MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

13 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Immediate Focus Back On 2018 Low

*RES 4: $0.7490 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7484 - High July 10

*RES 2: $0.7459 - Hourly support July 10 now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7423 - Low July 9 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7407 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7357 - Low July 12 

*SUP 2: $0.7327 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2 

*SUP 4: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017

*COMMENTARY: Bears continue to look for a close below $0.7308 to shift focus to

tests of $0.7142 2017 lows. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower.

Layers of resistance have followed the pair lower and add to bearish confidence.

Bulls now need a close above $0.7423 to gain breathing room and above the 55-DMA

to hint at a move back to $0.7598-0.7735 where 100 ($0.7598) & 200 ($0.7685)

DMAs are located with above $0.7552 confirming.

     KIWI TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.6804

*RES 4: $0.6921 - High June 25 

*RES 3: $0.6882 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*RES 2: $0.6825 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $0.6804 - Low July 10 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.6776 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6741 - Low July 4

*SUP 2: $0.6686 - 2018 Low July 3

*SUP 3: $0.6674 - Monthly Low May 30 2016

*SUP 4: $0.6577 - Weekly Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: The failure at the 21-DMA resulted in a sharp sell-off Wednesday

and focus back on the $0.6674-0.6741 region where 2018 lows are situated. Bears

look for a close at fresh 2018 lows to shift focus to the weekly bear channel

base coming in around $0.6577 today. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh

leg lower. Bulls now need a close above $0.6804 to gain breathing room and above

$0.6882 to shift initial focus to $0.6921 where the 55-DMA is situated.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: NZ$1.0830 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: NZ$1.1073 - 2018 High Jan 29

*RES 3: NZ$1.1006 - Low Jan 30 now resistance

*RES 2: NZ$1.0992 - High July 3

*RES 1: NZ$1.0957 - Hourly support July 3 now resistance

*PRICE: NZ$1.0928 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0893 - Low July 12

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0862 - 200-DMA

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0853 - Low July 6

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0830 - Hourly support June 28

*COMMENTARY: O/B daily studies and the Bollinger top (NZ$1.1009) impacted with a

lack of follow through on last week's 5mth highs. Bulls take comfort in bounces

from around the 200-DMA but continue to look for a close above NZ$1.1006 to

reconfirm a bullish bias and initially targeting 2018 highs. Initial support is

noted at NZ$1.0893 but bears need a close below NZ$1.0830 to confirm a break

below the 200-DMA, easing bullish pressure and below the 55-DMA (NZ$1.0826) to

return pressure NZ$1.0775.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bulls Focused On 200-DMA

*RES 4: Y84.65 - 200-DMA 

*RES 3: Y84.53 - High June 7 

*RES 2: Y84.19 - 100-WMA 

*RES 1: Y83.63 - High June 14

*PRICE: Y83.34 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y82.72 - High July 10 now support

*SUP 2: Y82.07 - Low July 11

*SUP 3: Y81.90 - 21-DMA

*SUP 4: Y81.59 - Low July 6

*COMMENTARY: The close above Y83.16 adds to bullish confidence and sees focus on

Y84.51-89 where the 200-DMA is located. Daily studies approaching O/B levels are

a key concern for bulls. Initial support is now noted at the July 10 high with

bears needing a close below to gain breathing room. The Y81.59 support remains

key this week. Bears now need a close below this level to confirm traction below

the 21-DMA (Y81.90) and shift focus back to Y80.24-63.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: A$1.5887-1.5967 Resistance Region Remains Key

*RES 4: A$1.5967 - High May 9

*RES 3: A$1.5887 - High July 3

*RES 2: A$1.5870 - Bollinger band top

*RES 1: A$1.5802 - Hourly support July 12 now resistance

*PRICE: A$1.5751 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5748 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: A$1.5673 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: A$1.5650 - Low June 22 

*SUP 4: A$1.5615 - Low June 20

*COMMENTARY: The A$1.5887-1.5967 resistance region remains key this week. Bulls

need a close above this level to reconfirm the bullish bias with a close above

A$1.5967 then needed to confirm focus on A$1.6056-1.6140 where 2018 & monthly

highs are noted. Correcting O/B studies have recently weighed. Bears continue to

look for a close below the 55-DMA to initially focus on A$1.5541-89 where the

200-DMA is located.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: 96.617 - High June 28 2017 

*RES 3: 95.530 - 100-WMA 

*RES 2: 95.402 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 95.141 - High July 2

*PRICE: 94.814 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 94.642 - Low July

*SUP 2: 94.018 - Low July 10

*SUP 3: 93.865 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 93.193 - Low June 14

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 12mth highs lacked follow through last week with

hesitation around the 100-WMA continuing. Bulls take comfort in the bounce from

the 55-DMA this week but continue to look for a close above the 100-WMA (95.530)

to target 96.617. Bears now look for a close below 94.486 to gain breathing room

and below the 55-DMA to confirm initial focus on 92.837-93.193 and hint at a

move back to 100 (92.133) & 200 (92.262) DMAs.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Focused On $1.1506-89

*RES 4: $1.1820 High June 11

*RES 3: $1.1790 High July 9

*RES 2: $1.1765 Hourly resistance July 9

*RES 1: $1.1695 High July 12

*PRICE: $1.1670 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1651 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.1627 Low July 4 

*SUP 3: $1.1589 Low July 2 

*SUP 4: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the break of the 55-DMA ($1.1740) was

less than ideal for bulls and sees pressure on the 21-DMA as the euro remains

offered. Bears shift focus back to the $1.1506-89 support region with below the

21-DMA to add weight to their case. Bulls now need a close above $1.1790 to

confirm traction above the 55-DMA and above the 55-WMA ($1.1922) to shift

initial focus to $1.1984-1.2053 where 100 ($1.1994) & 200 ($1.1983) DMAs are

found.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y111.86 Support Key Today

*RES 4: Y113.74 Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 3: Y113.38 2018 High Jan 8 

*RES 2: Y113.24 200-WMA 

*RES 1: Y112.87 Low Jan 8 now resistance

*PRICE: Y112.49 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.17 High July 11 now support 

*SUP 2: Y111.86 Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 3: Y111.39 Monthly High May 21 now support

*SUP 4: Y110.75 Low July 11

*COMMENTARY: Support around the 21 & 200-DMAs provided the base for continued

fresh 7mth highs with initial bullish focus now shifting to the Y113.24-74

region where 2018 & Dec highs are located. Daily studies approaching O/B and the

Bollinger top (Y112.20) are the key concern for bulls with potential to limit

follow through. Bears now need a close below Y111.86 to ease bullish pressure

and below Y111.35 to shift focus back to Y109.95-110.75 where key DMAs and the

bull channel base off 2018 lows are noted.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 200-DMA

*RES 4: Y133.48 Monthly High Apr 24

*RES 3: Y132.59 Low Apr 24

*RES 2: Y131.92 200-DMA

*RES 1: Y131.49 55-WMA

*PRICE: Y131.29 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.95 High July 11 now support 

*SUP 2: Y130.64 Hourly support July 12 

*SUP 3: Y130.35 Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 4: Y129.83 Hourly support July 9

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort as the pair gains topside traction and focus on

Y131.49-92 where the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are located. Daily studies back at very

O/B levels is the key concern for bulls. Overall bulls look for a close above

the 200-DMA to target Y133.48-135.67 where the LT TL off 2014 highs is noted.

Bears now look for a close below Y130.64 to gain breathing room and below

Y129.83 to hint at a move back to Y128.40 with below the 55-DMA (Y129.29) to

confirm.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 200-WMA

*RES 4: $1272.6 - 100-WMA 

*RES 3: $1260.7 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $1260.2 - High July 10 

*RES 1: $1248.6 - Low July 10 now resistance

*PRICE: $1246.6 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1241.2 - LT Rising TL off 2015 low 

*SUP 2: $1237.3 - 2018 Low July 3 

*SUP 3: $1235.9 - Monthly low Dec 12 

*SUP 4: $1233.9 - 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The topside failure ahead of the 21-DMA left the pair looking

offered and bears have not been disappointed with pressure returning to the LT

rising TL off 2015 lows and the 200-WMA. Bears look for a close below the

200-WMA to confirm breaks of key supports and initially target $1204.5. Daily

studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower. Bulls still need a close above

the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and to return initial focus to $1272.6 where

the 100-WMA is noted and above the 100-WMA to target $1284.0-1292.1.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (U18) Below 55-DMA To Target 100-DMA

*RES 4: $72.98 - Monthly High July 10 

*RES 3: $72.08 - Low July 10 now resistance 

*RES 2: $71.13 - Low July 9 now resistance 

*RES 1: $69.93 - Low July 6 now resistance

*PRICE: $69.36 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $68.78 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $68.36 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: $67.76 - High June 25 now support 

*SUP 4: $66.77 - Low June 25

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of $73.00 has taken its toll for U18 with the

sharp sell-off seeing pressure on the 55-DMA. Bears now look for a close below

$67.76 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and shift initial focus to $65.69-66.77

where the 100-DMA is noted. Layers of resistance building and correcting O/B

studies have recently weighed. Bulls now need a close above $69.93 to gain

breathing room and above $71.13 to shift focus back to $72.08-98.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]