MNI BRIEF: BOE "Aiming Off" To Curb Inflation Risks - Bailey

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey told lawmakers that "inflation has turned the corner" and he stated in his written testimony that policymakers had "good reasons to expect inflation to fall sharply over the coming months," but policy was being set to reflect concerns that inflation risks lie to the upside.

The MPC's modal, or most likely, May projections showed inflation undershooting the 2% target in the latter stages of the three year forecast but Bailey said policymakers had "taken a conscious decision to aim off" those model based projections by raising Bank Rate to deal with upside inflation risks.

Bank Chief Economist Huw Pill said that his concern has whether the Bank's models that have been based on the experience of relatively low inflation over the past 30 years were able to "capture possible changes in behaviour" in the current high inflation period. Pill said that the Bank had underestimated how strong inflation would turn out to be.