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MNI BI Preview - July 2023: Extended Pause, Too Early To Cut

INDONESIA CENTRAL BANK
  • Bank Indonesia is widely expected to keep rates at 5.75%. Its pause should be extended until towards the end of the year and possibly into 2024 with the next move in rates likely to be down. So, at this and subsequent meetings, the statement will be examined closely for changes in tone or expectations.
  • Strengthening FX stabilisation policy remains the policy focus and with the rupiah weakening since the last meeting that probably not only remained the case. BI has a number of tools to maintain rupiah stabilisation.
  • Disappointing growth, inflation heading to below 2%, a stronger IDR and a clear end to the Fed's tightening cycle are likely needed for BI to begin easing monetary policy.
  • See full preview here.
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