MNI BRIEF: UK Retail Sales Bounce Back After Weak Christmas
Retail sales bounce offering hopes UK recession short and shallow.
UK retail sales bounced back in January from a very weak December reading, leaving overall sales growth flat on the two months since November, the Office for National Statistics said Friday. The data was better than expectations and offers a first glimpse suggesting the technical recession at the end of 2024 may be a short, shallow affair. Sales ex-fuel rose 3.2% on month after a 3.3% decline in December. (see MNI INTERVIEW: Bright Spots In UK Growth Outlook-ONS's Fitzner)
“After a very weak December, retail sales rebounded in January with the largest monthly rise since April 2021," Heather Bovill, DeputyDirector for Surveys and Economic Indicators at the ONS, with sales recovering from the biggest m/m decline since December 2021. However, overall sales remain below pre-pandemic levels.
The data will offer some solace to the Bank of England, although retail sales ar often seen as 'mood music' rather than a hard indicator by the MPC given the volatility of the series. MPC member Swati Dhingra will discuss the UK economic outlook at an MNI Connect even on Feb 21. (see MNI INVITE: Livestreamed MNI Connect VC with BoE Dhingra On Feb 21)