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MNI BOE Preview: Downside risks to 75bp hike

BOE
  • The MNI Markets team expects a 75bp hike at this week’s MPC meeting, albeit with risks of a smaller 50bp hike.
  • UK markets have moved back to close to their prevailing levels ahead of the September MPC meeting but with inflation still in double digits and still flagging concerns in the Bank’s DMP surveys, and still a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the magnitude of fiscal consolidation, we think that the majority of the MPC will not want to disappoint a strong analyst and market consensus of a 75bp hike.
  • With growth already starting to falter, however, we do think there is a risk that the Bank delivers a smaller 50bp hike (but do not see the need for a larger 100bp hike at this stage).

For the full document including summaries of over 20 sell side view click here.

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