MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

6 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Still Need Close Below $0.7694

*RES 4: $0.7872 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7840 - 21-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7819 - High Feb 28

*RES 1: $0.7787 - 200-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7760 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7710 - 2018 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 2: $0.7694 - High Dec 15 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7622 - Low Dec 14 

*SUP 4: $0.7580 - High Dec 12 now support

*COMMENTARY: Key supports crumbled following the close below the 200-DMA but

follow through has been limited courtesy of the Bollinger band base ($0.7224).

Bears tentatively focus on $0.7500 Dec lows. In saying that, bulls look for a

close above $0.7819 to confirm breaks of 100 & 200-DMAs to ease bearish pressure

and above $0.7910 to initially target $0.7989. Bears continue to look for a

close below $0.7694 to add weight to their case.

     KIWI TECHS: Above 21-DMA To Gain Breathing Room

*RES 4: $0.7345 - High Feb 26 

*RES 3: $0.7318 - Hourly resistance Feb 26 

*RES 2: $0.7291 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $0.7279 - High Mar 2

*PRICE: $0.7224 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7176 - 200-DMA

*SUP 2: $0.7130 - High Jan 2 now support

*SUP 3: $0.7089 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: $0.7043 - High Dec 26 now support

*COMMENTARY: A bullish key day reversal emerged after the bounce from ahead of

the 200-DMA. Bulls look for a close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and

above $0.7385 to target $0.7438-0.7558 where 2018 & 2017 highs are situated.

Bears still need a close below the 200-DMA to hint at a move back to $0.6952 and

then $0.6779 2017 lows. The Bollinger base is noted at $0.7170 and is the key

concern for bears.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Above 21-DMA To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: NZ$1.0879 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: NZ$1.0850 - 200-DMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.0831 - 55-WMA

*RES 1: NZ$1.0749 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: NZ$1.0741 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0650 - 2018 Low Feb 22

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0588 - Low July 31

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0491 - Low July 13

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0458 - LT Rising TL off 2015 Low

*COMMENTARY: The topside failure last week ahead of the 55-WMA and key DMAs

resulted in an aggressive sell-off and immediate focus back on 2018 lows. Bears

look for a close below NZ$1.0650 to add weight to the case for a test of

NZ$1.0458-91 where the LT rising TL off 2015 lows is noted. Bulls now need a

close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and above the 55-DMA to hint at a

move targeting NZ$1.1072-1.1139.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Double Daily Bottom In Place

*RES 4: Y84.23 - Low Feb 20 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y83.80 - High Feb 28 

*RES 2: Y83.26 - Low Feb 23 now resistance

*RES 1: Y82.60 - High Feb 2

*PRICE: Y82.43 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y81.93 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 2: Y81.47 - 2017 Low May 19, 2018 Low Mar 5

*SUP 3: Y80.24 - Low Nov 11 2016

*SUP 4: Y76.78 - Monthly Low Nov 9 2016

*COMMENTARY: 2018 & 8mth lows continue but a lack of follow through leaves a

double daily bottom in place with the Bollinger base and O/S daily studies key

concerns. Bulls continue to look for a close above Y83.26 to gain breathing room

and above Y84.89 to target a correction back to key DMAs clustered Y86.45-58.

Bears now need a close below Y80.24 to confirm focus on Y75.95-76.78.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below A$1.5817

*RES 4: A$1.6250 - 2016 High Feb 11

*RES 3: A$1.5968 - High Feb 12 2016

*RES 2: A$1.5959 - Weekly Bollinger band top

*RES 1: A$1.5937 - 2018 High Mar 5

*PRICE: A$1.5886 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5817 - High Mar 1 now support 

*SUP 2: A$1.5697 - Low Mar 1 

*SUP 3: A$1.5598 - Low Feb 20 

*SUP 4: A$1.5546 - Low Feb 2

*COMMENTARY: Sideways trading within a A$1.5598-1.5816 range has come to an end

with a break higher Friday & fresh 2018 and 2+year highs again Monday. Bulls

shift focus to A$1.6250 2016 highs with daily studies being well placed for

gains. The Bollinger top (A$1.5842) is the key concern for bulls. Bears now look

for a close below A$1.5817 to ease immediate bullish pressure and below A$1.5697

to shift focus back to A$1.5598.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 21-DMA Now Supporting

*RES 4: 90.770 - 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 90.567 - Hourly support Mar 1 now resistance 

*RES 2: 90.420 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 

*RES 1: 90.293 - High Mar 2

*PRICE: 90.084 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 89.828 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 89.442 - High Feb 19 now support

*SUP 3: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*SUP 4: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16

*COMMENTARY: The failure around the 55-DMA and ahead of the 91.011 resistance

left a bearish key day reversal in place with the close below 90.080 shifting

initial focus to 89.442. The 21-DMA is now supporting. A close below 89.442 is

needed to shift immediate focus back to 2018 lows. Correcting O/B studies and

the Bollinger top (90.839) remain concerns for bulls who now need a close above

91.011 to initially pressure 91.751.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2372-1.2435 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: $1.2604 Weekly Bear channel top

*RES 3: $1.2555 2018 High Feb 16

*RES 2: $1.2435 High Feb 19

*RES 1: $1.2372 Hourly resistance Feb 20

*PRICE: $1.2328 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2251 Hourly support Mar 2 

*SUP 2: $1.2223 Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2153 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 4: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the dip below the 55-DMA ($1.2202)

was a concern for bears given modestly O/S daily studies and the Bollinger base

at $1.2173. Immediate focus has returned to $1.2372-1.2435 with a close above

needed to return initial focus to 2018 highs. The $1.2092 support remains key.

Bears need a close below to end bullish hopes and initially target $1.1915-00

where the 100-DMA is located.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y106.54 Resistance Remains Key Today

*RES 4: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y107.41 21-DMA 

*RES 2: Y107.19 High Mar 1 

*RES 1: Y106.54 Low Feb 28 now resistance

*PRICE: Y106.22 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.22 2018 Low Mar 2 

*SUP 2: Y105.12 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016 

*SUP 4: Y100.07 Monthly Lows Sept 22 & 27 2016

*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation ahead of Y108.03-42 left the pair looking

heavy and has resulted in fresh 2018 & 15mth lows. Follow through has been a

little lacking but bears continue to focus on Y98.95-101.15. Resistance layers

are accumulating and weighing. Bulls need a close above Y106.54 to gain

breathing room. Above Y108.03 is needed to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and

hint at a correction to Y109.79-110.47 with above Y108.42 to confirm.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Remains Supported Around 200-WMA

*RES 4: Y133.49 100-DMA

*RES 3: Y133.05 High Feb 21

*RES 2: Y132.24 Hourly support Feb 21 now resistance

*RES 1: Y131.37 200-DMA

*PRICE: Y130.92 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.57 200-WMA 

*SUP 2: Y129.33 2018 Low Mar 5 

*SUP 3: Y128.66 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y127.54 Monthly Low Aug 18

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 6mth lows have lacked follow through with overall

focus remaining on Y125.80-127.54. Immediate focus is on 55 & 200-WMAs with the

200-WMA currently supporting. The Bollinger base is noted at Y129.50 and is now

limiting follow through. Bulls still need a close above the 200-DMA to gain

breathing room and above Y132.24 to target a correction back to Y133.05-134.17

where key DMAs are situated.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1330.0-1351.3 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1340.7 - High Feb 26 

*RES 2: $1330.0 - Hourly support Feb 26 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1328.9 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1318.5 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1312.9 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support 

*SUP 2: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 

*SUP 3: $1300.4 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1287.5 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from ahead of the 100-DMA and a dip below the

Bollinger base ($1305.6) is a concern for bears and could signal the end of the

correction from $1361.8 Feb highs. Bulls still need a close above $1330.0 to

gain breathing room and above $1351.3 to shift focus back to $1367.3-1374.9

where 2016 highs are noted. Bears need a close below the 100-DMA to hint at a

move back to $1235.9 Dec lows.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) Focus Returns To $64.24-96 

*RES 4: $66.39 - High Jan 25 

*RES 3: $64.96 - High Feb 5 

*RES 2: $64.24 - High Feb 26 

*RES 1: $63.58 - Hourly resistance Feb 27

*PRICE: $62.61 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $61.81 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $61.10 - Low Mar 5 

*SUP 3: $60.13 - Low Mar 2 

*SUP 4: $59.60 - Low Feb 15

*COMMENTARY: A lack of follow through on dips back to $60.13 has provided the

impetus for a close above 21 & 55 ($61.75) DMAs and sees focus return to

$64.24-97. Bulls now need a close above this region to return initial focus to

$66.39-65 where 2018 highs are noted. Bears now need a close below the $61.10 to

confirm breaks of 21 & 55-DMAs and return focus to $57.90-59.59 where the

100-DMA and bull channel base are noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]