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MNI CBR Preview: December 2022 - Cooling Inflation Provides Room to Hold

Executive summary:

  • CBR seen keeping rates unchanged at 7.50%, with little change in the economic backdrop
  • Inflation has cooled from 13.7% Y/Y in October to 12.0% and growth remains weak after the partial mobilisation order
  • The governor's view on counteracting the EU oil price cap could be key for policy in 2023
See full MNI Preview including sell-side analyst views here:


The CBR offered little forward monetary guidance in its previous statement but highlighted that the path of policy would be dependent on inflation dynamics as well as developments to external and domestic events. Since then, inflation has continued to cool from 13.7% Y/Y in October to 12.0% in November. Similarly, Q3 GDP released at - 4.0% in-line with expectations.

While the economy has stabilised following the partial mobilisation order in October/November, uncertainty remains regarding the adjustment of the economy and the Ruble (the strength of which has been limiting inflation) to the EU oil price cap.
The extent to which this will hamper growth and inflation in 2023 remains unknown for now, and the CBR’s view on the topic will be carefully watched in the post-decision press conference.

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