MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

22 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 200-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7935 - High Feb 19

*RES 3: $0.7879 - Falling TL off 2018 high

*RES 2: $0.7842 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 1: $0.7805 - 200-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7767 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7725 - High Mar 19 now support 

*SUP 2: $0.7669 - 2018 Low Mar 21 

*SUP 3: $0.7626 - 100-WMA, Low Dec 14 

*SUP 4: $0.7580 - High Dec 12 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 4mth lows lacked follow through resulting in a bullish

key day reversal Wednesday. Bulls now look for a close above the 200-DMA to gain

breathing room and confirm initial focus on $0.7842-0.7935 where the falling TL

off 2018 highs is located. The $0.7725 support is now key. Bears need a close

below this level to shift initial focus back to 2018 lows and overall focus back

to $0.7500-80.

     KIWI TECHS: Support Emerges Ahead Of WMAs

*RES 4: $0.7324 - Falling TL off 2018 high 

*RES 3: $0.7315 - Low Mar 14 now resistance 

*RES 2: $0.7282 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $0.7265 - Low Mar 15 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7231 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7217 - Hourly support Mar 21

*SUP 2: $0.7191 - Hourly resistance Mar 21 now support

*SUP 3: $0.7151 - Low Mar 21

*SUP 4: $0.7138 - 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Follow through has been lacking below the 200-DMA ($0.7182) with

support emerging ahead of key WMAs $0.7123-38. Bulls continue to look for a

close above the 55-DMA to shift initial focus back to $0.7315-54 where the TL

off 2018 highs is noted. The $0.7123-38 support region remains key with bears

needing a close below to hint at a move back to 2017 lows with below $0.7042 to

confirm.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Target Correction Back To NZ$1.0802-66

*RES 4: NZ$1.0894 - High Feb 8

*RES 3: NZ$1.0866 - 200-DMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.0831 - 55-WMA

*RES 1: NZ$1.0802 - High Mar 12

*PRICE: NZ$1.0740 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0702 - High Mar 21 now support

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0675 - Hourly support Mar 20

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0654 - Hourly support Mar 20a

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0631 - 2018 Low Mar 19

*COMMENTARY: Recent 2018 and 9mth lows lacked follow through with support layers

emerging on the hourlies. The close above the 21-DMA (NZ$1.0723) adds support to

the case for a correction back to NZ$1.0802-66 where 55 & 200-DMAs are situated.

Overall bulls need a close above the bear channel top off 2017 highs to

initially target NZ$1.1073 2018 highs. Bears now need a close below NZ$1.0702 to

return focus to NZ$1.0584-1.0631.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Y82.70 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: Y84.54 - High Mar 13 

*RES 3: Y83.97 - Hourly support Mar 14 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y83.49 - Low Mar 14 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y82.70 - Low Mar 15 now resistance

*PRICE: Y82.29 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y82.04 - Hourly resistance Mar 21 now support

*SUP 2: Y81.45 - Low Mar 21

*SUP 3: Y81.22 - 2018 Low Mar 19

*SUP 4: Y80.24 - Low Nov 11 2016

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 18mth lows lacked follow through with the Bollinger

band base noted at Y81.48 and the key concern for bears. The recovery has

remained capped ahead of Y82.70. Bulls continue to look for a close above Y82.70

to hint at a move back to Y84.51-89 with above Y83.49 to confirm. Bears now need

a close below Y82.04 to retain immediate focus on 2018 lows and below Y80.24 to

target Y75.95-76.78.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Below 21-DMA To Target A$1.5495-1.5594

*RES 4: A$1.6061 - Daily Bull channel top

*RES 3: A$1.6040 - 2018 High Mar 20

*RES 2: A$1.6000 - High Mar 21

*RES 1: A$1.5941 - Hourly support Mar 21 now resistance

*PRICE: A$1.5889 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5828 - Hourly resistance Mar 16 now support 

*SUP 2: A$1.5790 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: A$1.5688 - Low Mar 15 

*SUP 4: A$1.5594 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite recent 2018 & 2+yr highs the bull channel top capped with

the sell-off leaving the pair looking heavy. Resistance layers accumulating on

the hourlies is adding weight to the case for a correction initially targeting

the 21-DMA. Bears now need a close below the 21-DMA to shift focus back to

A$1.5495-1.5594 where 55 & 100-DMAs and the bull channel base off 2018 lows are

found. Bulls now need a close above $1.5941 to gain breathing room.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 89.407 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 90.445 - High Mar 20 

*RES 3: 90.260 - Hourly resistance Mar 21 

*RES 2: 90.011 - Hourly support Mar 21 now resistance 

*RES 1: 89.846 - Low Mar 20 now resistance

*PRICE: 89.687 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 89.561 - Low Mar 14

*SUP 2: 89.407 - Low Mar 7

*SUP 3: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*SUP 4: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16

*COMMENTARY: The marginal break of 90.420 lacked follow through with the

Bollinger band top the key concern for bulls. The aggressive sell-off and

bearish close Wednesday sees pressure back on the 89.407-561 support region.

Bears need a close below 89.407 to confirm traction below the 21-DMA (90.018),

ending bullish hopes and shifting focus back to 88.253 2018 lows. Bulls now need

a close above 90.011 to ease bearish pressure.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Layers Of Resistance $1.2359-1.2446

*RES 4: $1.2446 High Mar 8

*RES 3: $1.2412 High Mar 14

*RES 2: $1.2361 Daily Bear channel top off 2018 high

*RES 1: $1.2359 High Mar 19

*PRICE: $1.2346 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2296 Hourly resistance Mar 21 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.2237 Low Mar 20 

*SUP 3: $1.2207 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $1.2167 Daily Bull channel base off Nov Low

*COMMENTARY: Follow through has been lacking on the break of $1.2241 but bears

take comfort in layers of resistance $1.2359-1.2446 where the bear channel top

off 2018 highs and Bollinger top ($1.2419) are noted. Bulls need a close above

$1.2446 to end bearish hopes and return focus to $1.2555-1.2639 where the LT

bear channel top off 2008 highs are found. Bears need a close below $1.2237 to

confirm focus on $1.2092-1.2167.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y106.75-107.29 Resistance Region To Watch

*RES 4: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y107.40 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: Y107.29 High Mar 13 

*RES 1: Y106.75 High Mar 14

*PRICE: Y106.46 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.60 Low Mar 16 

*SUP 2: Y105.22 2018 Low Mar 2 

*SUP 3: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016 

*SUP 4: Y100.07 Monthly Lows Sept 22 & 27 2016

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of Y106.75-107.29 continues. Bulls continue to

look for a close above Y106.75 to ease bearish pressure and above Y107.29 to

shift focus to Y108.03-42. Support remains Y105.22-60. Bears need a close below

Y105.22 2018 lows to reconfirm overall focus on Y99.08-101.15. Daily studies

remain largely neutral but the Bollinger band base at Y105.53 remains a concern

for bears having limited follow through on 2018 lows.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 200-DMA

*RES 4: Y133.05 High Feb 21

*RES 3: Y132.44 High Mar 13

*RES 2: Y131.81 200-DMA

*RES 1: Y131.33 Daily Bear channel top

*PRICE: Y130.76 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.19 Low Mar 21 

*SUP 2: Y129.87 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: Y129.48 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y129.33 2018 Low Mar 5

*COMMENTARY: The rejection at the 200-DMA and bear channel top off 2018 highs

Tuesday leaves the pair looking heavy with focus back on the Y129.07-48 support

region where 55 & 200-WMAs and the 2018 low are situated. Bears need a close

below the 55-WMA to target Y125.80-127.54. The Bollinger base is the key concern

having limited follow through. Bulls now need a close above the 200-DMA to

target Y132.44-134.16 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Layers of Support $1318.3-1329.6

*RES 4: $1351.3 - High Feb 19 

*RES 3: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1340.7 - High Feb 26 

*RES 1: $1335.7 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: $1332.4 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1329.6 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1322.8 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1318.3 - High Mar 20 now support 

*SUP 4: $1305.6 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards the 100-DMA has provided the

base for an aggressive break of key DMAs with focus having returned to layers of

resistance $1340.7-1351.3. The Bollinger top is the key concern for bulls.

Layers of support have been left in the wake with bears now needing a close

below $1318.3 to shift focus back to $1302.5-1305.6 where the 100-DMA is

located.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) $63.99-64.65 Support Region Key 

*RES 4: $67.03 - Weekly Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: $66.66 - 2018 High Jan 25 (Cont) 

*RES 2: $66.02 - Monthly High Jan 25 

*RES 1: $65.63 - Monthly High Feb 2

*PRICE: $65.48 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $64.65 - Hourly support Mar 21 

*SUP 2: $63.99 - Hourly support Mar 21a 

*SUP 3: $63.31 - Hourly support Mar 20 

*SUP 4: $62.52 - Hourly support Mar 20a

*COMMENTARY: The aggressive break of the $64.07 level sees bulls now focused on

$65.63-66.66 where monthly and 2018 highs are situated. A close above $66.66 is

needed to target the bull channel top ($68.77). The Bollinger band top ($64.56)

is the key concern for bulls with potential to limit follow through. Bears now

need a close below $64.65 to gain breathing room and below $63.99 to shift focus

back to $63.05.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]