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MNI BoJ Preview - June 2023: On Hold, Inflation Outlook & YCC In Focus

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • We are in line with the broad consensus that looks for no change at this week’s meeting. Market expectations have moved away from a potential YCC tweak this week, with July now seen as a more likely window for an adjustment. Our recent bias has leant into a July YCC tweak, when the Bank will have its revised economic projections to hand.
  • An upward revision to the inflation outlook is likely at the July policy meeting. This could pave the way for a YCC shift, which is the rough sell-side consensus.
  • Whilst Ueda has stated that Japan has still not achieved sustainable 2% underlying inflation, the April inflation forecasts look too low and the BoJ’s own in house research is suggesting changing price pass-through behaviour from corporates.
  • Full preview here:

    • BOJ Preview - June 2023.pdf


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