MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

2 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7443-81 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $0.7530 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7481 - High June 15, 21-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7443 - Highs June 25 & 26

*RES 1: $0.7409 - High June 29

*PRICE: $0.7396 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7365 - Hourly resistance June 27 now support 

*SUP 2: $0.7323 - 2018 Low June 27 

*SUP 3: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017 

*SUP 4: $0.7246 - High Dec 30 2016 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 18mth lows Wed saw bears shift focus to $0.7152 Dec

2016 monthly lows although the weekly bear channel base ($0.7216) may slow the

move. Correcting O/S studies provided the impetus for a bounce last week. In

saying that, bulls need a close above $0.7443 to gain breathing room and above

$0.7481 to shift initial focus back to $0.7530-0.7627 where the 55 DMA is

located. Above the 55-DMA then initially targets $0.7627-0.7735.

     KIWI TECHS: $0.6845-0.6926 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $0.6882 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*RES 3: $0.6845 - Low June 26 now resistance 

*RES 2: $0.6823 - Low June 21 now resistance 

*RES 1: $0.6787 - Hourly resistance June 28

*PRICE: $0.6777 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6734 - 2018 Low June 29

*SUP 2: $0.6674 - Monthly Low May 30 2016

*SUP 3: $0.6577 - Weekly Bear channel base

*SUP 4: $0.6574 - Low Mar 16 2017

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation at $0.6921 saw repeated fresh 2018 & 2+yr lows

with bearish focus on $0.6543-0.6674 where the weekly bear channel base and

monthly lows are situated. O/S studies and the Bollinger base ($0.6735) are key

concerns for bears. Bulls now need a close above $0.6845 to gain breathing room

and above the 21-DMA ($0.6926) to shift focus back to $0.6969-96 where the

55-DMA is noted.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Hinting At Test Of 2018 High, NZ$1.0962 Key This Week

*RES 4: NZ$1.1073 - 2018 High Jan 29

*RES 3: NZ$1.1006 - Low Jan 30 now resistance

*RES 2: NZ$1.0962 - High May 25

*RES 1: NZ$1.0923 - High July 2

*PRICE: NZ$1.0895 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0862 - 200-DMA

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0830 - Hourly support June 28

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0775 - Low June 27

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0759 - Hourly support June 26

*COMMENTARY: Focus returning to the NZ$1.0906 resistance last week paid off with

the close above NZ$1.0906 seeing overall focus shift to retests of 2018 highs

but a close above NZ$1.0962 is needed to add support to their case. The 200-DMA

remains initial support but bears look for a close below NZ$1.0830 to ease

bullish pressure and return focus to NZ$1.0778-96 where 21 & 55-DMAs are

located.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Key DMAs Clustered Y82.42/68

*RES 4: Y82.68 - 100-DMA 

*RES 3: Y82.55 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: Y82.42 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: Y82.04 - High June 29

*PRICE: Y81.75 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y81.30 - Hourly resistance June 28 now support

*SUP 2: Y81.05 - Low June 29

*SUP 3: Y80.63 - Low June 19

*SUP 4: Y80.51 - 2018 Low Mar 23

*COMMENTARY: Despite bearish pressure the past couple of weeks bears have failed

to make fresh 2018 lows. The bounce last week saw bulls gain breathing room but

key DMAs clustered tightly Y82.42-68 is a concern. Bulls now need a close above

the 100-DMA to end bearish hopes and shift focus back to Y83.63-85.00 where the

200-DMA is noted. Bears now need a close below Y81.30 to shift pressure back to

2018 lows.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below A$1.5694

*RES 4: A$1.5967 - High May 9

*RES 3: A$1.5887 - High May 15

*RES 2: A$1.5825 - High June 27

*RES 1: A$1.5784 - High June 28

*PRICE: A$1.5758 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5694 - Low June 27 

*SUP 2: A$1.5650 - Low June 22 

*SUP 3: A$1.5615 - Low June 20 

*SUP 4: A$1.5541 - Low June 18

*COMMENTARY: The break of A$1.5771 and the 100-DMA (A$1.5774) lacked follow

through with O/B daily studies now weighing. In saying that, bears now look for

a close below A$1.5694 to confirm a break of the bull channel base (A$1.5775)

and return initial focus to A$1.5615-50. While A$1.5694 supports bulls remain

focused on A$1.5887-1.5967 but continue to look for a close above A$1.5825 to

add support to their case.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 100-WMA Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 95.570 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 95.561 - 100-WMA 

*RES 2: 95.090 - Low June 28 now resistance 

*RES 1: 94.706 - Hourly support June 29 now resistance

*PRICE: 94.636 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 94.415 - Hourly support June 26

*SUP 2: 94.371 - 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 94.028 - High June 13 now support

*SUP 4: 93.185 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 12mth highs have lacked follow through with hesitation

around the 100-WMA continuing. Bulls continue to look for a close above the

100-WMA (95.561) to target 96.617. The 94.028 support remains key. Bears need a

close below this level to confirm traction below the 21-DMA and to shift focus

back to 92.198-93.193 where 55 & 200-DMAs are located.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1723 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: $1.1820 High June 11

*RES 3: $1.1723 Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.1677 Daily Bear Channel top off Apr 19 high

*RES 1: $1.1670 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1.1639 @ 2100GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1600 High June 28 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.1575 Hourly resistance June 29 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29 

*SUP 4: $1.1470 Low July 18 2017

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the bear channel top off Apr 19 highs capping

last week with the $1.1723 resistance remaining key. Bulls still need a close

above $1.1723 to confirm breaks of the 21-DMA and bear channel top and initially

target $1.1854-1.1901. Initial support is noted at $1.1600 with bears needing a

close below to ease pressure on resistance layers and below $1.1506 to shift

immediate focus to $1.1311.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Topside Hesitation Continues

*RES 4: Y111.49 High Jan 18 

*RES 3: Y111.39 High May 21 

*RES 2: Y111.18 High May 22 

*RES 1: Y110.93 High June 29

*PRICE: Y110.54 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.38 Low June 29 

*SUP 2: Y109.95 Low June 28 

*SUP 3: Y109.63 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y109.01 Hourly support June 1

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to gain traction on the marginal pop above Y110.90

with bulls now needing a close above Y110.93 to confirm traction above the

200-DMA (Y110.18) and shift initial focus to Y111.39-98. Bears now need a close

below the 55-DMA to gain breathing room and below Y109.01 to confirm a break of

the 55-DMA and Bull channel base, initially pressuring Y107.85-108.19 where the

100-DMA is found with below Y107.85 to shift focus back to 2018 lows.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Hesitating Ahead Of Key Resistance Region

*RES 4: Y130.02 Daily Bear channel top off 2018 highs

*RES 3: Y129.70 55-DMA

*RES 2: Y129.65 Hourly support June 13 now resistance

*RES 1: Y129.48 Low June 12 now resistance

*PRICE: Y128.69 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y128.49 Hourly support June 29 

*SUP 2: Y127.95 Hourly resistance June 29 now support 

*SUP 3: Y126.98 Low June 21 

*SUP 4: Y126.63 Low June 19

*COMMENTARY: The rally from the week's low saw pressure return to layers of

resistance Y129.69-130.34 where 55 & 100-DMAs and the bear channel top off 2018

highs are situated. Bulls now need a close above the 100-DMA (Y130.44) to

initially target Y131.37-132.59 where the 200-DMA (Y132.03) is noted. Bears now

need a close below Y128.49 to ease renewed bullish pressure and below Y126.22 to

confirm immediate focus on tests of 2018 lows.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1262.7-1284.1 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: $1274.3 - 100-WMA 

*RES 3: $1272.5 - High June 25 

*RES 2: $1262.7 - Hourly support June 26 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1260.1 - High June 27

*PRICE: $1249.1 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1245.3 - 2018 Low Jan 28 

*SUP 2: $1239.1 - LT Rising TL off 2015 Low 

*SUP 3: $1235.9 - Monthly low Dec 12 

*SUP 4: $1233.9 - 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 7mth lows added weight to the bearish case targeting

tests of the 200-WMA and LT rising TL of 2015 lows around $1237.9. The Bollinger

base ($1244.2) and O/S daily studies looking to correct remain key concern for

bears. Bulls still look for a close above $1262.7 to gain breathing room and

above $1284.1 to return pressure to $1292.2-1310.5.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Q18) Bears Need Close Below $72.18

*RES 4: $79.85 - High Nov 10 2014 

*RES 3: $77.83 - High Nov 21 2014 

*RES 2: $75.96 - Weekly Bull channel top 

*RES 1: $74.46 - 2018 High June 29

*PRICE: $74.15 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $73.70 - Hourly resistance June 28 now support 

*SUP 2: $72.93 - Hourly support June 28 

*SUP 3: $72.18 - Hourly support June 27 

*SUP 4: $71.40 - Hourly resistance June 27 now support

*COMMENTARY: Support around the 55-DMA ($68.23) provided the base for gains that

have resulted in fresh 2018 & 3+yr highs. Bulls now focus on the $75.96-79.85

region where the LT weekly bull channel top ($75.96) is situated. O/B studies

and the Bollinger top ($73.00) remain concerns for bulls. In saying that, bears

now need a close below $72.18 to gain breathing room and below $71.40 to shift

initial focus back to $69.44-70.02.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]