-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI Podcasts -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
Commodities
Real-time insight of oil & gas markets
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
MNI Research
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
-
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI: Barkin Sees Risk Of Higher Fed Rates Amid Sticky Prices
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said Friday some recent signals about a hot economy may be overstated and he favors a slower pace of interest-rate hikes than last year, while adding he's prepared to tighten even more if needed.
"It makes sense to move more deliberately than we did last year," he said, emphasizing data dependence in prepared remarks. "If I’m right and inflation persists, we can react by raising rates further."
"Returning prices to the stability of the last 30 years will likely take a lot more time and effort," said Barkin, who is not expecting inflation to return to target until 2025. "We have forecasted additional rate increases and the SEP has made clear that we don’t anticipate rate cuts this year."
"Inflation is likely past peak. But I think it will take time to return to target, and, as a consequence, believe we still have work to do." (See: MNI INTERVIEW: US Inflation Could Take Many Years To Reach 2%)
The FOMC raised interest rates by 25 bps last month and is expected to do so again in March, taking the fed funds rate target to 4.75%-5%. A few officials have floated the potential for a larger 50 bps move. (See: MNI INTERVIEW: Fed Could Hike Rates More Than Expected-Hoenig)
UNSUSTAINABLE
The recent string of stronger-than-expected data should be taken with a grain of salt because seasonality adjustments likely distorted true signals, he said.
"January data is telling a very different story. Consumer spending, job growth and inflation have all accelerated. Is January an aberration, or is the economy actually stronger than we had thought?" he said in a speech at a Stanford University event.
"I see the jump as real, but doubt that it is as large as portrayed, or is sustainable," he said, noting unseasonably warm weather across the US. "That likely has goosed spending. And it seems clear that the holiday season (with gift cards) has now stretched from two months to four months."
"But that said, the labor market is still quite tight. The unemployment rate is 3.4 percent, a 54-year low. Employers tell me they aren’t as desperate as they were a year ago, but it is still difficult to find workers."
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.