MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

16 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7694-0.7775 Support Now Key

*RES 4: $0.7935 - High Feb 19

*RES 3: $0.7906 - Falling TL off 2018 high

*RES 2: $0.7889 - 55-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7834 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7800 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7775 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7753 - Hourly support Mar 5 

*SUP 3: $0.7710 - 2018 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 4: $0.7694 - High Dec 15 now support

*COMMENTARY: Breaks of the 55-DMA lacked follow through with the pair rejected

ahead of the falling daily TL off 2018 highs this week. The likely close below

the 21-DMA sees focus back on the $0.7694-0.7775 region where the 100-DMA is

situated. Bears need a close below $0.7694 to confirm focus on tests of $0.7500

Dec lows. Daily studies are well placed for losses. Bulls now need a close above

the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and above $0.7989 to target $0.8135-62.

     KIWI TECHS: Focus Returns To $0.7174-0.7243

*RES 4: $0.7385 - High Feb 21 

*RES 3: $0.7354 - Highs Mar 13 & 14 

*RES 2: $0.7337 - Hourly resistance Mar 14 

*RES 1: $0.7303 - Hourly support Mar 15 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7275 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7243 - Low Mar 8

*SUP 2: $0.7192 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: $0.7182 - 200-DMA

*SUP 4: $0.7174 - Monthly Low Feb 8

*COMMENTARY: The pair is again looking heavy following the lack of topside

follow through so far this week with focus back on the $0.7174-0.7243 region

where the 200-DMA is located. Bears now need a close below $0.7174 to hint at a

move back to $0.6779 Dec lows with below the 100-DMA ($0.7113) confirming. Bulls

now need a close above $0.7303 to gain breathing room and above $0.7354 to

confirm initial focus on 2018 highs.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bollinger Bands Continue To Narrow

*RES 4: NZ$1.0894 - High Feb 8

*RES 3: NZ$1.0861 - 200-DMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.0833 - 55-WMA

*RES 1: NZ$1.0784 - High Mar 15, Bollinger band top

*PRICE: NZ$1.0721 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0700 - Low Mar 9

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0650 - 2018 Low Feb 22

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0588 - Low July 31

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0491 - Low July 13

*COMMENTARY: Sideways trading continues as Bolli bands narrow increasing the

likelihood of a breakout in the near future. Bears need a close below NZ$1.0700

to return focus to NZ$1.0588-1.0650 where 2018 lows and the bear channel base

are situated. Bulls still need a close above NZ$1.0894 to confirm breaks of 55 &

200-DMAs and hint at a move to NZ$1.1006-73 where 2018 highs are noted although

the 100-DMA (NZ$1.0928) and bear channel top (NZ$1.0964) may slow the move.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Below Y82.50 To Confirm Focus On 2018 Low

*RES 4: Y84.54 - High Mar 13 

*RES 3: Y83.97 - Hourly support Mar 14 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y83.47 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: Y83.22 - Hourly support Mar 15 now resistance

*PRICE: Y82.89 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y82.50 - Low Mar 8

*SUP 2: Y82.03 - Low Mar 7

*SUP 3: Y81.47 - 2017 Low May 19, 2018 Low Mar 5

*SUP 4: Y80.24 - Low Nov 11 2016

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through this week has taken its toll

with a sharp sell-off and close below the 21-DMA that sees initial pressure on

the Y82.50 support and overall focus back on tests of the 2018 low and double

daily bottom at Y81.47. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower.

Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and shift initial

focus back to Y84.51-89.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Sideways Trading Continues

*RES 4: A$1.5887 - Bollinger band top

*RES 3: A$1.5853 - Hourly resistance Mar 8

*RES 2: A$1.5824 - High Mar 9

*RES 1: A$1.5795 - High Mar 15

*PRICE: A$1.5771 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5619 - Low Mar 12 

*SUP 2: A$1.5598 - Low Feb 20 

*SUP 3: A$1.5545 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: A$1.5525 - Daily Bull channel base off 2018 Low

*COMMENTARY: Sideways trading has dominated for the majority of this week with

the pair capped ahead of A$1.5824 and supported ahead of A$1.5598. Bulls now

look for a close above A$1.5824 to regain the upper hand and return immediate

focus to A$1.5941-76 where 2018 highs are noted and overall focus to A$1.6250.

Bears need a close below A$1.5598 to hint at a move back to A$1.5152-1.5256 with

below the 100-DMA (A$1.5493) to confirm.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 89.407 & 90.420 Levels Key

*RES 4: 90.420 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 

*RES 3: 90.256 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: 90.264 - High Mar 9 

*RES 1: 90.187 - High Mar 12

*PRICE: 90.121 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 89.922 - Hourly support Mar 15

*SUP 2: 89.407 - Low Mar 7

*SUP 3: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*SUP 4: 88.918 - Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: Pressure has returned to the 90.187-420 resistance region following

the failure to take out the 89.407 support. Bears still need a close below

89.407 to confirm traction below the 21-DMA (89.819), ending bullish hopes and

shifting focus back to 88.253 2018 lows. The 90.420 resistance remains key with

bulls needing a close above to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and shift initial

focus to 91.011. A close above 91.011 is needed to target 91.751.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Focus Back on 55-DMA

*RES 4: $1.2475 Bollinger band top

*RES 3: $1.2446 High Mar 8

*RES 2: $1.2414 High Mar 14

*RES 1: $1.2348 Hourly resistance Mar 15

*PRICE: $1.2300 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2272 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.2199 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $1.2153 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 4: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to challenge the key $1.2446 resistance with the pair

looking heavy having broken back below $1.2340 and focus having returned to the

55-DMA. Bears continue to look for a close below the 55-DMA to return focus to

the key $1.2092-1.2153 support region. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh

leg lower. Bulls now need a close above $1.2348 to gain breathing room and above

$1.2446 to target $1.2555-1.2639.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y107.29 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: Y107.50 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: Y107.29 High Mar 13 

*RES 2: Y106.75 High Mar 14 

*RES 1: Y106.40 Hourly resistance Mar 14

*PRICE: Y106.27 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.79 Hourly support Mar 7, Low Mar 15 

*SUP 2: Y105.22 2018 Low Mar 2 

*SUP 3: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016 

*SUP 4: Y100.07 Monthly Lows Sept 22 & 27 2016

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the Y105.79 level supporting although

accumulating resistance layers remain a concern. Bulls now need a close above

Y106.75 to gain breathing room and above Y107.29 to shift initial focus to

Y108.03-92 where the 55-DMA is located. While Y106.75 caps immediate focus

remains on 2018 lows with a close below to add weight to the case for a test of

Y98.95-101.15. Bolli bands narrowing hints at a break out in the near future.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Below Y130.49 Initially Pressures 2018 Low

*RES 4: Y132.44 High Mar 13

*RES 3: Y131.93 Hourly resistance Mar 14

*RES 2: Y131.66 200-DMA

*RES 1: Y131.29 Hourly resistance Mar 15

*PRICE: Y130.74 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.49 Low Mar 8 

*SUP 2: Y130.01 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: Y129.53 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y129.33 2018 Low Mar 5

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on closes above 21 (Y131.45) & 200

(Y131.66) DMAs with pair looking a little offered as a result. The Y130.49

support is key with bears needing a close below to shift initial focus back to

Y129.33-53 where 2018 lows and the 200-WMA are situated. Layers of resistance

remain a concern for bulls who now look for a close above Y132.44 to reconfirm

focus on Y133.05-134.16 where 55 (Y133.66) & 100 (Y133.34) DMAs are situated.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1312.9 & $1330.0 Levels Key Today

*RES 4: $1351.3 - High Feb 19 

*RES 3: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1340.7 - High Feb 26 

*RES 1: $1330.0 - High Mar 14

*PRICE: $1316.2 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1315.4 - Daily Bull channel base off Dec Low 

*SUP 2: $1312.9 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support 

*SUP 3: $1303.8 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2

*COMMENTARY: Despite pressuring the 21-DMA ($1327.7) bulls failed to gain

traction above with pressure returning to $1312.9. Bears look for a close below

$1312.9 to return focus to $1289.4-1303.8 where 100 & 200-DMAs are situated.

Bulls still need a close above $1330.0 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and gain

breathing room whereas a close above $1351.3 remains needed to initially focus

on $1367.3-1374.9 where 2016 highs are noted.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) Above $64.07 To Target 2018 High 

*RES 4: $63.05 - High Mar 6 

*RES 3: $62.22 - High Mar 12 

*RES 2: $62.09 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $61.60 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $61.28 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $60.86 - Low Mar 15 

*SUP 2: $60.18 - Low Mar 14 

*SUP 3: $59.91 - Low Mar 8 

*SUP 4: $59.50 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Support has emerged on dips back towards the key $59.18-91 support

region this week but layers of resistance $62.09-64.07 where the 55-DMA and bear

channel top are located remain key. Bulls need a close above $64.07 to return

focus to 2018 highs. Bears continue to look for a close below $59.18 to hint at

a move back to $54.10-55.90 with below $57.60 to confirm.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]