4: NZ$1.0997 - 100-DMA
*RES 3: NZ$1.0960 - Hourly resistance Jan 31
*RES 2: NZ$1.0921 - Hourly resistance Feb 1
*RES 1: NZ$1.0881 - Hourly resistance Feb 1
*PRICE: NZ$1.0843 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: NZ$1.0820 - Bollinger band base
*SUP 2: NZ$1.0821 - 55-WMA
*SUP 3: NZ$1.0772 - 200-WMA
*SUP 4: NZ$1.0729 - 100-WMA
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 2mth highs lacked follow through with Wednesday's
sell-off seeing the pair close below key DMAs and return focus to NZ$1.0821-46
where the 200-DMA and 55-WMA are noted. The pair currently flirts with the
200-DMA (NZ$1.0846). Bears need a close below the 100-WMA to end bullish hopes
and shift focus to NZ$1.0442 where the LT rising TL is noted. Bulls need a close
above NZ$1.0960 to ease bearish pressure.
AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bears Focus on 55-WMA While Y87.45 Caps
*RES 4: Y88.50 - High Jan 31 
*RES 3: Y88.06 - 21-DMA 
*RES 2: Y87.45 - Low Jan 30 now resistance 
*RES 1: Y87.31 - 100-DMA
*PRICE: Y87.13 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: Y86.97 - 55-DMA
*SUP 2: Y86.52 - 200-DMA
*SUP 3: Y86.19 - 55-WMA
*SUP 4: Y85.92 - Low Dec 14
*COMMENTARY: The pair remained capped ahead of Y89.09 with follow through above
the 21-DMA lacking. Bears take comfort in pressure now on Y85.92-86.97 where key
DMAS and the 55-WMA are noted. Bears now need a close below the 55-WMA to add
weight to the case for a move initially targeting Y84.33-65. Layers of
resistance are now weighing with bulls needing a close above Y87.45 to ease
immediate bearish pressure.
EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: A$1.5469-1.5586 Support Key This Week
*RES 4: A$1.6250 - 2016 High Feb 11
*RES 3: A$1.5968 - High Feb 12 2016
*RES 2: A$1.5814 - Weekly Bollinger band top
*RES 1: A$1.5774 - 2017 High Dec 1
*PRICE: A$1.5717 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: A$1.5674 - Hourly support Feb 2 
*SUP 2: A$1.5586 - Alternating daily support/resistance 
*SUP 3: A$1.5510 - Hourly support Feb 1 
*SUP 4: A$1.5469 - Alternating hourly support/resistance
*COMMENTARY: Despite flirting with the 100-DMA bears failed to manage the close
below A$1.5256 needed to shift focus to A$1.5087-1.5141 where the 200-DMA is
found. The recovery resulted in closes above key levels and bulls focused on
A$1.5774 once more. Layers of support following the pair higher sees bears
needing a close below A$1.5586 to ease bullish pressure and below the A$1.5469
to shift focus back to A$1.5256-1.5378.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Below 88.438 Targets 86.879-87.627
*RES 4: 90.294 - Hourly resistance Jan 23 
*RES 3: 90.113 - Hourly resistance Jan 24 
*RES 2: 89.637 - High Jan 30 
*RES 1: 89.425 - High Feb 2
*PRICE: 89.195 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 88.925 - Hourly resistance Feb 1 now support
*SUP 2: 88.438 - 2018 Low Jan 25
*SUP 3: 87.627 - Monthly Low Dec 16 2014
*SUP 4: 87.451 - Weekly bear channel base
*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to 2018 lows has failed to produce the close
below needed to add weight to the case for a test of the weekly bear channel
base. Correcting O/S studies remain the key concern for bears. Bulls now need a
close above 89.637 to ease immediate bearish pressure and above the 21-DMA to
shift initial focus to 91.011-751. 89.637 caps bears focus on a close below
88.438.
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Weekly Bear Chanel Top Lurking Above
*RES 4: $1.2569 Monthly High Dec 16 2014
*RES 3: $1.2536 2018 High Jan 25
*RES 2: $1.2522 High Feb 1
*RES 1: $1.2498 Hourly resistance Feb 2
*PRICE: $1.2436 @ 2000GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2407 Low Feb 2 
*SUP 2: $1.2378 Hourly support Jan 30 
*SUP 3: $1.2322 High Jan 17 now support 
*SUP 4: $1.2267 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The $1.2322 support confirmed significance with bulls taking
comfort in the bounce Tuesday. The recovery has remained capped ahead of 2018
highs and remains a little heavy. Bears need a close below $1.2322 to hint at a
correction back to $1.2092-1.2156 with below the 21-DMA to add weight to their
case. Bulls need a close above $1.2536 to add support to the case for a tests of
the LT weekly bear channel top ($1.2670).
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: 21-DMA Now Capping
*RES 4: Y111.75 55-DMA 
*RES 3: Y111.71 200-DMA 
*RES 2: Y111.23 High Jan 22 
*RES 1: Y110.40 21-DMA
*PRICE: Y110.14 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: Y109.90 Hourly resistance Feb 2 now support 
*SUP 2: Y109.23 Hourly support Feb 1 
*SUP 3: Y108.87 Hourly support Jan 31 
*SUP 4: Y108.40 Low Jan 30
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in hesitation ahead of recent 2018 lows with
follow through lacking as support emerged on dips. The 21-DMA capped Friday
which is less than ideal with bulls now needing a close above to confirm focus
on Y111.22-112.66 where key DMAs and the bear channel top are situated.
Correcting O/S studies add to bullish confidence. Bears now look for a close
below Y109.23 to return initial focus to Y108.12-40.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y135.95
*RES 4: Y139.62 Daily Bull channel top
*RES 3: Y139.02 Monthly High Aug 21 2015
*RES 2: Y137.58 High Aug 26 2015
*RES 1: Y137.23 Bollinger band top
*PRICE: Y136.95 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: Y136.64 Hourly support Feb 2 
*SUP 2: Y135.95 Hourly support Feb 1 
*SUP 3: Y135.43 21-DMA 
*SUP 4: Y135.10 Hourly support Jan 31a
*COMMENTARY: The Y133.53-134.15 support confirmed significance Tuesday. The
recovery resulted in fresh 2018 & 2+yr highs and confirmed overall bullish focus
on Y139.02-141.05 where monthly highs are located. Support layers accumulating
add to bullish confidence. Bears now need a close below Y135.95 to ease
immediate bullish pressure and below the 21-DMA to return focus to
Y133.61-134.32 where 55 & 100-DMAs and bull channel base are found.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Now Focused On $1302.5-1305.6
*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 
*RES 3: $1359.7 - Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance 
*RES 2: $1352.3 - High Jan 29 
*RES 1: $1336.9 - Hourly resistance Feb 2
*PRICE: $1332.9 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $1327.1 - Low Feb 2 
*SUP 2: $1323.7 - Low Jan 18 
*SUP 3: $1315.4 - Low Jan 11 
*SUP 4: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4
*COMMENTARY: The failure to break back above $1352.3 last week left gold looking
heavy and resulted in a marginal close below the 21-DMA ($1334.7) Friday adding
weight to the case for a test of $1302.5-1305.6. Layers of resistance are
accumulating and weighing with bulls needing a close above $1252.3 to regain the
upper hand and above $1374.9 to confirm focus on $1391.8-1433.3.
NYMEX WTI: (H18) Topside Failures A Concern 
*RES 4: $68.67 - Daily bull channel top 
*RES 3: $66.66 - 2018 High Jan 25 
*RES 2: $66.30 - High Feb 2 
*RES 1: $65.76 - Hourly resistance Feb 2
*PRICE: $65.45 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $64.47 - Low Feb 2 
*SUP 2: $64.06 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 3: $63.67 - Low Jan 31 
*SUP 4: $62.78 - Low Jan 19
*COMMENTARY: Repeated failures to trouble 2018 highs are a concern for bulls and
risk a correction back to the $60.22-62.05 region where the 55-DMA is located.
Bears now look for a close below $63.67 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and
shift focus to $60.22-62.05. Bulls continue to look for a close above $66.66 to
shift focus to $68.67-71.27 where daily and weekly bull channel tops are
situated.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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