MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

4 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.7546

*RES 4: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23

*RES 3: $0.7620 - High Apr 24

*RES 2: $0.7590 - Hourly resistance Apr 25

*RES 1: $0.7546 - High May 1

*PRICE: $0.7531 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7470 - 2018 Low May 1 

*SUP 2: $0.7368 - Monthly Low June 1 2017 

*SUP 3: $0.7326 - Monthly Low May 9 2017 

*SUP 4: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017

*COMMENTARY: Recent 2018 & nearly 12 month lows following the close below

$0.7498 left the pair looking heavy and bears focused on $0.7326. Bears now look

for a close below this level to then target $0.7142 Dec 2016 monthly lows. O/S

studies have provided the impetus for a bounce. Bulls now need a close above

$0.7546 to gain breathing room and above $0.7590 to initially pressure the

$0.7648 resistance level where the 21-DMA is located.

     KIWI TECHS: Correcting O/S Studies Impacting

*RES 4: $0.7165 - 200-DMA 

*RES 3: $0.7157 - High Apr 24 

*RES 2: $0.7132 - Hourly resistance Apr 24 

*RES 1: $0.7102 - Hourly support Apr 25 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7040 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6983 - 2018 Low May 2

*SUP 2: $0.6952 - Low Dec 20

*SUP 3: $0.6899 - Low Dec 12

*SUP 4: $0.6815 - Monthly Low Dec 1

*COMMENTARY: Correcting O/S studies appear to be impacting with a bounce from

ahead of the 2018 low and relatively bullish close. Bulls now need a close above

$0.7103 to initially target a correction back to $0.7157-0.7198 with the 200-DMA

at $0.7165. Bears now look for a close below $0.6983 to reconfirm immediate

focus on $0.6952 and the close below needed to initially target $0.6779 Nov

lows.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: NZ$1.0803 - 55-WMA

*RES 3: NZ$1.0781 - 21-WMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.0762 - High Mar 22

*RES 1: NZ$1.0731 - High May 3

*PRICE: NZ$1.0691 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0662 - 55-DMA

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0601 - High Apr 17 now support

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0549 - Low Apr 16

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0486 - 2018 Low Apr 12

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation is less than ideal for bulls with daily studies

correcting from O/B seen weighing. Bears continue to look for a close below the

55-DMA to gain breathing room and below NZ$1.0601 to shift focus back to

NZ$1.0446-86 where bull and bear channel bases & 2018 lows are noted. While the

55-DMA supports bulls hold the advantage with focus currently on

NZ$1.0780-1.0894 where key DMAs, WMAs and the bear channel top are situated.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: 21-DMA Remains Key Resistance

*RES 4: Y83.59 - Hourly support Apr 18 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y83.15 - High Apr 20 

*RES 2: Y82.71 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: Y82.53 - High May 1

*PRICE: Y82.22 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y81.86 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 2: Y81.75 - Low May 3

*SUP 3: Y81.26 - Low Apr 4

*SUP 4: Y80.77 - Low Mar 28

*COMMENTARY: The 55-DMA (Y82.66) capped last week and pressure on Y82.37 has

resulted in a close below Monday. Bears have so far failed to capitalise on

Thursday's dip below Y81.90 with the Bollinger base and modestly O/S daily

studies impacting. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish

pressure and shift focus back to Y83.94-84.06.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Flirting With 55-DMA

*RES 4: A$1.6140 - High Apr 25

*RES 3: A$1.6096 - Bollinger band top

*RES 2: A$1.6056 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance, High Apr 30

*RES 1: A$1.5972 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: A$1.5916 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5901 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: A$1.5859 - Daily Bull channel base off 2018 Low 

*SUP 3: A$1.5843 - Low Apr 19 

*SUP 4: A$1.5771 - Monthly Low Apr 13

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around the Bollinger band top saw pressure back on

A$1.5961 to start the new week with the close below Wednesday seeing focus back

on A$1.5771-1.5901 where the bull channel base off 2018 lows and 55-DMA are

situated. Bears now need a close below A$1.5771 to shift focus to

A$1.5598-1.5692 where the 100-DMA is found. Bulls look for a close above the

21-DMA to gain breathing room and above A$1.6056 to target A$1.6140-92.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 200-DMA

*RES 4: 94.219 - Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 3: 93.281 - 55-WMA 

*RES 2: 93.035 - Low Dec 5 now resistance 

*RES 1: 92.834 - 2018 High May 2

*PRICE: 92.421 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 92.223 - Low May 2

*SUP 2: 91.967 - 200-DMA

*SUP 3: 91.426 - Hourly support Apr 26

*SUP 4: 91.320 - Hourly resistance Apr 26 now support

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 200-DMA took its toll with an aggressive rally that

sees immediate focus on 93.035-281 where the 55-WMA is situated. O/B studies and

daily momentum divergence remain the key concern for bulls. In saying that,

bears still need a close below the 200-DMA to gain breathing room and below

91.426 to shift focus back to 90.167-626 where 21, 55 & 100-DMAs are located.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2053 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: $1.2230 100-DMA

*RES 3: $1.2144 Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2053 Low Apr 27 now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2032 High May 2

*PRICE: $1.1988 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1914 2018 Low Jan 19 

*SUP 2: $1.1815 Low Dec 22 

*SUP 3: $1.1807 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: $1.1716 Monthly Low Feb 12

*COMMENTARY: The close below the 200-DMA Tuesday ($1.2016), the first since

April 2017 added weight to the bearish case with immediate focus on $1.1914 2018

lows and overall focus now on $1.1807-15 where the 55-WMA is noted. O/S studies

looking to correct remain the key concern for bears. Bulls still need a close

above $1.2053 to gain breathing room and above $1.2144 to shift initial focus to

key DMAs $1.2230-87.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y108.54 & Y109.54 Levels Key Today

*RES 4: Y110.89 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: Y110.48 55-WMA 

*RES 2: Y110.20 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Y109.54 Alternating daily support/resistance

*PRICE: Y109.18 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.92 Low May 3 

*SUP 2: Y108.71 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y108.54 Hourly support Apr 23 

*SUP 4: Y108.27 Hourly resistance Apr 23 now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 200-DMA combined with daily studies

correcting from O/B is a concern for bulls and currently weighs. Bears now look

for a close below Y108.54 to shift initial focus back to Y107.85 whereas below

Y106.57 is needed to see bears targeting 2018 lows. Bulls now need a close above

Y109.54 to gain breathing room and above the 55-WMA to initially target

Y111.48-98.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Now Targeting Y128.94-130.43

*RES 4: Y133.36 Bollinger band top

*RES 3: Y132.54 High Apr 30

*RES 2: Y132.13 21-DMA

*RES 1: Y131.19 Hourly support May 3 now resistance

*PRICE: Y130.89 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.42 55-WMA 

*SUP 2: Y129.27 200-WMA 

*SUP 3: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23 

*SUP 4: Y127.54 Monthly Low Aug 18

*COMMENTARY: The close below the 55-DMA added weight to the bearish case with a

close below Y131.05 confirming traction below the 55-DMA and shifting focus to

Y128.94-130.42 where 55 & 200-WMAs are noted. Daily studies approaching O/S are

the key concern for bears. Y131.19 is now initial resistance with bulls needing

a close above to gain breathing room and hint at a correction back to Y132.13-54

where the 21 & 200-DMAs are located.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Hesitating Around 200-DMA

*RES 4: $1332.6 - High Apr 24 

*RES 3: $1330.4 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $1326.6 - High Apr 16 

*RES 1: $1322.6 - 100-DMA

*PRICE: $1311.2 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1301.5 - 2018 Low May 1 

*SUP 2: $1291.6 - 55-WMA 

*SUP 3: $1289.5 - High Dec 1 now support 

*SUP 4: $1277.3 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Recent 2018 & 5 month lows saw gold flirting with the 200-DMA

($1304.5) and focus now on $1289.5-1301.5 where the 55-DMA is noted. Bears look

for a close below $1289.5 to add weight to the case for a test of the 200-WMA

($1234.6) and Dec low ($1235.9). The $1332.6 resistance is now key. Bulls need a

close above this level to shift focus back to $1355.7-1366.1 where 2018 highs

are found.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: $70.63 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: $69.55 - 2018 High Apr 19 

*RES 2: $69.34 - High Apr 30 

*RES 1: $68.90 - High May 1

*PRICE: $68.43 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $67.69 - Hourly resistance May 3 now support 

*SUP 2: $66.97 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $65.09 - Low Apr 11 

*SUP 4: $64.10 - High Apr 5 now support

*COMMENTARY: The rejections ahead of 2018 highs are a concern for bulls when

combined with daily studies correcting from O/B and the proximity of the

Bollinger top. Bears look for a close below the 21-DMA to add weight to the case

for a correction back to $61.86-64.11 where the 55-DMA ($64.11) is noted. Bulls

continue to look for a close above $69.55 to reconfirm focus on $71.46-73.25

where the MT bull channel top is situated.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]