MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

1 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

     Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

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AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Still Need Close Below $0.7729

*RES 4: $0.7910 - Hourly resistance Feb 20

*RES 3: $0.7878 - 21-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7869 - 55-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7819 - High Feb 28

*PRICE: $0.7772 @ 1030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7729 - High Dec 25 now support 

*SUP 2: $0.7694 - High Dec 15 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7629 - Low Dec 14 

*SUP 4: $0.7629 - Low Dec 14

*COMMENTARY: The break of $0.7867 shifted initial focus to $0.7229-0.7784 with

bears continuing to look for a close below $0.7729 to end bullish hopes and

shift focus to $0.7500 Dec lows. The pair is currently trading below the 200-DMA

($0.7784) which adds weight to the bearish case. Bulls now need a close above

the $0.7910 to ease bearish pressure and above $0.7989 to return focus to

$0.8118-62 where 2018 highs and May 2015 monthly highs are noted.

     KIWI TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below 200-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7345 - High Feb 26 

*RES 3: $0.7318 - Hourly resistance Feb 26 

*RES 2: $0.7272 - Low Feb 23 now resistance 

*RES 1: $0.7252 - Hourly resistance Feb 27

*PRICE: $0.7208 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7175 - 200-DMA

*SUP 2: $0.7130 - High Jan 2 now support

*SUP 3: $0.7088 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: $0.7043 - High Dec 26 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the aggressive sell-off Friday and closes

below the 21-DMA. The close below $0.7269 confirms a break of the bull channel

base and shift focus back to $0.7130-75 where the 200-DMA is situated. Bulls now

look for a close above $0.7272 to gain breathing room and above $0.7385 to

target $0.7438-0.7558 where 2018 & 2017 highs are situated.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Rejected Ahead Of 55-WMA

*RES 4: NZ$1.0972 - 100-DMA

*RES 3: NZ$1.0892 - 55-DMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.0851 - 200-DMA

*RES 1: NZ$1.0835 - 55-WMA

*PRICE: NZ$1.0786 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0741 - Hourly resistance Feb 26 now support

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0700 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0650 - 2018 Low Feb 22

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0588 - Low July 31

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on 2018 lows combined with correcting

O/S studies has provided the impetus for probes higher with the pair currently

capped ahead of the 55-WMA with key MAs noted NZ$1.0835-1.0972. Bulls now look

for close above the 55-DMA to hint at a move targeting NZ$1.1072-1.1139 and

above the 100-DMA to confirm. Bears now need a close below NZ$1.0741 to shit

focus back to 2018 lows.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bears Remain Focused On 2017 Low

*RES 4: Y84.89 - High Feb 14 

*RES 3: Y84.23 - Low Feb 20 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y83.80 - High Feb 28 

*RES 1: Y83.26 - Low Feb 23 now resistance

*PRICE: Y82.80 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y82.56 - Low June 8

*SUP 2: Y81.76 - Lows May 18 & June 6 2017

*SUP 3: Y81.47 - 2017 Low May 19

*SUP 4: Y80.24 - Low Nov 11 2016

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in fresh 2018 & 8mth lows that add weight to the

case for a test of Y81.47 2017 lows that have been bearish focus for the past

couple of weeks. A close below 2017 lows potentially targets Y76.80. Bulls now

need a close above Y83.26 to gain breathing room and above Y83.80 to target a

correction back to Y84.23-89 where the 21-DMA (Y85.03) is situated.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Broad Sideways Trading Persists

*RES 4: A$1.5968 - High Feb 12 2016

*RES 3: A$1.5889 - Weekly Bollinger band top

*RES 2: A$1.5816 - 2018 High Feb 14

*RES 1: A$1.5759 - High Feb 23

*PRICE: A$1.5698 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5598 - Low Feb 20 

*SUP 2: A$1.5546 - Low Feb 2 

*SUP 3: A$1.5495 - Monthly High Jan 25 

*SUP 4: A$1.5474 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Sideways trading within a A$1.5598-1.5816 range continues with

follow through lacking in both direction. Bears need a close below A$1.5598 to

shift focus back to A$1.5474-95 where the 55-DMA is located. Bulls continue to

look for a close above 2018 highs to reconfirm a bullish bias and target

A$1.5968-1.6250 where 2016 highs are located, Daily studies remain at neutral

levels and are providing few clues.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Below 90.080 Support Key Today

*RES 4: 94.219 - Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 3: 92.640 - 2018 High Jan 9 

*RES 2: 91.751 - Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 1: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance

*PRICE: 90.645 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 90.235 - High Feb 21 now support

*SUP 2: 90.080 - Hourly resistance Feb 27 now support

*SUP 3: 89.442 - High Feb 19 now support

*SUP 4: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*COMMENTARY: The 89.442 support confirmed significance this week with the dip

Monday finding support ahead of this level and seeing immediate focus now on the

91.011-92.640 resistance region. Bulls still need a close above 92.640 to end

bearish hopes and shift focus to 94.076-95.149. Support layers building adds to

bullish confidence. Bears continue to look for a close below 98.080 to gain

breathing room.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.2258

*RES 4: $1.2435 High Feb 19

*RES 3: $1.2372 Hourly resistance Feb 20

*RES 2: $1.2349 21-DMA

*RES 1: $1.2259 Low Feb 22 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.2202 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2190 Hourly support Feb 28 

*SUP 2: $1.2167 Low Jan 17 

*SUP 3: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.2018 High Jan 10 now support

*COMMENTARY: Immediate focus is now on the $1.2092-1.2167 support region

following the recent topside failures ahead of $1.2372. Below $1.2092 is needed

to end bullish hopes and initially target $1.1915-88 where the 100-DMA is

located. Bulls initially look for a close above $1.2259 to gain breathing room.

Overall a close above $1.2372 confirm breaks of 21 & 55-DMAs, and above $1.2461

is needed to shift focus to 2018 highs.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y108.03-42 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y107.93 21-DMA 

*RES 2: Y107.68 High Feb 27 

*RES 1: Y106.93 Hourly support Feb 28 now resistance

*PRICE: Y106.68 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.36 Low Feb 26 

*SUP 2: Y106.10 Low Feb 19 

*SUP 3: Y105.50 Monthly High Oct 2016 now support 

*SUP 4: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016

*COMMENTARY: The Y108.03-42 resistance region remains key. Bulls need a close

above Y108.42 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and bear channel top (Y107.54),

hinting at a correction to Y110.47 and above Y109.78 to confirm. While Y108.42

caps bears retain the upper hand and remain focused on Y105.50 with a close

below Y106.36 to add weight to their case. Bears continue to look for a close

below Y105.50 to reconfirm focus on Y98.95-101.16.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Focus Shifts To Y125.80-127.54

*RES 4: Y132.24 Hourly support Feb 21 now resistance

*RES 3: Y131.70 Hourly support Feb 27 now resistance

*RES 2: Y131.45 Hourly support Feb 28a now resistance

*RES 1: Y130.57 Hourly support Feb 28 now resistance

*PRICE: Y130.12 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.64 200-WMA 

*SUP 2: Y129.34 Monthly Low Sept 6 

*SUP 3: Y128.50 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y127.54 Monthly Low Aug 18

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 6mth lows leave the pair looking heavy with overall

focus shifting to Y125.80-127.54. Immediate focus is on 55 & 200-WMAs which may

support along the way. Weekly studies have room to move before O/S is an issue.

Layers of resistance are following the pair lower with bulls now needing a close

above Y131.15 to gain breathing room and above Y132.24 to target a correction

back to Y133.05-134.23 where key DMAs are situated.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Initial Focus Shifts To 100-DMA

*RES 4: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1340.7 - High Feb 26 

*RES 2: $1330.0 - Hourly support Feb 26 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1323.9 - Hourly support Feb 27 now resistance

*PRICE: $1317.6 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1314.0 - Low Feb 27 

*SUP 2: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4 

*SUP 3: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 

*SUP 4: $1300.2 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through above the 21-DMA ($1332.7) and rejection

ahead of the $1344.7-1351.3 region took its toll with a sell-off and dips below

the 55-DMA ($1318.8) that shifts focus to the 100-DMA. Bears need a close below

the 100-DMA to hint at a move back to Dec lows ($1235.9) with below the 200-DMA

($1287.2) to confirm. Layers of resistance are building with bulls need a close

above $1330.0 to gain breathing room.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) Immediate Focus On $60.57 

*RES 4: $64.24 - High Feb 26 

*RES 3: $63.58 - Hourly resistance Feb 27 

*RES 2: $61.95 - Hourly resistance Feb 28 

*RES 1: $61.75 - Hourly support Feb 28 now resistance

*PRICE: $61.64 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $60.76 - Low Feb 22 

*SUP 2: $60.57 - Hourly resistance Feb 15 now support 

*SUP 3: $59.60 - Low Feb 15 

*SUP 4: $58.93 - Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: Failure to better Monday's high and the hesitation ahead of $64.96

combined with O/B studies continues to weigh with bearish focus currently on the

close below $60.57 needed to shift focus back to $57.90-58.95 where the 100-DMA

and bull channel base are noted. Bulls now need a close above $63.58 to gain

breathing room and above $64.96 to target $66.39-65 where 2018 highs are noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]