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MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

29 May 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc
AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7520 Support Remains Key
*RES 4: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23
*RES 3: $0.7631 - 55-DMA
*RES 2: $0.7620 - High Apr 24
*RES 1: $0.7590- High May 25
*PRICE: $0.7544 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7520 - Low May 23 
*SUP 2: $0.7486 - Low May 18 
*SUP 3: $0.7445 - Low May 15 
*SUP 4: $0.7410 - 2018 Low May 9
*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA ($0.7524) supports as narrow sideways trading continues.
Bears look for a close below $0.7520 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and below
$0.7410 to reconfirm the bearish bias and target $0.7326-68 where May & June 17
lows are noted. Layers of resistance remain $0.7620-61 with bulls needing a
close above the falling TL ($0.7655) to end bearish hopes and shift focus to
$0.7735-0.7842.
     KIWI TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.6996
*RES 4: $0.7102 - Hourly support Apr 25 now resistance 
*RES 3: $0.7052 - High May 4 
*RES 2: $0.6996 - High May 9 
*RES 1: $0.6959 - High May 28
*PRICE: $0.6941 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $0.6903 - Low May 25
*SUP 2: $0.6882 - Low May 23
*SUP 3: $0.6849 - 2018 Low May 16
*SUP 4: $0.6815 - Monthly Low Dec 1
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows struggled last week with the pair
lacking follow through above $0.6952 and capped ahead of the 21-DMA. Bulls
continue to look for a close above $0.6996 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA
($0.6948) and shift initial focus to $0.7052. Momentum studies are back at
neutral levels and well placed for a fresh leg lower. Bears currently focus on
tests of Nov & Dec lows while $0.6996 caps.
     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: NZ$1.0843 Support Now Key
*RES 4: NZ$1.1006 - Low Jan 30 now resistance
*RES 3: NZ$1.0962 - High May 25
*RES 2: NZ$1.0906 - Low May 25 now resistance
*RES 1: NZ$1.0886 - 200-DMA
*PRICE: NZ$1.0870 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: NZ$1.0843 - High May 11 now support
*SUP 2: NZ$1.0810 - 55-WMA
*SUP 3: NZ$1.0756 - 100-DMA
*SUP 4: NZ$1.0700 - 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on Friday's 3mth highs has resulted in a
sell-off Monday that sees the pair close below the 200-DMA. Bears continue to
look for a close below NZ$1.0843 to initially target the 100-DMA and then the
55-DMA below. Correcting O/B studies add weight to the case for a correction.
Bulls now need a close above NZ$1.0906 to regain the upper hand and above
NZ$1.0962 to reconfirm focus on 2018 highs.
     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Below Y82.00 To Target 2018 Low
*RES 4: Y84.04 - High May 23 
*RES 3: Y83.88 - Hourly support May 23 now resistance 
*RES 2: Y83.54 - Hourly resistance May 23 
*RES 1: Y83.16 - High May 25
*PRICE: Y82.52 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: Y82.38 - Low May 24
*SUP 2: Y82.18 - Low May 16
*SUP 3: Y82.00 - High May 9 now support
*SUP 4: Y81.13 - Low May 9
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through above the 100-DMA left the pair looking
heavy Wednesday and bears capitalised with a sell-off that has so far found
support below the 55-DMA. Correcting O/B studies are a concern for bulls. Bulls
now need a close above Y83.54 to gain breathing room and above Y84.51 to add
support to the case for a test of 200-DMA & WMAs. The Y82.00 support is key this
week. Bears need a close below to target 2018 lows.
     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Immediate Focus On 55-WMA
*RES 4: A$1.5651 - Low May 19 now resistance
*RES 3: A$1.5618 - High May 23
*RES 2: A$1.5526 - High May 24
*RES 1: A$1.5495 - High May 28
*PRICE: A$1.5401 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: A$1.5368 - Low May 28 
*SUP 2: A$1.5327 - 55-WMA 
*SUP 3: A$1.5256 - Low Jan 29 
*SUP 4: A$1.5152 - 2018 Low Jan 11
*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the closes below the 200-DMA with immediate
focus on the 55-WMA. Bears continue to look for a close below the 55-WMA to
confirm focus on tests of 2018 lows with a overall focus shifting to 100
(A$1.4908) & 200 (A$1.4866) WMAs. Bulls still need a close above A$1.5526 to
gain breathing room and above A$1.5651 to shift initial focus to 21 & 100-DMAs
A$1.5717-1.5750.
     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Focused On 94.650-95.167
*RES 4: 95.733 - Daily Bull channel top 
*RES 3: 95.167 - Monthly High Oct 27 
*RES 2: 94.650 - High Nov 10 now support 
*RES 1: 94.465 - Bollinger band top
*PRICE: 94.419 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 94.298 - High May 25 now support
*SUP 2: 93.841 - Daily Bull channel base
*SUP 3: 93.611 - Low May 24
*SUP 4: 93.291 - Low May 22
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 highs continue to start the new week with focus on the
94.650-95.167 resistance region this week. The Bollinger band top continues to
cap and O/B studies remain a concern for bulls. In saying that, bears now need a
close below 93.611 to gain breathing room and below 92.841 to shift initial
focus back to 91.966-92.223 where the 200-DMA is located.
     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Immediate Focus On $1.1552
*RES 4: $1.1889 Alternating daily support/resistance
*RES 3: $1.1838 High May 17
*RES 2: $1.1750 High May 24
*RES 1: $1.1643 Low May 25 now resistance
*PRICE: $1.1624 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1604 2018 Low May 28 
*SUP 2: $1.1552 Monthly Low Nov 7 
*SUP 3: $1.1477 Low July 20 
*SUP 4: $1.1431 200-WMA
*COMMENTARY: Bears retain overall focus on tests of Nov lows at $1.1552
following fresh 2018 lows again Monday. The Bollinger base & O/S studies are the
key concern with potential to limit follow through. Layers of resistance remain
adding weight to the bearish case. Bulls still need a close above $1.1750 to
ease bearish pressure and above the $1.1889 to shift initial focus to
$1.2017-1.2053 where the 200-DMA is noted.
     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: 21-DMA Continues To Cap
*RES 4: Y111.18 High May 22 
*RES 3: Y110.72 Hourly support May 22 now resistance 
*RES 2: Y110.20 200-DMA 
*RES 1: Y109.81 21-DMA
*PRICE: Y109.40 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: Y108.94 Low May 24 
*SUP 2: Y108.53 Low Apr 24 
*SUP 3: Y108.20 100-DMA 
*SUP 4: Y108.06 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Losses defined last week adding weight to the case for a correction
back to Y107.85-108.53 where the 21-WMA (Y108.14) and 55 & 100-DMAs (Y108.06-20)
are situated. Bears continue to look for a close below Y107.85 to confirm breaks
of 55 & 100-DMAs and shift initial focus to Y106.57. Bulls need a close above
the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and above Y110.72 to shift initial focus back
to Y111.39-98.
     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y125.80 Level Remains Pivotal LT
*RES 4: Y129.51 Low May 16 now resistance
*RES 3: Y129.09 200-WMA
*RES 2: Y128.94 Low Mar 23 now resistance
*RES 1: Y128.53 High May 28
*PRICE: Y127.18 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: Y126.85 2018 Monthly Low May 28 
*SUP 2: Y125.80 Monthly Highs May 16 & 25 now support 
*SUP 3: Y125.15 100-WMA 
*SUP 4: Y125.03 Daily Bear channel base
*COMMENTARY: Failures around 21 & 55-DMAs left the pair looking heavy last week
with fresh 2018 lows continuing Monday. The Y125.80 weekly support remains
pivotal. Bears look for a close below to shift immediate focus to the bull
channel base (Y122.37) and hint at a move to Y114.82-117.05 where the bull
channel base off 2012 lows is noted. Bulls now need a close above the 200-WMA to
gain breathing room and above Y130.22 to shift initial focus back to Y131.37.
     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Dominate While $1310.5 Caps
*RES 4: $1326.0 - 100-DMA 
*RES 3: $1321.4 - 55-DMA 
*RES 2: $1310.5 - Low May 10 now resistance 
*RES 1: $1307.2 - 200-DMA
*PRICE: $1297.7 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $1287.4 - Low May 22 
*SUP 2: $1281.8 - 2018 Low May 21 
*SUP 3: $1282.9 - Bollinger band base 
*SUP 4: $1277.1 - 100-WMA
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on recent 2018 lows combined with O/S
studies provided the impetus for a bounce that saw gold pressuring the 200-DMA.
Bulls need a close above $1310.5 to confirm breaks of 21 & 200-DMAs and shift
initial focus to $1321.4-1326.6 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. Bears now need a
close below the 100-WMA to target the 200-WMA ($1234.3).
     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (N18) Focus On $63.87-65.38
*RES 4: $69.57 - Hourly resistance May 25 
*RES 3: $68.30 - Hourly support May 25 now resistance 
*RES 2: $67.96 - Hourly resistance May 25 
*RES 1: $67.04 - Hourly resistance May 28
*PRICE: $66.63 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $65.80 - Low May 28 
*SUP 2: $65.38 - Low Apr 17 
*SUP 3: $64.48 - 100-DMA 
*SUP 4: $63.87 - High Apr 5
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around the daily bull channel top provided the impetus
for an aggressive break of $70.24 Friday. Focus has shifted to the $63.87-65.38
support region with the contract flirting with the 55-DMA. Bears now look for a
close below $63.87 to confirm a break of the 100-DMA and initially target $61.73
Apr lows. Bulls now need a close above $67.04 to gain breathing room and above
$68.30 to shift focus back to the 21-DMA ($70.11).
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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