Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Reserve Bank of Australia modelling showed house prices could fall 20% if people react more negatively to higher interest rates, according to emails and documents disclosed through a Freedom of Information request.
The documents show the RBA expects house prices in Sydney and Melbourne to decline 1.5% a month over the the second half of the year, helping steer an 11% peak-to-trough fall by the end of 2023. A downside scenario that assumes that "people become pessimistic about the outlook for housing prices" due to falling prices or higher rates could deliver a decline of 20% by the end of 2024. The downgrade to wealth under a more pessimistic scenario would result in the level of consumption being 0.75% lower than the RBA's baseline, therefore a further drag on the economy.
The disclosures come as data from CoreLogic showed Sydney home values are down 10.1% since their peak in February. Melbourne home prices are down 6.4% from their January peak.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.