MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

3 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: O/S Daily Studies Key Concern For Bears

*RES 4: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23

*RES 3: $0.7620 - High Apr 24

*RES 2: $0.7590 - Hourly resistance Apr 25

*RES 1: $0.7546 - High May 1

*PRICE: $0.7488 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7470 - 2018 Low May 1 

*SUP 2: $0.7368 - Monthly Low June 1 2017 

*SUP 3: $0.7326 - Monthly Low May 9 2017 

*SUP 4: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & nearly 12 month lows following the close below $0.7498

leaves the pair looking heavy and bears focused on $0.7326. Bears now look for a

close below this level to then target $0.7142 Dec 2016 monthly lows. O/S studies

remain the key concern for bears. Bulls now need a close above $0.7546 to gain

breathing room and above $0.7590 to initially pressure the $0.7648 resistance

level with the 21-DMA ($0.7654) lurking above.

     KIWI TECHS: Immediate Focus On $0.6952

*RES 4: $0.7157 - High Apr 24 

*RES 3: $0.7132 - Hourly resistance Apr 24 

*RES 2: $0.7102 - Hourly support Apr 25 now resistance 

*RES 1: $0.7040 - High May 1

*PRICE: $0.6996 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6988 - 2018 Low May 1

*SUP 2: $0.6952 - Low Dec 20

*SUP 3: $0.6899 - Low Dec 12

*SUP 4: $0.6815 - Monthly Low Dec 1

*COMMENTARY: Immediate bearish focus remains on the $0.6952 support from Dec 20.

The Bollinger base ($0.6928) and O/S studies remain the key issues for bears.

Bears look for a close below $0.6952 to initially target $0.6779 Nov lows.

Layers of resistance remain with bulls now needing a close above $0.7040 to gain

breathing room and above $0.7103 to initially target a correction back to

$0.7157-0.7198 with the 200-DMA at $0.7167.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: NZ$1.0803 - 55-WMA

*RES 3: NZ$1.0782 - 21-WMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.0762 - High Mar 22

*RES 1: NZ$1.0729 - High Apr 26

*PRICE: NZ$1.0710 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0663 - 55-DMA

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0601 - High Apr 17 now support

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0549 - Low Apr 16

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0486 - 2018 Low Apr 12

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation is less than ideal for bulls with daily studies

correcting from O/B seen weighing. Bears continue to look for a close below the

55-DMA to gain breathing room and below NZ$1.0601 to shift focus back to

NZ$1.0446-86 where bull and bear channel bases & 2018 lows are noted. While the

55-DMA supports bulls hold the advantage with focus currently on

NZ$1.0780-1.0894 where key DMAs, WMAs and the bear channel top are situated.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Below Y81.90 To Target 2018 Low

*RES 4: Y83.59 - Hourly support Apr 18 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y83.15 - High Apr 20 

*RES 2: Y82.73 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: Y82.53 - High May 1

*PRICE: Y82.30 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y82.12 - Daily Bull channel base

*SUP 2: Y81.87 - Low Apr 6

*SUP 3: Y81.26 - Low Apr 4

*SUP 4: Y80.77 - Low Mar 28

*COMMENTARY: The 55-DMA (Y82.70) capped last week and pressure on Y82.37 has

resulted in a close below Monday and bears now looking for a close below Y81.90

to shift focus back to 2018 lows. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to

ease bearish pressure and shift focus back to Y83.94-84.06. Daily studies

lingering at modestly O/S levels are seen as the key concern for bears.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Focus Shifts To A$1.5771-1.5897

*RES 4: A$1.6140 - High Apr 25

*RES 3: A$1.6095 - Bollinger band top

*RES 2: A$1.6056 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance, High Apr 30

*RES 1: A$1.5974 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: A$1.5944 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5897 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: A$1.5851 - Daily Bull channel base off 2018 Low 

*SUP 3: A$1.5843 - Low Apr 19 

*SUP 4: A$1.5771 - Monthly Low Apr 13

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around the Bolli top saw pressure on A$1.5961 to start

the new week with the close below Wednesday seeing focus back on A$1.5771-1.5897

where the bull channel base off 2018 lows and 55-DMA are situated. Bears now

need a close below A$1.5771 to shift focus to A$1.5598-1.5687 where the 100-DMA

is found. Bulls now look for a close above A$1.6056 to gain breathing room and

above A$1.6191 to target A$1.6250 2016 highs.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Immediate Focus On 55-WMA

*RES 4: 94.219 - Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 3: 93.287 - 55-WMA 

*RES 2: 93.035 - Low Dec 5 now resistance 

*RES 1: 92.834 - 2018 High May 2

*PRICE: 92.720 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 92.223 - Low May 2

*SUP 2: 91.972 - 200-DMA

*SUP 3: 91.426 - Hourly support Apr 26

*SUP 4: 91.320 - Hourly resistance Apr 26 now support

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 200-DMA took its toll with an aggressive rally that

sees immediate focus on 93.035-287 where the 55-WMA is situated. O/B studies

remain the key concern for bulls as layers of support accumulate. Bears now need

a close below the 200-DMA to gain breathing room and below 91.426 to shift focus

back to 90.101-615 where 21, 55 & 100-DMAs are located.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.2053

*RES 4: $1.2227 100-DMA

*RES 3: $1.2144 Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2053 Low Apr 27 now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2032 High May 2

*PRICE: $1.1948 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1914 2018 Low Jan 19 

*SUP 2: $1.1815 Low Dec 22

*SUP 3: $1.1806 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: $1.1716 Monthly Low Feb 12

*COMMENTARY: The close below the 200-DMA ($1.2015), the first since April 2017

added weight to the bearish case with immediate focus on $1.1914 2018 lows and

overall focus now on $1.1806-15 where the 55-WMA is noted. O/S studies looking

to correct remain the key concern for bears. Bulls still need a close above

$1.2053 to gain breathing room and above $1.2144 to shift initial focus to key

DMAs $1.2225-86.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Immediate Focus On Y110.22-49

*RES 4: Y111.48 High Jan 18 

*RES 3: Y110.75 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: Y110.49 55-WMA 

*RES 1: Y110.22 200-DMA

*PRICE: Y109.82 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.48 100-WMA 

*SUP 2: Y108.97 Hourly support Apr 25 

*SUP 3: Y108.54 Hourly support Apr 23 

*SUP 4: Y108.27 Hourly resistance Apr 23 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the closes above the 100-WMA with immediate

bullish focus on Y110.22-49 where the 200-DMA and 55-WMA are located. Bulls need

a close above the 55-WMA to initially target Y111.48-98. O/B studies remain the

key concern for bulls. Bears still need a close below the 100-WMA to gain

breathing room and hint at a correction back to Y108.54-97 where the 100-DMA

(Y108.76) is found.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Below Y131.05 Initially Targets Y128.94-130.43

*RES 4: Y133.26 Bollinger band top

*RES 3: Y132.54 High Apr 30

*RES 2: Y132.23 Hourly resistance Apr 30

*RES 1: Y131.48 55-DMA

*PRICE: Y131.25 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.05 Low Apr 5 

*SUP 2: Y130.42 55-WMA 

*SUP 3: Y129.27 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23

*COMMENTARY: The close below the 55-DMA adds weight to the bearish case with a

close below Y131.05 now needed to confirm traction below the 55-DMA and to shift

focus to Y128.94-130.43 where 55 & 200-WMAs are noted. Daily studies approaching

O/S are the key concern for bears. The 55-DMA is now initial resistance but

bulls need a close above Y132.23 to gain breathing room and above Y134.16 to

confirm focus on 2018 highs.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Now Need Close Above $1316.3

*RES 4: $1332.6 - High Apr 24 

*RES 3: $1331.4 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $1326.6 - High Apr 16 

*RES 1: $1316.3 - High May 1

*PRICE: $1304.9 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1301.5 - 2018 Low May 1 

*SUP 2: $1291.6 - 55-WMA 

*SUP 3: $1289.5 - High Dec 1 now 

*SUP 4: $1277.2 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 5 month lows see gold flirting with the 200-DMA

($1304.2) and focus now on the 55-WMA. Bears look for a close below the 55-WMA

to add weight to the case for a test of the 200-WMA ($1234.6) and Dec low

($1235.9). Bulls now need a close above $1316.3 to gain breathing room and hint

at a correction back to $1326.6-1332.6 where the 55 & 21-DMAs are noted.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: $69.55 - 2018 High Apr 19 

*RES 3: $69.34 - High Apr 30 

*RES 2: $68.90 - High May 1 

*RES 1: $68.14 - High May 2

*PRICE: $67.68 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $66.71 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $65.09 - Low Apr 11 

*SUP 3: $64.10 - High Apr 5 now support 

*SUP 4: $63.75 - Low Apr 11

*COMMENTARY: The rejections ahead of 2018 highs are a concern for bulls when

combined with daily studies correcting from O/B and the proximity of the

Bollinger top. Bears now look for a close below the 21-DMA to add weight to the

case for a correction back to $63.75-64.10 where the 55-DMA ($63.92) is noted.

Bulls continue to look for a close above $69.55 to reconfirm focus on

$71.37-73.25 where the MT bull channel top is situated.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]