MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

30 April 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.7648

*RES 4: $0.7702 - Hourly resistance Apr 20

*RES 3: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23

*RES 2: $0.7620 - High Apr 24

*RES 1: $0.7590 - Hourly resistance Apr 25

*PRICE: $0.7554 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7530 - 2018 Low Apr 27 

*SUP 2: $0.7498 - Monthly Low Dec 8 2017 

*SUP 3: $0.7368 - Monthly Low June 1 2017 

*SUP 4: $0.7326 - Monthly Low May 9 2017

*COMMENTARY: Immediate focus remains on $0.7498 Dec lows. O/S daily studies and

the Bolli base ($0.7540) are concerns. Bears look for a close below $0.7498 to

confirm traction below the LT bull channel base and initially target $0.7326 May

2017 lows. Layers of resistance accumulating add weight to the bearish case with

bulls needing a close above $0.7648 to ease bearish pressure and above $0.7735

to shift focus back to $0.7805-42 where the 200-DMA is noted.

     KIWI TECHS: Follow Through Lacking Friday

*RES 4: $0.7176 - 200-DMA 

*RES 3: $0.7157 - High Apr 24 

*RES 2: $0.7132 - Hourly resistance Apr 24 

*RES 1: $0.7102 - Hourly support Apr 25 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7082 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7037 - 2018 Low Apr 27

*SUP 2: $0.6952 - Low Dec 20

*SUP 3: $0.6899 - Low Dec 12

*SUP 4: $0.6815 - Monthly Low Dec 1

*COMMENTARY: With bears focused on the $0.6952 support from Dec 20 Friday's lack

of follow through on 2018 lows is a concern. The Bollinger base ($0.7031) remain

the key issues for bears. Bears look for a close below $0.6952 to initially

target $0.6779 Nov lows. Layers of resistance continue to build with bulls now

needing a close above $0.7102 to gain breathing room and above $0.7198 to

initially target a correction back to $0.7258-0.7302.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: NZ$1.0826 - High Feb 28

*RES 3: NZ$1.0803 - 55-WMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.0781 - 21-WMA

*RES 1: NZ$1.0762 - High Mar 22

*PRICE: NZ$1.0694 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0666 - 55-DMA

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0601 - High Apr 17 now support

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0549 - Low Apr 16

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0486 - 2018 Low Apr 12

*COMMENTARY: The bounce from recent 2018 & 9mth lows confirmed the significance

of the LT rising daily TL (NZ$1.0478) off 2015 lows with the close above the

55-DMA shifting focus to NZ$1.0781-1.0894 where key DMAs, WMAs and the bear

channel top are situated. Bears need a close below the 55-DMA to gain breathing

room and below NZ$1.0601 to shift focus back to NZ$1.0459-86 where bull and bear

channel bases & 2018 lows are noted.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y82.37

*RES 4: Y84.06 - High Apr 13 

*RES 3: Y83.94 - High Apr 19 

*RES 2: Y83.59 - Hourly support Apr 18 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y83.15 - High Apr 20

*PRICE: Y82.65 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y82.37 - Low Apr 27

*SUP 2: Y81.87 - Low Apr 6

*SUP 3: Y81.26 - Low Apr 4

*SUP 4: Y80.77 - Low Mar 28

*COMMENTARY: The Y84.06 resistance confirmed significance with an aggressive

rejection ahead of this level in past weeks leaving the pair looking heavy and

flirting with the 21-DMA (Y82.68). Bears now need a close below Y82.37 to hint

at a move back to 2018 lows with below Y81.87 to confirm. Correcting O/B studies

have weighed with bulls needing a close above Y83.15 to gain breathing room and

above Y84.06 to shift initial focus to Y84.89-85.59.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Below A$1.5961 To Shift Focus To A$1.5771-1.5870

*RES 4: A$1.6191 - 2018 High Mar 28

*RES 3: A$1.6140 - High Apr 25

*RES 2: A$1.6098 - Bollinger band top

*RES 1: A$1.6056 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance

*PRICE: A$1.6000 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5973 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: A$1.5961 - Low Apr 20 

*SUP 3: A$1.5929 - Hourly resistance Apr 19 now support 

*SUP 4: A$1.5883 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around the Bollinger band top sees the pair looking a

little offered and pressure back on A$1.5961. Bears continue to look for a close

below A$1.5961 to shift focus back to A$1.5771-1.5883 where the bull channel

base and 55-DMA are situated. Bulls now need a close above A$1.6056 to gain

breathing room and above A$1.6191 to target A$1.6250 2016 highs.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 200-DMA Capping

*RES 4: 92.640 - 2018 High Jan 9 

*RES 3: 91.987 - 200-DMA 

*RES 2: 91.954 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 91.933 - Weekly Bear channel top off 2017 high

*PRICE: 91.503 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 91.426 - Hourly support Apr 26

*SUP 2: 91.320 - Hourly resistance Apr 26 now support

*SUP 3: 90.935 - Hourly support Apr 25

*SUP 4: 90.639 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The index is now hesitating ahead of the 200-DMA. Bulls still need

a close above the 200-DMA to target 92.625-997 where 2018 highs are situated.

Layers of support added to bullish confidence but very O/B daily studies are now

a concern. In saying that, bears now need a close below 91.320 to gain breathing

room and below 90.935 to shift focus initial focus back to 90.483-639 where the

100-DMA is noted.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.2144

*RES 4: $1.2312 Hourly support Apr 20 now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2248 Low Apr 20 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2222 100-DMA

*RES 1: $1.2144 Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.2120 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2053 Low Apr 27 

*SUP 2: $1.2024 Daily Bear channel base 

*SUP 3: $1.2011 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1.1914 2018 Low Jan 19

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the break of the $1.2092 weekly

support resulted in a bounce back towards initial resistance Friday. O/S daily

studies are seen as a key concern for bears. Bulls continue to look for a close

above $1.2144 to gain breathing room and above the 55-DMA ($1.2313) to shift

focus back to $1.2392-1.2476 where the bear channel top is noted. While $1.2144

caps bears look for a close below the 200-DMA initially target $1.1914.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y109.54

*RES 4: Y110.32 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: Y110.24 200-DMA 

*RES 2: Y109.79 High Feb 8 

*RES 1: Y109.48 100-WMA

*PRICE: Y109.06 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.97 Hourly support Apr 25 

*SUP 2: Y108.54 Hourly support Apr 23 

*SUP 3: Y108.27 Hourly resistance Apr 23 now support 

*SUP 4: Y107.85 High Apr 20 now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around WMAs & DMAs Y109.48-110.47 is a concern for bulls

with the lack of follow through beginning to weigh. Bears now look for a close

below Y108.54 to shift focus back to Y106.57-107.85 where the 21 (Y107.60) & 55

(Y106.85) DMAs are situated. The Bollinger top (Y109.58) remains a key concern

for bulls. In saying that, bulls need a close above the 100-WMA to gain

breathing room this week.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: Y134.16 High Feb 9

*RES 3: Y133.52 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: Y133.48 High Apr 24

*RES 1: Y132.52 Hourly resistance Apr 27

*PRICE: Y132.21 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.87 Low Apr 27 

*SUP 2: Y131.78 Low Apr 12 

*SUP 3: Y131.57 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y131.05 Low Apr 5

*COMMENTARY: Follow through above the 100-DMA (Y133.02) & 21-WMA (Y132.86)

remains lacking with focus back on Y131.57-87 as daily studies correct from O/B.

Bears need a close below Y131.05 to confirm traction below the 55-DMA and to

shift focus to Y128.94-130.44 where 55 (Y130.44) & 200 (Y129.27) WMAs are noted.

Bulls continue to look for a close above Y134.16 to confirm focus on 2018 highs

although the Bollinger top (Y133.52) may limit follow through.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Below $1302.5 Shifts Overall Focus To 200-WMA

*RES 4: $1339.3 - Hourly resistance Apr 20 

*RES 3: $1335.0 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $1332.6 - High Apr 24 

*RES 1: $1326.6 - High Apr 16

*PRICE: $1321.9 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1315.0 - Low Apr 26 

*SUP 2: $1306.9 - Low Mar 20 

*SUP 3: $1303.3 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1302.5 - Monthly Low Mar 1

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on the close below the 100-DMA Thursday

with focus on $1302.5-1306.9 where the 200-DMA & 2018 lows are noted. Bears need

a close below $1302.5 to hint at a move back to the 200-WMA ($1234.6) and Dec

low ($1235.9) with below the 55-WMA to confirm. Bulls need a close above $1326.7

to gain breathing room and above the 21-DMA to shift initial focus back to

$1355.1-1366.1.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) $67.11 Support Key Today

*RES 4: $71.11 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $70.40 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $69.55 - 2018 High Apr 19 

*RES 1: $68.78 - High Apr 26

*PRICE: $68.10 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $67.11 - Low Apr 25 

*SUP 2: $66.54 - Low Apr 18 

*SUP 3: $66.13 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $65.09 - Low Apr 11

*COMMENTARY: The rejection ahead of 2018 highs Tuesday is a concern for bulls

when combined with daily studies correcting from O/B and the proximity of the

Bollinger top. Bears look for a close below $67.11 to gain breathing room and

hint at a correction back to $65.09-66.13 where the 21-DMA is found. Bulls need

a close above $69.55 to reconfirm focus on $71.11-73.25 where the MT bull

channel top is noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]