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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MNI: CANADA 3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- The BoC is unanimously expected to hold its policy rate at 5% for a sixth meeting but there is now a greater likelihood of a softening in tone after disinflationary progress and a climbing unemployment rate.
- Some analysts even see non-trivial risk of a cut this week whilst BoC-dated OIS has 4-5bps priced.
- We don’t expect a congratulatory tone from the Bank, but rather only a modestly more dovish tone whilst reiterating there is still work to be done.
- The aim will be to prevent an overly large easing in financial conditions whilst seeing almost two months of data (including two CPI reports) and the federal government budget on April 16 before the June decision.
- The market has circa 75bp of cuts priced for 2024, in sizeable part courtesy of Canada’s linkages to the US, but the next couple of meetings could put this to the test.
- We expect markets will be particularly sensitive to the tone around inflation moderation and labour market rebalancing over the simultaneous statements before the Q&A in the subsequent press conference.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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