MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

9 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Above $0.7552 To Target 100 & 200-DMAs

*RES 4: $0.7527 - Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7501 - 55-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7481 - High June 15

*RES 1: $0.7444 - High July 6

*PRICE: $0.7433 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7413 - Hourly support July 6 

*SUP 2: $0.7348 - Hourly resistance July 3 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2 

*SUP 4: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on fresh 2018 & 18mth lows last week

with the pair trading at the week's high Friday. Bulls Now need a close above

$0.7481 to hint at a move back to $0.7615-0.7735 where 100 ($0.7615) & 200

($0.7693) are located with above $0.7552 confirming. Daily studies are well

placed for a fresh leg higher before O/B is an issue. Bears now need a close

below $0.7413 today to ease pressure on the $0.7481 resistance.

     KIWI TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $0.6797

*RES 4: $0.6921 - High June 25 

*RES 3: $0.6882 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*RES 2: $0.6867 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $0.6845 - Low June 26 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.6837 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6797 - High July 5 now support

*SUP 2: $0.6741 - Low July 4

*SUP 3: $0.6686 - 2018 Low July 3

*SUP 4: $0.6674 - Monthly Low May 30 2016

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging ahead of the $0.6674 May

2016 low that along with correcting O/S studies provided the impetus for a

bounce last week. This week bulls look for a close above the 55-DMA ($0.6937) to

hint at a move back to $0.7059-0.7157 where 100 ($0.7089) & 200 ($0.7081) DMAs

and key WMAs are clustered. Bears now need a close below $0.6797 to ease

pressure on the 21-DMA and below $0.6741 to reconfirm focus on $0.6674-86.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bears Need Close Below NZ$1.0830

*RES 4: NZ$1.0965 - Hourly support July 3 now resistance

*RES 3: NZ$1.0957 - Hourly support July 3 now resistance

*RES 2: NZ$1.0926 - High July 4

*RES 1: NZ$1.0899 - Low July 4 now resistance

*PRICE: NZ$1.0876 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0853 - Low July 6

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0830 - Hourly support June 28

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0775 - Low June 27

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0759 - Hourly support June 26

*COMMENTARY: O/B daily studies and the Bollinger top (NZ$1.0967) impacted with a

lack of follow through on Tuesday's 5mth highs and the pair remaining a little

offered. The NZ$1.0830 support is key. Bears look for a close below NZ$1.0830 to

confirm a break below the 200-DMA (NZ$1.0862), easing bullish pressure and

returning focus to NZ$1.0775-1.0810 where 21 & 55-DMAs are located. Bulls now

need a close above NZ$1.1006 to reconfirm a bullish bias targeting 2018 highs.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: 100-DMA Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: Y82.57 - 100-DMA 

*RES 3: Y82.52 - 21-WMA 

*RES 2: Y82.45 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: Y82.24 - High July 6

*PRICE: Y82.11 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y81.59 - Low July 6

*SUP 2: Y81.26 - Low July 5

*SUP 3: Y80.99 - Low July 2

*SUP 4: Y81.05 - Low June 29

*COMMENTARY: Despite bearish pressure on 2018 lows the past couple of weeks

bears have failed to make fresh 2018 lows. The bounce last week saw bulls gain

breathing room but key MAs clustered tightly Y82.45-57 are a concern. Bulls need

a close above the 100-DMA (Y82.57) to end bearish hopes and shift focus back to

Y83.63-85.00 where the 200-DMA is noted. While the 100-DMA caps bears target a

break lower with below Y81.59 to gain breathing room and below Y80.24 to target

Y74.50-75.95.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above A$1.5877

*RES 4: A$1.6056 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance

*RES 3: A$1.5967 - High May 9

*RES 2: A$1.5924 - Bollinger band top

*RES 1: A$1.5887 - High July 15

*PRICE: A$1.5797 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5774 - Low July 5 

*SUP 2: A$1.5694 - Low June 27, 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: A$1.5650 - Low June 22 

*SUP 4: A$1.5615 - Low June 20

*COMMENTARY: Daily momentum divergence and O/B daily studies impacted last week

with the pair remaining capped at the A$1.5887-1.5967 region with a close above

needed to confirm focus on A$1.6056-1.6140 where 2018 & monthly highs are noted.

O/B studies remain the key concern for bulls. While A$1.5887 caps there is an

increased risk of tests of support layers A$1.5615-1.5700 where the 21

(A$1.5700) & 55-DMAs are located.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Immediate Focus On 55-DMA

*RES 4: 95.141 - High July 2 

*RES 3: 94.728 - Hourly support July 3 now resistance 

*RES 2: 94.548 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: 94.177 - Low July 5 now resistance

*PRICE: 94.036 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 93.623 - 55-DMA

*SUP 2: 93.193 - Low June 14

*SUP 3: 92.837 - High May 11 now support

*SUP 4: 92.241 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 12mth highs lacked follow through last week with

hesitation around the 100-WMA continuing. Bulls continue to look for a close

above the 100-WMA (95.5440 to target 96.617. The break of 94.028 sees immediate

pressure on the 55-DMA and bears now focused on a break of 92.837 needed to

pressure 100 (91.941) & 200 DMAs. Bulls now need a close above 94.728 to gain

breathing room and return pressure to 95.140-531.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Hesitating Ahead Of 55-DMA

*RES 4: $1.1889 Low May 11 now resistance

*RES 3: $1.1854 High May 16

*RES 2: $1.1820 High June 11

*RES 1: $1.1774 55-DMA

*PRICE: $1.1742 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1723 Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 2: $1.1670 Hourly support July 5 

*SUP 3: $1.1627 Low July 4 

*SUP 4: $1.1589 Low July 2

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the $1.1723 resistance took its toll last week with a

break and close above Friday only to pause ahead of the 55-DMA. The

$1.1889-1.1924 region where the 55-WMA ($1.1914) is key this week. Bulls now

need a close above the 55-WMA to shift initial focus to $1.1984-1.2053 where 100

($1.2019) & 200 ($1.1984) DMAs are noted. Bears now need a close below $1.1670

to ease renewed bullish pressure and below $1.1589 to pressure 2018 lows.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: 55-DMA Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Y111.49 High Jan 18 

*RES 3: Y111.39 Monthly High May 21 

*RES 2: Y111.18 High May 22 

*RES 1: Y110.78 High June 6

*PRICE: Y110.43 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.13 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y109.95 Low June 28 

*SUP 3: Y109.90 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y109.01 Hourly support June 1

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation is a concern with Y111.39-112.04 where May highs

are noted remaining key. Bulls look for a close above Y112.04 to end bearish

hopes, shifting immediate focus to Y113.23-44 where the 200-WMA (Y113.23) is

noted and overall focus to Y114.72 Nov highs. Bears now need a close below the

200-DMA to gain breathing room and below the 55-DMA to confirm a break of the

bull channel base (Y110.27) off 2018 lows return pressure to Y109.01. A close

below Y109.01 initially targets Y107.85-108.24.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y130.34

*RES 4: Y131.37 High May 14

*RES 3: Y130.34 Highs June 13 & 14

*RES 2: Y130.28 100-DMA

*RES 1: Y129.96 High July 6

*PRICE: Y129.62 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.09 Hourly support July 5 

*SUP 2: Y128.40 Low July 2 

*SUP 3: Y127.95 Hourly resistance June 29 now support 

*SUP 4: Y126.98 Low June 21

*COMMENTARY: Last week saw a pop above the daily bear channel top (Y129.67) but

hesitation ahead of the 100-DMA is a concern. Bulls now need a close above

Y130.34 to confirm breaks of 55 (Y129.41) & 100-DMAs and the bear channel top to

shift immediate focus to Y131.37-132.59 where the 200-DMA (Y131.95) is noted.

Bears now need a close below Y129.09 to gain breathing room and below Y128.40 to

shift immediate focus back to Y126.22.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1262.7-1273.5 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: $1286.2 - Hourly resistance June 15 

*RES 3: $1284.1 - High June 19 

*RES 2: $1273.5 - 100-WMA 

*RES 1: $1262.7 - Hourly support June 26 now resistance

*PRICE: $1254.2 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1250.7 - Low July 4 

*SUP 2: $1244.1 - Hourly support July 3 

*SUP 3: $1237.3 - 2018 Low July 3 

*SUP 4: $1235.9 - Monthly low Dec 12

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 7mth lows lacked follow through Tuesday with an

aggressive bounce from below the LT rising TL off 2015 lows and ahead of the key

200-WMA ($1233.8). Bears look for a close below the 200-WMA to confirm breaks of

key supports and initially target $1204.5. Bulls need a close above $1262.7 to

return pressure to $1273.5 where the 100-WMA is noted. Correcting O/S studies

are a concern for bears.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Q18) Below $72.14 To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: $76.19 - Weekly Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $75.77 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: $75.27 - 2018 High July 3 

*RES 1: $74.90 - High July 4

*PRICE: $73.80 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $73.31 - Hourly support July 6 

*SUP 2: $72.14 - Low July 6 

*SUP 3: $71.40 - Hourly resistance June 27 now support 

*SUP 4: $70.02 - Hourly support June 26

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 3+yr highs Tuesday remained capped ahead of daily and

weekly bull channel tops. The Bollinger top ($76.02) and very O/B daily studies

remain key concerns for bulls and limit follow through. Below $72.14 is now

needed to hint at a move back to $69.44-70.02 with a close below $71.40 to add

weight to their case. While $72.14 caps bulls retain an advantage with focus

remaining on bull channel tops.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]