MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

11 April 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Above $0.7842 To End Bearish Hopes

*RES 4: $0.7818 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7812 - 200-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7787 - Falling daily TL off 2018 high

*RES 1: $0.7784 - High Mar 22

*PRICE: $0.7727 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7718 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7691 - Hourly support Apr 10 

*SUP 3: $0.7634 - 100-WMA 

*SUP 4: $0.7630 - Low Dec 14

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort as the pair gains traction above the 21-DMA

($0.7715) with focus firmly on the $0.7784-0.7842 region where key WMA and DMAs

and the falling TL off 2018 highs are found. Bulls need a close above $0.7842 to

end bearish hopes and shift initial focus to $0.7916 and overall focus back to

$0.8135-62. Bears need a close below $0.7691 to ease bullish pressure and below

$0.7630 to confirm a break of the 100-WMA and reconfirm focus on $0.7500-86.

     KIWI TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below $0.7324

*RES 4: $0.7458 - Low July 28 now resistance 

*RES 3: $0.7438 - 2018 High Feb 16 

*RES 2: $0.7415 - Hourly support Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 1: $0.7385 - High Feb 21

*PRICE: $0.7360 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7354 - Highs Mar 13 & 14 now support

*SUP 2: $0.7324 - High Apr 6 now support

*SUP 3: $0.7286 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: $0.7241 - Low Apr 6

*COMMENTARY: The bounce from $0.7241 has resulted in focus having returned to

2018 highs. Overall bulls look for a close above $0.7458 to confirm focus on

$0.7558 2017 highs. The Bollinger top ($0.7359) is the key concern for bulls

with potential to limit follow through. Bears now need a close below $0.7324 to

ease bullish pressure and below $0.7241 to confirm focus back on $0.7130-93

where DMA and WMAs are found.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Above NZ$1.0669 To Target 55-DMA

*RES 4: NZ$1.0690 - High Mar 23

*RES 3: NZ$1.0669 - High Mar 29

*RES 2: NZ$1.0628 - 21-DMA

*RES 1: NZ$1.0608 - High Apr 6

*PRICE: NZ$1.0538 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0501 - 2018 Low Apr 9

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0491 - Low July 13

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0468 - LT rising daily TL off 2015 Low

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0394 - Monthly Low July 7 2017

*COMMENTARY: Recent 2018 & 9mth lows reconfirm immediate bearish focus on the LT

rising daily TL off 2015 lows with a close below then targeting NZ$1.0367 June

lows. Follow through has been lacking Monday courtesy of the Bollinger base

(NZ$1.0496). In saying that, bulls need a close above NZ$1.0608 to ease

immediate bearish pressure and above NZ$1.0669 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA

and initially target the 55-DMA (NZ$1.0733).

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Above 55-DMA To Target Y84.51-85.59

*RES 4: Y84.54 - High Mar 13 

*RES 3: Y83.97 - Hourly support Mar 14 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y83.75 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: Y83.49 - Low Mar 14 now resistance

*PRICE: Y83.21 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y82.70 - Previous key resistance now support

*SUP 2: Y81.87 - Low Apr 6

*SUP 3: Y81.26 - Low Apr 4

*SUP 4: Y80.77 - Low Mar 28

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on Y82.70 has taken its toll with an aggressive break

higher and bullish close Tuesday. Bulls now look for a close above the 55-DMA to

add support the case for a move back to Y84.51-85.89 where key DMA and WMAs are

noted. Initial support is found at Y82.70 with bears needing a close below to

ease bullish pressure and below Y81.87 to shift focus back to 2018 lows.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: 55-DMA Support Now Key

*RES 4: A$1.6084 - High Apr 2

*RES 3: A$1.6060 - High Apr 9

*RES 2: A$1.6017 - High Apr 10

*RES 1: A$1.5987 - Hourly resistance Apr 10

*PRICE: A$1.5918 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5888 - Low Apr 10 

*SUP 2: A$1.5871 - Daily Bull channel base off Jan 29 low 

*SUP 3: A$1.5856 - Low Mar 22 

*SUP 4: A$1.5795 - High Mar 15 now support

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on 2018 & 2+yr highs sees

pressure on the A$1.5781-1.5871 support region where the 55-DMA and daily bull

channel base off Jan 29 lows are noted. Bears look for a close below the 55-DMA

to shift focus to A$1.5495-1.5626 where the 100-DMA is found. Bulls now need a

close above A$1.5987 to gain breathing room and above A$1.6117 to reconfirm

focus on A$1.6191-1.6335 where 2018 highs and bull channel top are noted.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Looking Heavy Once Again

*RES 4: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: 90.597 - High Apr 6 

*RES 2: 90.273 - High Apr 9 

*RES 1: 89.970 - High Apr 10

*PRICE: 89.628 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 89.216 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 2: 88.942 - Monthly Low Mar 27

*SUP 3: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16

*SUP 4: 88.253 - 2018 Low Feb 16

*COMMENTARY: Follow through on breaks of recent ranges remains lacking with the

topside break failure now seeing a close below the 55-DMA (89.762) and immediate

focus back on the 88.942 support. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg

lower. Bulls now look for a close above 89.970 to gain breathing room and above

90.597 to shift immediate focus to 91.011-751 where the 100-DMA (91.049) is

found.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Now Need Close Above $1.2476

*RES 4: $1.2555 2018 High Feb 16

*RES 3: $1.2477 High Mar 27

*RES 2: $1.2434 Daily Bear channel top

*RES 1: $1.2377 High Apr 10

*PRICE: $1.2352 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2325 Hourly support Apr 10 

*SUP 2: $1.2290 High Apr 6 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2257 Hourly support Apr 6 

*SUP 4: $1.2209 Low Apr 6

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's dips below the bull channel base sees

a likely close above the 55-DMA ($1.2338) with bulls now looking for a close

above $1.2477 to confirm a return in focus to $1.2555-1.2611 where the LT bear

channel top off 2018 highs is located. Support layers accumulating is a concern

for bears. Initial support is noted at $1.2325 but bears need a close below

$1.2290 to return focus to $1.2153-1.2209.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Above Y107.49 To Shift Focus Higher

*RES 4: Y109.49 100-WMA 

*RES 3: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y107.49 High Apr 5

*PRICE: Y107.22 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.57 Low Apr 9 

*SUP 2: Y106.30 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y105.29 Hourly resistance Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 4: Y104.55 2018 Low Mar 26

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the close above the 55-DMA Thursday

with the sell-off providing bears breathing room. A close below the 21-DMA is

now needed to shift initial focus back to Y105.29. The Y107.49 resistance is

key. Bulls need a close above to reconfirm focus on Y108.03-42 with a close

above this region to target Y109.29-110.54 where key DMA and WMAs are situated.

Daily studies approaching O/B is the key concern for bulls.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: 100-DMA Remains Key Resistance

*RES 4: Y134.16 High Feb 9

*RES 3: Y133.05 100-DMA, 21-WMA

*RES 2: Y132.20 55-DMA

*RES 1: Y132.61 High Apr 10

*PRICE: Y132.44 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.16 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y131.99 High Apr 9 now support 

*SUP 3: Y130.82 Hourly support Apr 4 

*SUP 4: Y129.97 High Mar 23 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from dips back towards the 21-DMA (Y130.95) has

resulted in closes above 55 & 200-DMAs with immediate focus on the 21-WMA and

100-DMA. Bulls still need a close above these MAs to end bearish hopes and shift

overall focus back to 2018 highs. The Bollinger top (Y132.44) is the key concern

for bulls. Bears now look for a close below Y131.99 to ease bullish pressure and

below Y130.82 to shift initial focus back to Y128.94-129.96.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1356.7 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $1361.7 - High Feb 16 

*RES 3: $1356.7 - High Mar 27 

*RES 2: $1348.4 - High Apr 4 

*RES 1: $1342.6 - Hourly support Apr 4 now resistance

*PRICE: $1339.4 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1330.9 - Low Apr 10 

*SUP 2: $1326.9 - Low Apr 9 

*SUP 3: $1318.3 - High Mar 20 now support 

*SUP 4: $1312.9 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The $1318.3 support confirmed significance last week with bears

needing a close below to add to confidence and below the 100-DMA to confirm

focus on tests of the 200-DMA. Gains Monday provided bulls breathing room but

the $1356.7 resistance is key this week with bulls needing a close above to

confirm initial focus on $1366.7-1374.9. Bears now need a close below $1330.9 to

gain breathing room.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) Bulls Dominate While $63.94 Supports 

*RES 4: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 now resistance 

*RES 3: $69.54 - High Dec 1 2014 (Cont) 

*RES 2: $66.66 - 2018 High Jan 25 (Cont) 

*RES 1: $66.55 - High Mar 26

*PRICE: $65.51 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $64.37 - Hourly support Apr 10 

*SUP 2: $63.94 - Hourly resistance Apr 10 now support 

*SUP 3: $63.20 - Low Apr 10 

*SUP 4: $62.43 - Hourly resistance Apr 9 now support

*COMMENTARY: The bounce to start the new week has resulted in another aggressive

rally Tuesday that sees immediate focus return to $66.55-66. Bulls need a close

above this region to then target $69.54-73.25. Daily studies are perfectly

placed for a fresh leg higher. Bears now look for a close below $64.37 to gain

breathing room and below $63.94 to shift focus back to $61.03-81 where the

100-DMA is noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]