MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

29 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7520 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: $0.7648 - Hourly resistance Apr 23

*RES 3: $0.7631 - 55-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7620 - High Apr 24

*RES 1: $0.7590- High May 25

*PRICE: $0.7544 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7520 - Low May 23 

*SUP 2: $0.7486 - Low May 18 

*SUP 3: $0.7445 - Low May 15 

*SUP 4: $0.7410 - 2018 Low May 9

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA ($0.7524) supports as narrow sideways trading continues.

Bears look for a close below $0.7520 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and below

$0.7410 to reconfirm the bearish bias and target $0.7326-68 where May & June 17

lows are noted. Layers of resistance remain $0.7620-61 with bulls needing a

close above the falling TL ($0.7655) to end bearish hopes and shift focus to

$0.7735-0.7842.

     KIWI TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.6996

*RES 4: $0.7102 - Hourly support Apr 25 now resistance 

*RES 3: $0.7052 - High May 4 

*RES 2: $0.6996 - High May 9 

*RES 1: $0.6959 - High May 28

*PRICE: $0.6941 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6903 - Low May 25

*SUP 2: $0.6882 - Low May 23

*SUP 3: $0.6849 - 2018 Low May 16

*SUP 4: $0.6815 - Monthly Low Dec 1

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows struggled last week with the pair

lacking follow through above $0.6952 and capped ahead of the 21-DMA. Bulls

continue to look for a close above $0.6996 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA

($0.6948) and shift initial focus to $0.7052. Momentum studies are back at

neutral levels and well placed for a fresh leg lower. Bears currently focus on

tests of Nov & Dec lows while $0.6996 caps.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: NZ$1.0843 Support Now Key

*RES 4: NZ$1.1006 - Low Jan 30 now resistance

*RES 3: NZ$1.0962 - High May 25

*RES 2: NZ$1.0906 - Low May 25 now resistance

*RES 1: NZ$1.0886 - 200-DMA

*PRICE: NZ$1.0870 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0843 - High May 11 now support

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0810 - 55-WMA

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0756 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0700 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on Friday's 3mth highs has resulted in a

sell-off Monday that sees the pair close below the 200-DMA. Bears continue to

look for a close below NZ$1.0843 to initially target the 100-DMA and then the

55-DMA below. Correcting O/B studies add weight to the case for a correction.

Bulls now need a close above NZ$1.0906 to regain the upper hand and above

NZ$1.0962 to reconfirm focus on 2018 highs.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Below Y82.00 To Target 2018 Low

*RES 4: Y84.04 - High May 23 

*RES 3: Y83.88 - Hourly support May 23 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y83.54 - Hourly resistance May 23 

*RES 1: Y83.16 - High May 25

*PRICE: Y82.52 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y82.38 - Low May 24

*SUP 2: Y82.18 - Low May 16

*SUP 3: Y82.00 - High May 9 now support

*SUP 4: Y81.13 - Low May 9

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through above the 100-DMA left the pair looking

heavy Wednesday and bears capitalised with a sell-off that has so far found

support below the 55-DMA. Correcting O/B studies are a concern for bulls. Bulls

now need a close above Y83.54 to gain breathing room and above Y84.51 to add

support to the case for a test of 200-DMA & WMAs. The Y82.00 support is key this

week. Bears need a close below to target 2018 lows.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Immediate Focus On 55-WMA

*RES 4: A$1.5651 - Low May 19 now resistance

*RES 3: A$1.5618 - High May 23

*RES 2: A$1.5526 - High May 24

*RES 1: A$1.5495 - High May 28

*PRICE: A$1.5401 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5368 - Low May 28 

*SUP 2: A$1.5327 - 55-WMA 

*SUP 3: A$1.5256 - Low Jan 29 

*SUP 4: A$1.5152 - 2018 Low Jan 11

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the closes below the 200-DMA with immediate

focus on the 55-WMA. Bears continue to look for a close below the 55-WMA to

confirm focus on tests of 2018 lows with a overall focus shifting to 100

(A$1.4908) & 200 (A$1.4866) WMAs. Bulls still need a close above A$1.5526 to

gain breathing room and above A$1.5651 to shift initial focus to 21 & 100-DMAs

A$1.5717-1.5750.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Focused On 94.650-95.167

*RES 4: 95.733 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 95.167 - Monthly High Oct 27 

*RES 2: 94.650 - High Nov 10 now support 

*RES 1: 94.465 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: 94.419 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 94.298 - High May 25 now support

*SUP 2: 93.841 - Daily Bull channel base

*SUP 3: 93.611 - Low May 24

*SUP 4: 93.291 - Low May 22

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 highs continue to start the new week with focus on the

94.650-95.167 resistance region this week. The Bollinger band top continues to

cap and O/B studies remain a concern for bulls. In saying that, bears now need a

close below 93.611 to gain breathing room and below 92.841 to shift initial

focus back to 91.966-92.223 where the 200-DMA is located.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Immediate Focus On $1.1552

*RES 4: $1.1889 Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 3: $1.1838 High May 17

*RES 2: $1.1750 High May 24

*RES 1: $1.1643 Low May 25 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1624 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1604 2018 Low May 28 

*SUP 2: $1.1552 Monthly Low Nov 7 

*SUP 3: $1.1477 Low July 20 

*SUP 4: $1.1431 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Bears retain overall focus on tests of Nov lows at $1.1552

following fresh 2018 lows again Monday. The Bollinger base & O/S studies are the

key concern with potential to limit follow through. Layers of resistance remain

adding weight to the bearish case. Bulls still need a close above $1.1750 to

ease bearish pressure and above the $1.1889 to shift initial focus to

$1.2017-1.2053 where the 200-DMA is noted.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: 21-DMA Continues To Cap

*RES 4: Y111.18 High May 22 

*RES 3: Y110.72 Hourly support May 22 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y110.20 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Y109.81 21-DMA

*PRICE: Y109.40 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.94 Low May 24 

*SUP 2: Y108.53 Low Apr 24 

*SUP 3: Y108.20 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y108.06 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Losses defined last week adding weight to the case for a correction

back to Y107.85-108.53 where the 21-WMA (Y108.14) and 55 & 100-DMAs (Y108.06-20)

are situated. Bears continue to look for a close below Y107.85 to confirm breaks

of 55 & 100-DMAs and shift initial focus to Y106.57. Bulls need a close above

the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and above Y110.72 to shift initial focus back

to Y111.39-98.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y125.80 Level Remains Pivotal LT

*RES 4: Y129.51 Low May 16 now resistance

*RES 3: Y129.09 200-WMA

*RES 2: Y128.94 Low Mar 23 now resistance

*RES 1: Y128.53 High May 28

*PRICE: Y127.18 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y126.85 2018 Monthly Low May 28 

*SUP 2: Y125.80 Monthly Highs May 16 & 25 now support 

*SUP 3: Y125.15 100-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y125.03 Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Failures around 21 & 55-DMAs left the pair looking heavy last week

with fresh 2018 lows continuing Monday. The Y125.80 weekly support remains

pivotal. Bears look for a close below to shift immediate focus to the bull

channel base (Y122.37) and hint at a move to Y114.82-117.05 where the bull

channel base off 2012 lows is noted. Bulls now need a close above the 200-WMA to

gain breathing room and above Y130.22 to shift initial focus back to Y131.37.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Dominate While $1310.5 Caps

*RES 4: $1326.0 - 100-DMA 

*RES 3: $1321.4 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: $1310.5 - Low May 10 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1307.2 - 200-DMA

*PRICE: $1297.7 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1287.4 - Low May 22 

*SUP 2: $1281.8 - 2018 Low May 21 

*SUP 3: $1282.9 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $1277.1 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on recent 2018 lows combined with O/S

studies provided the impetus for a bounce that saw gold pressuring the 200-DMA.

Bulls need a close above $1310.5 to confirm breaks of 21 & 200-DMAs and shift

initial focus to $1321.4-1326.6 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. Bears now need a

close below the 100-WMA to target the 200-WMA ($1234.3).

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (N18) Focus On $63.87-65.38

*RES 4: $69.57 - Hourly resistance May 25 

*RES 3: $68.30 - Hourly support May 25 now resistance 

*RES 2: $67.96 - Hourly resistance May 25 

*RES 1: $67.04 - Hourly resistance May 28

*PRICE: $66.63 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $65.80 - Low May 28 

*SUP 2: $65.38 - Low Apr 17 

*SUP 3: $64.48 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $63.87 - High Apr 5

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around the daily bull channel top provided the impetus

for an aggressive break of $70.24 Friday. Focus has shifted to the $63.87-65.38

support region with the contract flirting with the 55-DMA. Bears now look for a

close below $63.87 to confirm a break of the 100-DMA and initially target $61.73

Apr lows. Bulls now need a close above $67.04 to gain breathing room and above

$68.30 to shift focus back to the 21-DMA ($70.11).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]