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MNI BRIEF: Italy 2023 Growth At 0.6%; 2% Inflation In '25 -BOI

(MNI) Rome

The Bank of Italy has upped its Italian growth outlook for 2023 to 0.6% -- up three tenths of a percentage point from October. The central bank keeps its inflation outlook at 6.5% this year, raising it to 2.6% in 2024 before heading lower again in 2025, according to the latest Economic Bulletin, published Friday.

The projections are subject to a great amount of uncertainty, the central ban said, as the price of raw materials and energy offers downside risks for growth and two sided inflation risks -- to the upside in the short term with possible price spikes and to the downside in the medium term if aggregate demand weakens.

In an adverse scenario, where Russia stops energy exports to Europe, Italy would see an “almost 1%” contraction in 2023 and 2024 and only return to positive but slow growth in 2025. Regarding inflation, prices would jump to close to 10% this year, 4% the next, although still coming back to 2% in 2025.

MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 |

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