Free Trial

Remains Vulnerable




Late SOFR/Eurodollar/Treasury Option Roundup

Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access

MNI BRIEF: Bank Of Italy Cuts 2023 Growth View, Ups Inflation


The Bank of Italy revised downwards its 2023 GDP growth estimate to 0.3% in the baseline scenario in macroeconomic projections published Thursday, one percentage point less than in its July projections, but boosted its inflation outlook.

The Bank revised upwards its growth estimate for this year to 3.3%, despite acknowledging that “a contraction in GDP in the second half of 2022 is expected”. Its expectation for this year’s inflation climbed to 8.5%, from 7.8% in July, and to 6.5% in 2023, from 4% in July, well above the ECB’s 2% target. (See MNI SOURCES: More ECB Policymakers See Restrictive Rates)

It sees 2024 inflation at 2.3%, above July’s projection for 2%.

In its adverse scenario, which assumes energy supplies from Russia are shut off and commodity prices significantly higher, GDP is expected to contract more than 1.5% in 2023, though output should “rise moderately” in 2024. Inflation would be above 9% in 2023 and above 2.3% in 2024.

The baseline sees oil averaging around USD103 a barrel in 2022, just under USD80 in 2023 and USD74 in 2024. Natural gas prices average about EUR150 per megawatt hour in 2022, almost EUR190 in 2023 and just under EUR120 in 2024.

MNI Rome Bureau | +34-672-478-840 |
MNI Rome Bureau | +34-672-478-840 |

To read the full story

Why Subscribe to

MNI is the leading provider

of news and intelligence specifically for the Global Foreign Exchange and Fixed Income Markets, providing timely, relevant, and critical insight for market professionals and those who want to make informed investment decisions. We offer not simply news, but news analysis, linking breaking news to the effects on capital markets. Our exclusive information and intelligence moves markets.

Our credibility

for delivering mission-critical information has been built over three decades. The quality and experience of MNI's team of analysts and reporters across America, Asia and Europe truly sets us apart. Our Markets team includes former fixed-income specialists, currency traders, economists and strategists, who are able to combine expertise on macro economics, financial markets, and political risk to give a comprehensive and holistic insight on global markets.