-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI PodcastsFixed IncomeFI Markets AnalysisCentral Bank PreviewsFI PiFixed Income Technical AnalysisUS$ Credit Supply PipelineGilt Week AheadGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance CalendarsEZ/UK Bond Auction CalendarEZ/UK T-bill Auction CalendarUS Treasury Auction CalendarPolitical RiskMNI Political Risk AnalysisMNI Political Risk - US Daily BriefMNI Political Risk - The week AheadElection Previews -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
Commodities
Real-time insight of oil & gas markets
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
Global Macro
Global Macro
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
Global MacroDM Central Bank PreviewsDM Central Bank ReviewsEM Central Bank PreviewsEM Central Bank ReviewsBalance Sheet AnalysisData AnalysisEurozone DataUK DataUS DataAPAC DataInflation InsightEmployment InsightGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance Calendars EZ/UK Bond Auction Calendar EZ/UK T-bill Auction Calendar US Treasury Auction Calendar Chart Packs -
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis
3 May 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc
AUSSIE TECHS: O/S Daily Studies Key Concern For Bears
*RES 4: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23
*RES 3: $0.7620 - High Apr 24
*RES 2: $0.7590 - Hourly resistance Apr 25
*RES 1: $0.7546 - High May 1
*PRICE: $0.7488 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7470 - 2018 Low May 1
*SUP 2: $0.7368 - Monthly Low June 1 2017
*SUP 3: $0.7326 - Monthly Low May 9 2017
*SUP 4: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & nearly 12 month lows following the close below $0.7498
leaves the pair looking heavy and bears focused on $0.7326. Bears now look for a
close below this level to then target $0.7142 Dec 2016 monthly lows. O/S studies
remain the key concern for bears. Bulls now need a close above $0.7546 to gain
breathing room and above $0.7590 to initially pressure the $0.7648 resistance
level with the 21-DMA ($0.7654) lurking above.
KIWI TECHS: Immediate Focus On $0.6952
*RES 4: $0.7157 - High Apr 24
*RES 3: $0.7132 - Hourly resistance Apr 24
*RES 2: $0.7102 - Hourly support Apr 25 now resistance
*RES 1: $0.7040 - High May 1
*PRICE: $0.6996 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $0.6988 - 2018 Low May 1
*SUP 2: $0.6952 - Low Dec 20
*SUP 3: $0.6899 - Low Dec 12
*SUP 4: $0.6815 - Monthly Low Dec 1
*COMMENTARY: Immediate bearish focus remains on the $0.6952 support from Dec 20.
The Bollinger base ($0.6928) and O/S studies remain the key issues for bears.
Bears look for a close below $0.6952 to initially target $0.6779 Nov lows.
Layers of resistance remain with bulls now needing a close above $0.7040 to gain
breathing room and above $0.7103 to initially target a correction back to
$0.7157-0.7198 with the 200-DMA at $0.7167.
AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA
*RES 4: NZ$1.0803 - 55-WMA
*RES 3: NZ$1.0782 - 21-WMA
*RES 2: NZ$1.0762 - High Mar 22
*RES 1: NZ$1.0729 - High Apr 26
*PRICE: NZ$1.0710 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: NZ$1.0663 - 55-DMA
*SUP 2: NZ$1.0601 - High Apr 17 now support
*SUP 3: NZ$1.0549 - Low Apr 16
*SUP 4: NZ$1.0486 - 2018 Low Apr 12
*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation is less than ideal for bulls with daily studies
correcting from O/B seen weighing. Bears continue to look for a close below the
55-DMA to gain breathing room and below NZ$1.0601 to shift focus back to
NZ$1.0446-86 where bull and bear channel bases & 2018 lows are noted. While the
55-DMA supports bulls hold the advantage with focus currently on
NZ$1.0780-1.0894 where key DMAs, WMAs and the bear channel top are situated.
AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Below Y81.90 To Target 2018 Low
*RES 4: Y83.59 - Hourly support Apr 18 now resistance
*RES 3: Y83.15 - High Apr 20
*RES 2: Y82.73 - 21-DMA
*RES 1: Y82.53 - High May 1
*PRICE: Y82.30 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: Y82.12 - Daily Bull channel base
*SUP 2: Y81.87 - Low Apr 6
*SUP 3: Y81.26 - Low Apr 4
*SUP 4: Y80.77 - Low Mar 28
*COMMENTARY: The 55-DMA (Y82.70) capped last week and pressure on Y82.37 has
resulted in a close below Monday and bears now looking for a close below Y81.90
to shift focus back to 2018 lows. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to
ease bearish pressure and shift focus back to Y83.94-84.06. Daily studies
lingering at modestly O/S levels are seen as the key concern for bears.
EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Focus Shifts To A$1.5771-1.5897
*RES 4: A$1.6140 - High Apr 25
*RES 3: A$1.6095 - Bollinger band top
*RES 2: A$1.6056 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance, High Apr 30
*RES 1: A$1.5974 - 21-DMA
*PRICE: A$1.5944 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: A$1.5897 - 55-DMA
*SUP 2: A$1.5851 - Daily Bull channel base off 2018 Low
*SUP 3: A$1.5843 - Low Apr 19
*SUP 4: A$1.5771 - Monthly Low Apr 13
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around the Bolli top saw pressure on A$1.5961 to start
the new week with the close below Wednesday seeing focus back on A$1.5771-1.5897
where the bull channel base off 2018 lows and 55-DMA are situated. Bears now
need a close below A$1.5771 to shift focus to A$1.5598-1.5687 where the 100-DMA
is found. Bulls now look for a close above A$1.6056 to gain breathing room and
above A$1.6191 to target A$1.6250 2016 highs.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Immediate Focus On 55-WMA
*RES 4: 94.219 - Monthly High Dec 12
*RES 3: 93.287 - 55-WMA
*RES 2: 93.035 - Low Dec 5 now resistance
*RES 1: 92.834 - 2018 High May 2
*PRICE: 92.720 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 92.223 - Low May 2
*SUP 2: 91.972 - 200-DMA
*SUP 3: 91.426 - Hourly support Apr 26
*SUP 4: 91.320 - Hourly resistance Apr 26 now support
*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 200-DMA took its toll with an aggressive rally that
sees immediate focus on 93.035-287 where the 55-WMA is situated. O/B studies
remain the key concern for bulls as layers of support accumulate. Bears now need
a close below the 200-DMA to gain breathing room and below 91.426 to shift focus
back to 90.101-615 where 21, 55 & 100-DMAs are located.
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.2053
*RES 4: $1.2227 100-DMA
*RES 3: $1.2144 Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance
*RES 2: $1.2053 Low Apr 27 now resistance
*RES 1: $1.2032 High May 2
*PRICE: $1.1948 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1914 2018 Low Jan 19
*SUP 2: $1.1815 Low Dec 22
*SUP 3: $1.1806 55-WMA
*SUP 4: $1.1716 Monthly Low Feb 12
*COMMENTARY: The close below the 200-DMA ($1.2015), the first since April 2017
added weight to the bearish case with immediate focus on $1.1914 2018 lows and
overall focus now on $1.1806-15 where the 55-WMA is noted. O/S studies looking
to correct remain the key concern for bears. Bulls still need a close above
$1.2053 to gain breathing room and above $1.2144 to shift initial focus to key
DMAs $1.2225-86.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Immediate Focus On Y110.22-49
*RES 4: Y111.48 High Jan 18
*RES 3: Y110.75 Daily Bull channel top
*RES 2: Y110.49 55-WMA
*RES 1: Y110.22 200-DMA
*PRICE: Y109.82 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: Y109.48 100-WMA
*SUP 2: Y108.97 Hourly support Apr 25
*SUP 3: Y108.54 Hourly support Apr 23
*SUP 4: Y108.27 Hourly resistance Apr 23 now support
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the closes above the 100-WMA with immediate
bullish focus on Y110.22-49 where the 200-DMA and 55-WMA are located. Bulls need
a close above the 55-WMA to initially target Y111.48-98. O/B studies remain the
key concern for bulls. Bears still need a close below the 100-WMA to gain
breathing room and hint at a correction back to Y108.54-97 where the 100-DMA
(Y108.76) is found.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Below Y131.05 Initially Targets Y128.94-130.43
*RES 4: Y133.26 Bollinger band top
*RES 3: Y132.54 High Apr 30
*RES 2: Y132.23 Hourly resistance Apr 30
*RES 1: Y131.48 55-DMA
*PRICE: Y131.25 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: Y131.05 Low Apr 5
*SUP 2: Y130.42 55-WMA
*SUP 3: Y129.27 200-WMA
*SUP 4: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23
*COMMENTARY: The close below the 55-DMA adds weight to the bearish case with a
close below Y131.05 now needed to confirm traction below the 55-DMA and to shift
focus to Y128.94-130.43 where 55 & 200-WMAs are noted. Daily studies approaching
O/S are the key concern for bears. The 55-DMA is now initial resistance but
bulls need a close above Y132.23 to gain breathing room and above Y134.16 to
confirm focus on 2018 highs.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Now Need Close Above $1316.3
*RES 4: $1332.6 - High Apr 24
*RES 3: $1331.4 - 21-DMA
*RES 2: $1326.6 - High Apr 16
*RES 1: $1316.3 - High May 1
*PRICE: $1304.9 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $1301.5 - 2018 Low May 1
*SUP 2: $1291.6 - 55-WMA
*SUP 3: $1289.5 - High Dec 1 now
*SUP 4: $1277.2 - 100-WMA
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 5 month lows see gold flirting with the 200-DMA
($1304.2) and focus now on the 55-WMA. Bears look for a close below the 55-WMA
to add weight to the case for a test of the 200-WMA ($1234.6) and Dec low
($1235.9). Bulls now need a close above $1316.3 to gain breathing room and hint
at a correction back to $1326.6-1332.6 where the 55 & 21-DMAs are noted.
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA
*RES 4: $69.55 - 2018 High Apr 19
*RES 3: $69.34 - High Apr 30
*RES 2: $68.90 - High May 1
*RES 1: $68.14 - High May 2
*PRICE: $67.68 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $66.71 - 21-DMA
*SUP 2: $65.09 - Low Apr 11
*SUP 3: $64.10 - High Apr 5 now support
*SUP 4: $63.75 - Low Apr 11
*COMMENTARY: The rejections ahead of 2018 highs are a concern for bulls when
combined with daily studies correcting from O/B and the proximity of the
Bollinger top. Bears now look for a close below the 21-DMA to add weight to the
case for a correction back to $63.75-64.10 where the 55-DMA ($63.92) is noted.
Bulls continue to look for a close above $69.55 to reconfirm focus on
$71.37-73.25 where the MT bull channel top is situated.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.