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MNI BRIEF: St Louis Fed Model Signals 300k Gain For March Jobs

WASHINGTON (MNI)

U.S. hiring in March likely took a step down from a month earlier, according to the St. Louis Federal Reserve's analysis of real-time employment data from the scheduling software company Homebase, showing a seasonally adjusted rise of 300,000 employed persons, economist Max Dvorkin told MNI.

The Fed bank's coincident employment index uses high-frequency data from scheduling software company Homebase, which shows a "mild improvement" for March, with the index increasing by 0.43 points. "This translates into a projected increase in CPS employment of 722,000, not seasonally adjusted, and 300,000 seasonally adjusted," Dvorkin said.

In February, the model forecast a seasonally-adjusted gain of 450,000 jobs as measured by the BLS's household survey. The official payrolls figure based on the "establishment" survey of businesses came in at 678,000, though the household survey found employment increased by 548,000 during the month.

MNI Washington Bureau | +1 202-371-2121 | jean.yung@marketnews.com
MNI Washington Bureau | +1 202-371-2121 | jean.yung@marketnews.com

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