MNI BRIEF: Japan Q1 GDP To Rise 0.2% Q/Q, 0.6% annualised

Japan's economy is expected to expand 0.2% in Q1 – or 0.6% annualised – for the second straight quarter following solid private consumption and public investment, and despite a fall in capital investment, MNI understands.

The expected gain follows Q4 2022's 0.1% y/y rise. Economists predict private consumption, which accounts for about 60% of GDP, will rise 0.4% q/q, accelerating from last quarter's 0.3%. The Cabinet Office will release preliminary GDP data for Q1 at 8:50am (JST) on May 17.

Capital investment during Q1 is expected to decline 0.3% q/q, improving from Q4 2022's 0.5% fall, while public investment will increase 2.3% q/q from a 0.3% drop. Going forward, economists expect Japan’s economy to grow in Q2 due to a recovery of inbound tourists and the lift of government Covid-19 restrictions.

The Bank of Japan was cautious at last week's board meeting, warning the slowing global economy and inflation remained a risk to the economy (see: MNI BOJ WATCH: Ueda Stresses Caution Ahead Of Policy Review).