BOSTIC: IF INFLATION REACCELERATES, HAVE TO CONSIDER HIKES

MNI BRIEF: Fed's Bostic - Rate Cut Likely At End of Year

MNI BRIEF: Fed Could Wait Until 2025 To Lower Rates - Kashkari

MNI BRIEF: Beijing Opposes U.S. Measures Against Chinese Steel

MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, April 18

MNI BRIEF: M2 Growth To Slow On Weak Demand - PBOC's Zou

MNI: FED BALANCE SHEET TOTAL ASSETS -$33B TO $7.406T IN WEEK

US Treasury Auction Calendar

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: EU, UK Synd W/C 22 Apr, BoE APF Mon

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis 

1 June 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc
AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7640 Resistance Now Key
*RES 4: $0.7639 - Falling daily TL off 2018 high
*RES 3: $0.7618 - 55-DMA
*RES 2: $0.7606 - Bollinger band top
*RES 1: $0.7593 - High May 25
*PRICE: $0.7565 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7532 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 2: $0.7474 - Low May 30 
*SUP 3: $0.7457 - Bollinger band base 
*SUP 4: $0.7445 - Low May 15
*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on the close below the 21-DMA with
Wednesday's rally and close above the 21-DMA returning focus to $0.7593-0.7640
where the 55-DMA and falling daily TL are noted. Bulls now need a close above
$0.7540 to confirm a break of the bear channel top, ending bearish hopes and
shifting focus to $0.7735-0.7842. Bears again look for a close below the 21-DMA
to gain breathing room and add weight to the case for a test of 2018 lows.
     KIWI TECHS: Topside Follow Through Lacking
*RES 4: $0.7114 - 55-DMA
*RES 3: $0.7102 - Hourly support Apr 25 now resistance 
*RES 2: $0.7052 - High May 4 
*RES 1: $0.7023 - High May 31
*PRICE: $0.6997 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $0.6959 - High May 28 now support
*SUP 2: $0.6944 - 21-DMA
*SUP 3: $0.6880 - Low May 30
*SUP 4: $0.6849 - 2018 Low May 16
*COMMENTARY: The break of $0.6998 has so far lacked follow through with bulls
now looking for a close above $0.7052 to shift initial focus to $0.7103-0.7200
where 55, 100 & 200-DMAs are situated. The 21-DMA remains key support to end the
week. Bears now need a close below the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and return
focus to $0.6849-80 where 2018 lows are situated. The Bollinger top ($0.7032) is
the key concern for bulls.
     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Below NZ$1.0697 to Target 2018 Low
*RES 4: NZ$1.1006 - Low Jan 30 now resistance
*RES 3: NZ$1.0962 - High May 25
*RES 2: NZ$1.0906 - Low May 25 now resistance
*RES 1: NZ$1.0884 - 200-DMA
*PRICE: NZ$1.0804 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: NZ$1.0762 - Alternating daily support/resistance
*SUP 2: NZ$1.0754 - 100-DMA
*SUP 3: NZ$1.0706 - 55-DMA
*SUP 4: NZ$1.0697 - High May 9 now support
*COMMENTARY: Losses have defined the week so far with immediate focus on the
100-DMA. Bears look for a close below to initially pressure the 55-DMA with a
close below NZ$1.0697 needed to return focus to tests of 2018 lows. Bulls
continue to look for a close above NZ$1.0906 to confirm a break above the
200-DMA & regain the upper hand and above NZ$1.0962 to reconfirm focus on 2018
highs.
     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Y81.93 Support Key Today
*RES 4: Y84.04 - High May 23 
*RES 3: Y83.88 - Hourly support May 23 now resistance 
*RES 2: Y83.54 - Hourly resistance May 23 
*RES 1: Y82.66 - High May 31
*PRICE: Y82.32 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: Y81.93 - Hourly support May 30
*SUP 2: Y81.04 - Low May 30
*SUP 3: Y80.77 - Low Mar 28
*SUP 4: Y80.51 - 2018 Low Mar 23
*COMMENTARY: Bears have failed to capitalise on Tuesday's sharp sell-off with an
aggressive rally Wednesday seeing the pair flirting with the 21 (Y82.59) & 55
(Y82.40) DMAs. Bulls now need a close above Y82.66 to confirm traction above 21
& 55-DMAs and above Y83.42 to return focus to Y84.06-85.59 where the 200-DMA
(Y85.48) is found. Bears now look for a close below Y81.93 to return focus to
Y80.51-81.04.
     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: A$1.5526-1.5651 Resistance Region Key
*RES 4: A$1.5618 - High May 23
*RES 3: A$1.5526 - High May 24
*RES 2: A$1.5495 - High May 28
*RES 1: A$1.5488 - 200-DMA
*PRICE: A$1.5449 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: A$1.5358 - Low May 30 
*SUP 2: A$1.5314 - Low May 29 
*SUP 3: A$1.5256 - Low Jan 29 
*SUP 4: A$1.5152 - 2018 Low Jan 11
*COMMENTARY: The pair flirted with the 55-WMA (A$1.5328) this week so far with
bears needing a close below to add weight to the case for an initial test of
2018 lows. Below 2018 lows targets 100 & 200-WMAs (A$1.4866-1.4908). O/S daily
studies remain the key concern for bears as the pair hesitates ahead of the
200-DMA (A$1.5488). Bulls still need a close above A$1.5526 to gain breathing
room and above A$1.5651 to shift initial focus to the 100-DMA A$1.5747.
     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Correcting To 93.291-611
*RES 4: 95.167 - Monthly High Oct 27 
*RES 3: 95.025 - 2018 High May 29 
*RES 2: 94.695 - Hourly resistance May 30 
*RES 1: 94.247 - High May 31
*PRICE: 93.988 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 93.611 - Low May 24
*SUP 2: 93.418 - 21-DMA
*SUP 3: 93.291 - Low May 22
*SUP 4: 92.841 - Alternating daily support/resistance
*COMMENTARY: Wednesday's sell-off resulted in a close below 94.277, easing
bullish pressure and the index trading below the bull channel base off Apr lows
Thursday. Pressure has returned to 93.291-611 with bears needing a close below
to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and target a move back to 91.978-92.223 where
the 200-DMA is noted. Correcting O/B studies add weight to the bearish case.
Bull snow need a close above 94.247 to gain breathing room.
     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Above $1.1889 To Target $1.2015-53
*RES 4: $1.1889 Alternating daily support/resistance
*RES 3: $1.1854 High May 16
*RES 2: $1.1782 21-DMA
*RES 1: $1.1750 High May 24
*PRICE: $1.1688 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1640 Low May 31 
*SUP 2: $1.1594 Hourly support May 30 
*SUP 3: $1.1549 Hourly resistance May 30 now support 
*SUP 4: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29
*COMMENTARY: O/S daily studies appear to be impacting with a rally from ahead of
2018 lows Wednesday. Bulls take comfort in support emerging around $1.1640 with
a close below now needed to ease pressure on layers of resistance $1.1750-1.1889
and below $1.1594 to pressure 2018 lows. Overall the $1.1311-1.1489 support
region remains key. Bulls now need a close above $1.1889 to shift immediate
focus back to $1.2015-53 where the 200-DMA is situated.
     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y109.13
*RES 4: Y110.72 Hourly support May 22 now resistance 
*RES 3: Y110.19 200-DMA 
*RES 2: Y109.66 21-DMA 
*RES 1: Y109.13 Hourly resistance May 29
*PRICE: Y108.81 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: Y108.12 100-DMA 
*SUP 2: Y107.85 High Apr 20 now support 
*SUP 3: Y106.85 Low Apr 17 
*SUP 4: Y106.60 Low Apr 10
*COMMENTARY: Tuesday's sell-off saw the pair dip into the Y107.85-108.16 region
where 55 & 100-DMAs and the 21-WMA (Y108.11) are situated. Bears continue to
look for a close below Y107.85 to confirm breaks of 55 & 100-DMAs and shift
initial focus to Y106.60. Daily studies have room to move before O/S is an
issue. Bulls still need a close above Y109.13 to gain breathing room and above
Y110.72 to shift initial focus back to Y111.39-98.
     EURO-YEN TECHS: Below Y126.22 To Shift Focus Lower
*RES 4: Y129.21 21-DMA
*RES 3: Y129.09 200-WMA
*RES 2: Y128.53 High May 28
*RES 1: Y127.70 High May 31
*PRICE: Y127.22 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: Y126.22 Hourly support May 30 
*SUP 2: Y125.71 Hourly support May 30a 
*SUP 3: Y124.61 2018 Low May 29 
*SUP 4: Y123.63 Low June 21 2017
*COMMENTARY: The failure to gain traction below the 100-WMA (Y125.15) and
confirm the break of Y125.80 resulted in a bounce Wednesday and a continuation
Thursday. Correcting O/S studies add support to the case for a correction back
to Y128.53-129.59 where the 21-DMA & 200-WMA are. Initial support is now noted
at Y126.22 with bears needing a close below to return initial focus to 2018
lows. Bears need a close below the 100-WMA (Y125.15) to retain bearish momentum.
     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 100-WMA
*RES 4: $1325.5 - 100-DMA 
*RES 3: $1320.1 - 55-DMA 
*RES 2: $1310.5 - Low May 10 now resistance 
*RES 1: $1307.4 - 200-DMA
*PRICE: $1297.9 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $1293.4 - Low May 29 
*SUP 2: $1287.4 - Low May 22 
*SUP 3: $1282.3 - Bollinger band base 
*SUP 4: $1281.8 - 2018 Low May 21
*COMMENTARY: Attempts to rally remain capped by the 200-DMA despite daily
studies correcting their O/S condition. Bulls still need a close above $1310.5
to confirm breaks of 21 & 200-DMAs and shift initial focus to $1320.1-1325.5
where 55 & 100-DMAs & the 21-WMA are noted. Bears continue to look for a close
below the 100-WMA to target the 200-WMA ($1234.3).
     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (N18) $65.80 & $68.67 Levels Key Today
*RES 4: $70.10 - 21-DMA 
*RES 3: $69.57 - Hourly resistance May 25 
*RES 2: $68.67 - High May 30 
*RES 1: $68.17 - Hourly resistance May 31
*PRICE: $67.10 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $66.35 - Low May 30 
*SUP 2: $65.80 - Low May 28 
*SUP 3: $65.38 - Low Apr 17 
*SUP 4: $64.63 - 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Volatile trading continues with offers ahead of Wednesdays high
seen capping and pressure remaining on the $64.63-65.80 support region where the
100-DMA is noted. Bears need a close below $65.80 to pressure the 100-DMA and
below $68.37 to shift initial focus to $61.73. Bulls now need a close above
$68.67 to gain breathing room and initially pressure the $70.10-71.09 region
where 21-DMA is noted.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
To read the full story
Close
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
 of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        window.dataLayer.push({
    'event' : 'logedout',
    'loggedOut' : 'loggedOut'
  });
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        (function appendPosts () {  
    var policyPosts = document.getElementsByClassName('policy-posts-wrapper')[0];
    var policyPostsMenu = document.querySelector('.policy-posts-span');
    policyPostsMenu.append(policyPosts);
    policyPosts.style.display = "block";
  
    var empolicyPosts = document.getElementsByClassName('em-policy-posts-wrapper')[0];
    var empolicyPostsMenu = document.querySelector('.em-policy-posts-span');
    empolicyPostsMenu.append(empolicyPosts);
    empolicyPosts.style.display = "block";

    var dataPosts = document.getElementsByClassName('data-posts-wrapper')[0];
    var dataPostsMenu = document.querySelector('.data-posts-span');
    dataPostsMenu.append(dataPosts);
    dataPosts.style.display = "block";
})();
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        document.querySelectorAll(".my-mni").forEach(function(item){
  item.href="/core/users/email_login/";
  item.innerHTML="Log In";
})
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        document.querySelector('.signup-form').addEventListener('submit', () => {
  window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
  dataLayer.push({
    'event' : 'submission_click',
    'event_category': "Sign Up Button Clicks",
     'event_label': "Posts" 
  });  
  
})
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        REBELMOUSE_STDLIB.createElementChangeListener('.signup-form.authentication--form',function(item){
  item.onsubmit=function(e){
    ga('b.send', 'event', {eventCategory: 'Signup', eventAction: 'CompletedForm', eventLabel:'pageTitle', eventValue:15});
    window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
    dataLayer.push({
      'event' : 'signup_click',
      'event_category': "Signup",
      'event_action': 'CompletedForm',
       'event_label': 'pageTitle',
      'event_value': 15
    });  
  }
})
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        document.querySelectorAll("img").forEach(function (img) {
    img.addEventListener("contextmenu", function (e) {
      return false;
    });
  });
  document
    .querySelector(".site-logo img")
    .addEventListener("contextmenu", function (e) {
      return true;
    });
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        document.querySelector('.signup-form').addEventListener('submit', () => {
  window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
  dataLayer.push({
    'event' : 'submission_click',
    'event_category': "Sign Up Button Clicks",
     'event_label': "Posts" 
  });  
  
})
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        REBELMOUSE_STDLIB.createElementChangeListener('.signup-form.authentication--form',function(item){
  item.onsubmit=function(e){
    ga('b.send', 'event', {eventCategory: 'Signup', eventAction: 'CompletedForm', eventLabel:'pageTitle', eventValue:15});
    window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
    dataLayer.push({
      'event' : 'signup_click',
      'event_category': "Signup",
      'event_action': 'CompletedForm',
       'event_label': 'pageTitle',
      'event_value': 15
    });  
  }
})
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        
  let posts = document.querySelectorAll(".all-content-wrapper .widget:not(.stream-story-processed)");
  window.check_story_posts(posts, "streamOfPosts");
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_LOW_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        function populateInputsWithAPAPI(c) {
  document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form input[name="country"]').forEach(el => {
	el.setAttribute("value", c.country_name);
  });
  document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .country_name').forEach(el => {
	el.setAttribute("value", c.country_name);
  });

  let country_code =
    c && c.country_code ? c.country_code.toLowerCase() : "auto";
  document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .country_code').forEach(el => {
	el.setAttribute("value", country_code);
  });
  document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .selected_country').forEach(el => {
	el.setAttribute("value", country_code);
  });
}

const fetch = function (err, res) {
  var r = new XMLHttpRequest();
  r.open("GET", err, !0),
    (r.responseType = "json"),
    (r.onload = function () {
      var err = r.status;
      res(200 === err ? null : err, r.response);
    }),
    r.send();
};

function setupCountry() {
  if (window.preventDuplicateExec) {
    return;
  }
  window.preventDuplicateExec = true;

  window.REBELMOUSE_STDLIB.onElementInViewport({
    threshold: 0,
    firstOnly: true,
    oneTime: true,
    selector: ".signup-form",
    onIntersect: (entry) => {
      // when you need to get access to that data you call it in that way:
      let ipapiData = localStorage.getItem("ipapiData");
      if (!ipapiData) {
        fetch("https://ipapi.co/json/", function (err, ipData) {
          console.log("populating inputs with data from IP API ");
          localStorage.setItem("ipapiData", JSON.stringify(ipData));
          populateInputsWithAPAPI(ipData);
        });
      } else {
        console.log(
          "populating inputs with data from IP API data stored in local storage"
        );
        populateInputsWithAPAPI(JSON.parse(ipapiData));
      }
    },
  });
}

setupCountry();
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_LOW_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        /*
const sidebar = document.querySelector('.left-sidebar-container');
const stickyContent = document.querySelector('.sticky-content');
const siteContent = document.querySelector('.all-posts-stream');
if (sidebar && stickyContent && siteContent) {
  if (siteContent.clientHeight > sidebar.clientHeight) {
    console.log('grater -> ', siteContent.clientHeight + ' > ' + sidebar.clientHeight);
    stickyContent.style.height = (siteContent.clientHeight - sidebar.clientHeight) + 'px';
  }
}
*/
    

});

window.REBELMOUSE_LOW_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){

    
        function populateInputsWithAPAPI(c) {
  document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form input[name="country"]').forEach(el => {
	el.setAttribute("value", c.country_name);
  });
  document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .country_name').forEach(el => {
	el.setAttribute("value", c.country_name);
  });

  let country_code =
    c && c.country_code ? c.country_code.toLowerCase() : "auto";
  document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .country_code').forEach(el => {
	el.setAttribute("value", country_code);
  });
  document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .selected_country').forEach(el => {
	el.setAttribute("value", country_code);
  });
}

const fetch = function (err, res) {
  var r = new XMLHttpRequest();
  r.open("GET", err, !0),
    (r.responseType = "json"),
    (r.onload = function () {
      var err = r.status;
      res(200 === err ? null : err, r.response);
    }),
    r.send();
};

function setupCountry() {
  if (window.preventDuplicateExec) {
    return;
  }
  window.preventDuplicateExec = true;

  window.REBELMOUSE_STDLIB.onElementInViewport({
    threshold: 0,
    firstOnly: true,
    oneTime: true,
    selector: ".signup-form",
    onIntersect: (entry) => {
      // when you need to get access to that data you call it in that way:
      let ipapiData = localStorage.getItem("ipapiData");
      if (!ipapiData) {
        fetch("https://ipapi.co/json/", function (err, ipData) {
          console.log("populating inputs with data from IP API ");
          localStorage.setItem("ipapiData", JSON.stringify(ipData));
          populateInputsWithAPAPI(ipData);
        });
      } else {
        console.log(
          "populating inputs with data from IP API data stored in local storage"
        );
        populateInputsWithAPAPI(JSON.parse(ipapiData));
      }
    },
  });
}

setupCountry();
    

});